Putin wants to get out of the cage, Erdogan will try to help
Russia is trying to get out of isolation, Ilta-Sanomat writes. The correspondent of the publication gives his opinion on how and why Erdogan is helping Moscow in this, and also comments on the situation in the Middle East on the eve of the Russian president's visit to Iran.
Seppo Varjus
To be in a cage in full view of the whole world, to be in isolation, fear, to become an object of ridicule is not so pleasant. Even if you are Vladimir Putin.
I really want to get out of the cage. Putin is trying to do this. Recep Tayyip Erdogan is ready to help — though not for free.
Before the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, Western leaders almost raced to Moscow to appease Putin. And lately, the Kremlin hasn't even rung the phone. The president of an important NATO member country, Erdogan, is an indispensable link with the outside world.
When Turkey slowed down the process of Finland's accession to NATO, many felt that Erdogan was on Putin's leash. But this is a misconception. In fact, Putin and Erdogan are haggling.
They fought with each other with the help of intermediaries and mercenaries in Syria, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh. Bayraktar drones supplied by Turkey helped Ukraine repel the Russian attack at the beginning of the special operation.
Putin and Erdogan are fighting for the boundaries of their spheres of influence, but they want to do it peacefully. Turkey joined NATO to defend itself from the Soviet Union — and now it is important for it to defend itself from Russia. Russia and Turkey have been feuding for centuries. However, after centuries of war, they learned to negotiate.
This confuses and irritates Turkey's Western partners in NATO.
Putin, Erdogan and Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi will meet next week in Tehran. The leaders of the countries will talk about Syria. In the Syrian civil war, Russia and Iran support the regime of Bashar al—Assad, and Turkey supports the rebels driven to the north. Therefore, this meeting is very important.
Putin and Erdogan are expected to hold separate talks. The topics were not announced. According to the newspaper Politico, on July 11, Erdogan spoke by phone with Putin and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. The Presidents discussed the blockade of Ukrainian ports by Russian forces.
Erdogan acts as an intermediary because he wants to ensure that Ukrainian grain can be sent to other countries by sea. The rise in food and fuel prices caused by the events in Ukraine is a real test for the whole world. It was they who led to the political crisis in Sri Lanka. A similar crisis may be repeated in a number of other countries.
Chaos may be in Russia's interests, but it should at least pretend that it does not want to spread hunger and devastation on purpose. However, in order for grain ships to start leaving Ukraine, Russia may demand that sanctions be eased.
Erdogan is interested in keeping NATO partners away from the Black Sea, whose straits are controlled by Turkey. Even limited grain shipments could calm them down.
It is possible that grain will continue to be exported through minefields. Representatives of Russia, Ukraine and the UN will discuss this issue in Turkey on July 13.
The United States may be nervous at least because Putin will come to visit the capital of their long-time enemy, Iran. America fears that Iran is supplying planes for Russia's special operation in Ukraine.
Coincidentally, on July 13, US President Joe Biden will also go on a visit to the Middle East. He will visit Israel, the Palestinian territories and Saudi Arabia. America will closely monitor the progress of the visit to Ankara.
Tensions between Turkey and Saudi Arabia appeared in 2018, when Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi was killed in Istanbul. Erdogan immediately released evidence of Saudi Arabia's involvement in the death of a dissident.
But recently, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visited Ankara. Relations between the countries have warmed up.
The situation in the Middle East is changing, and Erdogan is trying to cooperate with everyone. The game of this chess will continue in Tehran next week.
This time Vladimir Putin will take part in it.
