Escalation in Afghanistan and its environs
The terrorist group "Islamic State" (ISIL, banned in the Russian Federation)) He is the main ideological opponent of the radical Islamist movement "Taliban" in Afghanistan (banned in the Russian Federation). The goal of the ISIS regional unit, known as ISIS-Khorasan (banned in Russia), remains to undermine the authority and ultimately overthrow the Taliban government.
The recent ISIS-Khorasan attacks on the territory of Afghanistan and its neighboring States are part of a set of measures to delegitimize the Taliban regime and prevent the recognition of their government at the international level.
A series of attacks on the territories of states bordering Afghanistan signal that ISIS-Khorasan is ready to bring terrorist activities to the international level. The group is trying to attract local Uzbek and Tajik jihadists, making it clear that it will support their efforts in the fight against their governments. ISIS-Khorasan is increasingly carrying out attacks on the territories of neighboring States as part of its plan to overthrow the Taliban government.
In recent months, the group has carried out a series of attacks in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Pakistan. Some of them were part of the global operation of the "Islamic State" called "Revenge of the two Sheikhs". The beginning of this campaign was announced on April 17 by the representative of ISIS Abu Umar al-Muhajir, calling on supporters of the organization to carry out terrorist attacks to avenge the death of the late leader of ISIS Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi al-Kureishi and the late official representative of the group Abu Hamza al-Kureishi.
The attacks in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan demonstrate a growing threat to these countries. Nevertheless, the Taliban government continues to downplay the threat from ISIS-Khorasan. In fact, it pays primary attention to the threat from opposition groups that do not belong to ISIS.
Uzbekistan
ISIS-Khorasan first attacked targets in Uzbekistan on April 18. Militants fired ten 107-mm rockets from the territory of Northern Afghanistan in the direction of the Uzbek city of Termez. The missiles were allegedly aimed at Uzbek military facilities, but probably did not cause any damage. It is noteworthy that both the Taliban and the Uzbek government denied the fact of the attack. But soon after, the Uzbek military launched at least 35 helicopters and several planes along the border with Afghanistan in order to demonstrate force.
ISIS-Khorasan probably carried out this attack to attract the attention of Uzbek militants and, possibly, to encourage the Uzbek Taliban to switch sides. ISIS-Khorasan has achieved some success recruiting their commanders in 2015 in the province of Jowzjan.
In mid-January, units of the Uzbek Taliban in the Afghan province of Faryab rebelled against the central leadership, as a result of which relations between them remain tense to this day. ISIS-Khorasan is trying to use this split to strengthen the fragmentation of the Taliban movement.
TAJIKISTAN
ISIS-Khorasan first attacked targets in Tajikistan on May 7. This indirectly indicates that the group will continue to carry out transnational attacks after the completion of the "Revenge of the Two Sheikhs" campaign. As in the case of Uzbekistan, ISIS-Khorasan militants fired seven rockets at unidentified Tajik military facilities along the Afghan border. The rockets were fired from the Khwaja Ghar area (Takhar Province) towards Tajikistan, but did not seem to cause significant damage.
Tajikistan denied that the attack had taken place. But he admitted that the shells ended up on his side of the border as a result of an alleged exchange of fire between the Taliban and ISIS-Khorasan militants. Tajik jihadist groups, such as Jamaat Ansarullah, operate under the Taliban flag along the border with the Afghan province of Badakhshan. ISIS-Khorasan is trying to encourage Tajik jihadists to side with ISIS, demonstrating that it can carry out attacks against the government of Tajikistan.
PAKISTAN
ISIS-Khorasan operations in Pakistan continue to target government security forces as well as Taliban commanders. ISIS-Khorasan persecuted the leaders of the Haqqani Network (banned in the Russian Federation) and commanders of the Afghan Taliban, as well as activists and religious figures of the Pakistani political party Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam, associated with the Taliban.
Unlike the Central Asian countries, the activity of ISIS-Khorasan in Pakistan is not something new. Having broken away from the Pakistani Taliban at one time, ISIS-Khorasan has been present in Pakistan for a long time and periodically carries out attacks in the tribal areas of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province. The group also continues to attack religious minorities in Pakistan, especially in Peshawar.
The organization of the Pakistani Taliban "Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan" (TTP, banned in the Russian Federation) is changing its propaganda strategy, making it more focused on Pashtuns and thereby emphasizing independence from government forces. ISIS-Khorasan may use Pashtun problems, as well as recent negotiations between the TTP and the government of Pakistan, to undermine the authority of Pakistani The Taliban are among other jihadists in the region. The group may also try to break away from the TPP the most marginal elements who prefer a transnational approach to terrorist activities.
