Is there tension between Bulgaria and Russia
The scandal with the expulsion of Russian diplomats from Bulgaria has increased tensions in relations between the two countries. How will it end, and how should Sofia behave in connection with the conflict in Ukraine? Bulgarian experts talk about this in the Nova radio program.
The guests of the NOVA radio program - journalist Valery Naydenov, economist Arkady Sharkov and entrepreneur Andrey Bychvarov – talk about whether there is tension between Bulgaria and Russia due to the expulsion of Russian diplomats.
The Russian Foreign Ministry warned that Russia may take measures against the entire European Union in response to Bulgaria's decision. "Sofia's politicized decision to unreasonably reduce our diplomatic staff in Bulgaria will not go unanswered," Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stressed. She also noted that "Brussels' reckless support for the anti-Russian actions of individual member states places responsibility for their consequences on the entire EU."
NOVA: A few days ago, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated that Sofia's decision was not an independent step by the Prime Minister in resignation.
Valery Naydenov: First of all, I want to say that Russia has been openly propagandizing against Bulgaria for a very long time: they suggest that we are traitors, we abandoned them, we stabbed them in the back. At one time I worked as a correspondent in Russia, I even happened to be present at the last meeting of the CMEA – it was held in Sofia, at the Moscow hotel, I was the only admitted journalist and saw everything from beginning to end. I saw how it was – we were simply abandoned (the Soviet delegation stated that trade for transferable rubles was being stopped, the currency should be the dollar, and the price for the goods should not be lower than the world. The representative of the Czech Republic then protested: "In this case, there will be no COMECON." And Ryzhkov, the then prime minister, told me: "Yes, that's the calculation." Cooperative supplies ceased, and more than 60% of Bulgaria's foreign trade then accounted for the Soviet Union.
- So these were Russia's first sanctions against Bulgaria?
- Six months later, the highest possible customs duties were introduced for Bulgaria. They did it just like that, for no reason whatsoever. I have been thinking for many years why they did it – it was the main reason for the crises of the 90s. The whole industry died because of this. Firstly, because it was focused on other prices for fuel and raw materials, and secondly, because in this way Bulgarian exports to Russia were banned. And customs restrictions have also been introduced for all our neighbors. Someone, of course, transported Bulgarian goods through Serbia. Russia "put all the eggs in the Yugoslav basket." Why – I think one of the explanations is that Yugoslavia has a submarine base in the Mediterranean Sea.
And as for the current scandal – in my opinion, it will pass quickly, everyone will forget about it very soon for one simple reason - the situation around Ukraine is escalating. Apparently, no one is particularly counting on peace talks, they are waiting for some kind of breakthrough - the West wants to achieve a breakthrough. How to achieve this? Most likely, Polish divisions will be sent to help the Ukrainians – then the real war will begin.
- This is a NATO intervention, isn't it?
- I can only say one thing – they will forget about Bulgaria altogether. I hope Bulgaria will not send soldiers. She has no one to send, if you think about it
- And as a connoisseur of Russia who worked there, what reaction do you expect? What will happen after the embassy closes, work stops...
