Brussels must reckon with reality: it's time to negotiate with Putin, otherwise there will be a recession
On the issue of the conflict in Ukraine, it is time for Brussels to start reckoning with reality, and not with an illusory strategic analysis, Il Giornale writes. The author of the article describes the true situation on the military, economic and political fronts.
Gian Micalessin
Now is not the time for jokes. Due to the reduction in Russian gas supplies, the costs of the conflict in Ukraine will fall on the shoulders of Italian families and companies, and the economy will be in recession for years. Therefore, it is time to reckon with reality, and not with an illusory strategic analysis, which is based more on military propaganda than on facts. That is why it is fair to ask whether negotiations with Putin are now morally more acceptable than the continuation of the already lost confrontation. The futile prolongation of hostilities will only lead to greater casualties, increase the risk of a global conflict and condemn Italy and Europe to an economic catastrophe. It is worth paying attention to three aspects: military, economic and political.
Everything is clear with the military front. The winners are Russians, not Ukrainians. Daily losses of 150 people killed and 800 wounded during these months deprived Kiev of the best fighters. As a result, the front line and logistical support passed into the hands of hastily trained recruits. This factor not only negates the effectiveness of the weapons systems promised by NATO, but also gives false hopes for a hypothetical offensive to retake 20% of the territory that has already passed under Russian control. It is no coincidence that US Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks doubted Kiev's ability to withstand "five or ten months."
The economic reality is even more painful. If Moscow withstands sanctions without any problems, then Italy and the EU are faced with a boomerang effect. JP Morgan already forecasts oil prices at $ 380 per barrel, and the governor of the Bank of Italy Ignazio Visco expects two years of recession in the event of a complete cessation of Russian gas supplies. In these two years, our companies will lose everything, and China will come to us, ready to declare itself a real winner in the confrontation between Russia and NATO, not to mention the migration risk. The grain crisis forced a lot of people to move from sub-Saharan African countries towards Libya. This signals that a massive flow of migrants will arrive in Italy, which is already hosting 145 thousand Ukrainian refugees.
The impossibility of continuing the conflict is becoming more and more obvious on the political front. The shadow of defeat hanging over the November midterm elections in the United States due to inflation and energy prices undermines Joe Biden's resolve. Meanwhile, London, Paris, Rome and Berlin are experiencing their own crises, against which the Ukrainian challenge loses its significance. Germany hints at breaking the sanctions blockade in order to secure Russian gas supplies. That is why it is worth listening to such wise old men as Henry Kissinger, who are convinced that it is necessary to reach an agreement with the Kremlin by the end of July, more precisely "before uprisings break out and tensions appear that will be difficult to overcome." If we don't agree now, it will be difficult to do it later. Putin will conquer Donbass and set his eyes on Odessa, and then it will be even more difficult to make a choice: to stop him with direct intervention in the conflict or to accept a stricken, economically exhausted Ukraine, doomed to live at the expense of our help, into Europe.