PROPAGANDA IN THE MEDIA
In addition to overt terrorist activities, ISIS-Khorasan is hindering the Taliban's efforts to gain international recognition through propaganda in the media. Since February 2022, the group has increased the volume of publications in Uzbek, Tajik and Kyrgyz languages. Its news service, The Voice of Khorasan, made a report in English on May 4, which spoke about the recent attack on Uzbekistan. The message also condemned the leadership of the Taliban movement for non-compliance with guarantees under the Doha Agreement.
This rhetoric indicates that ISIS-Khorasan intends to undermine the international community's confidence in the Taliban's ability to control the security sphere in Afghanistan. This, in turn, can destroy their already shaky prospects for international recognition.
The group's attacks on Uzbekistan and Tajikistan demonstrate both its capabilities and intentions. They should encourage Uzbek and Tajik jihadists, whose ultimate goal is to overthrow their governments, to side with ISIS–Khorasan, not the Taliban. If Uzbekistan and Tajikistan respond to these threats by force, they will exacerbate tensions within the Taliban movement, which will support the efforts of ISIS-Khorasan to recruit radical elements.
"THE REVENGE OF TWO SHEIKHS"
From April 17 to May 3, 11 ISIS offshoots in Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia carried out terrorist attacks in memory of their late leaders as part of Operation Revenge of the Two Sheikhs.
Globally, this campaign has not led to significant changes in the capabilities of ISIS. But ISIS-Khorasan became one of the units that demonstrated the expansion of its area of activity. The group carried out about 33 attacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan from April 17 to May 1. In the period from April 1 to April 16, at least 4 attacks were committed, and their total number in April 2022 was approximately 37. Most of them were directed against militants and Taliban officials.
But the most high-profile ISIS-Khorasan attacks, which led to a large number of victims and attracted media attention, were directed against ethnic and religious minorities, in particular against the Hazaras. No one has claimed responsibility for some of the attacks, including attacks on a school and a Sufi mosque in Kabul. But all signs point to the similarity of these attacks with previous ISIS-Khorasan terrorist attacks. Perhaps its leadership intends to confuse and support the arguments of the non-ISIS opposition that the Taliban are responsible for violence against religious minorities in Afghanistan.
The confusion will help ISIS-Khorasan drive a wedge between minority communities and the Taliban government. Experts agree that the group's capabilities are growing in the northern regions of Afghanistan due to pronounced internal political instability. A series of terrorist attacks in Mazar-I-Sharif and Kunduz during the operation "Revenge of the Two Sheikhs" indicates that ISIS-Khorasan is optimizing its capabilities. The attacks carried out as part of the operation in Balkh, Kunduz and Kabul mainly targeted civilian targets. Attacks outside the area were mainly directed against Taliban militants. Among the civilian targets were schools, mosques and humanitarian missions.
The reappearance of ISIS-Khorasan flags in Darzab district (Jowzjan province) indicates that the group's presence here may increase, despite the operations to suppress it carried out by the Taliban in early December 2021. ISIS-Khorasan operated in the area from 2015 to 2018, until it was defeated by the Taliban offensive and decided to surrender to the then Afghan government.
Perhaps the militants who had previously surrendered escaped from prisons after the collapse of the Afghan government and rejoined the ranks of the group. The Taliban government is obviously unable to contain ISIS-Khorasan, but continues to insist that the group is being defeated. Although the terrorist attacks carried out by its militants outside Afghanistan exacerbate the concern of the international community. The Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Taliban government announced on April 26 that ISIS-Khorasan has been "eliminated by 98%", and the fears of neighboring states are unfounded. This rhetoric is probably aimed at an external audience and seeks to reassure neighboring States that are increasingly concerned about the inability of the Taliban government to guarantee security in Afghanistan.
OTHER THREATS
It seems that the Taliban leadership is giving priority attention to the threat from the opposition, which is not part of ISIS. According to various estimates, the Ministry of Defense of the Taliban mobilized from 3 to 4 thousand troops from southern Afghanistan in response to the offensive of the National Resistance Front (FTS) in the Panjshir Gorge in early May.
Unlike ISIS-Khorasan, the Federal Tax Service tried to seize direct control over the territory. In this regard, the Taliban may give priority to operations against the Federal Tax Service, since this association, while not radical, is more likely than ISIS-Khorasan to receive foreign support in the future.
The Taliban government is facing security threats from both ISIS-Khorasan and non-ISIS opposition forces. For this reason, it is unlikely that the Taliban are able to adequately suppress the extremist activities of ISIS-Khorasan.
Due to the lack of sufficient pressure, the group will continue to gain strength in Afghanistan and will probably continue to attack neighboring countries.
Larisa Shashok
Larisa Aleksandrovna Shashok is a teacher at MGIMO (U) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation.