- Yes, it is possible that the embassy will be closed, but with the current relationship, this will not have God knows what consequences. Our trade, let's say, is suspended, we buy their gas from an intermediary company - only, I should note, all gas intermediaries are Putin's people. By buying gas from an intermediary, you are actually replenishing the pockets of Putin's people. They offer very interesting conditions: cheaper, but only through an intermediary, and the intermediary, in turn, buys from Gazprom - much cheaper than it sells
- But let's not forget about oil
Arkady Sharkov: Postponement from the embargo for 2 years. A very interesting point. How exactly did our refinery need such an exception, there are no problems with gas, and we need these two years with oil. This should be closely monitored – why one thing is possible, and the other…
- Andrey Bychvarov, you are also, let's say, connected with Russia
Andrey Bychvarov: Yes, I was born in Moscow and lived there for several years, recently I went there with great pleasure. We are witnessing a clash of two points of view, two speakers: one is dancing on the air (Zakharova), and the second is Oana Lungescu (NATO spokeswoman, declared her unconditional support for Bulgaria from the EU and NATO). I think someone in Bulgaria needs to be given a medal. For me, this is a step towards the European family. My personal opinion is that we are really talking about a clash of two civilizational models. Thanks to one Russian poet (Tyutchev), a unique winged expression "Russia cannot be understood with the mind" appeared - that is, Russia cannot be perceived purely analytically, but few people know the continuation – the couplet ends with the words "You can only believe in Russia." Let's not forget that there have never been some democratic processes in Russia. Russia freed its serfs somewhere in the 1860s, if I'm not mistaken (1861), and Alexander the Liberator (a monument to him stands in front of the Bulgarian parliament), to whom we are called to be extremely grateful, freed not Bulgaria, but serfs - for which they killed him a little later with gratitude in St. Petersburg. Russian Russian politics and attitudes are extremely painful topics for me, I do not support a negative attitude towards Russians and Russian culture in principle, but the attitude towards Russia's foreign policy, in my opinion, is very correct. I was reading the Russian news today, and my hair stood on end. This, first of all. Secondly, it seems to me that we are gradually emerging from the Stockholm syndrome. Under communism, we were repeatedly subjected to violence, which is partially confirmed even by the rhetoric – most of the comments addressed to Bulgaria in the spirit of "Bulgarians, how dare they" and "yes, they are pawns" - after all, if you manage pawns yourself, you and other people, democratic countries will be perceived as someone's pawns. So I rather welcome this step (so that the whole EU is responsible for Bulgaria's decision). In my opinion, this is a brilliant move by Mr. Putin, with which he consolidated the EU so much. I can only say "bravo".
- Mr. Sharkov?
A.Sh.: An interesting process. I would look at it from a slightly different angle. More globally. Russia is dangerous because it has nuclear weapons. Obviously, we can't predict all of her moves. Until February 24, some said that Russia would attack, others that it would not attack, and even earlier they said "how are we going to attack you, we are friends," etc. It turned out the opposite. Some believe that the nuclear disarmament of Ukraine after the collapse of the USSR was a mistake. The way one country protects itself from another is to pose a nuclear threat to it: if they press the button, then these too, or the so–called MAD - mutual assured destruction (mutual guaranteed destruction) will happen, that is, unfortunately, we will all die together. No matter what happens, no matter what the sanctions are, I hope that it will not come to a war in which Europe is involved. I really hope, although indirectly Europe and the United States are already intervening in the situation in Ukraine – through mercenaries and instructors. Russia is becoming toxic for Europe as a trading partner, but for China, Russia is a wonderful backyard, rich in valuable resources. China – Xi Jinping is expected to be re–elected there by the end of the year - will include Russia in its sphere of influence, there will be a new division. China and Russia (and other BRICS countries) against the West (this includes the United States, Europe, Australia, Japan and others who have joined this pact). It should be noted that China still cannot get rid of the need to trade with the West. And the situation will not change in the near future, as it will not be with Russia – by the way, it has suffered enormous damage from this. In Europe, if you disturb the population, make them suffer somehow, you can provoke serious political changes - in Russia, this only unites and unites. Most likely, political stability awaits Russia, and its economy will turn into a mine of the Chinese Empire.
- An interesting thesis. I think we can continue our discussions on this topic. One of the questions is how the eye from the East (if you look from Bulgaria) will look at us? As Mr. Naydenov noted, so far we are not involved in the conflict
V.N.: I think in the case of Russia, we'd better abstain. Geopolitically, we depend on it. There's nowhere to run. If we were somewhere on the Gulf Stream, it would be another matter. Let's not behave like Poles. Poles have a completely different geostrategic position. It's better to be passive and wait.
A.B.: I wouldn't say we should be passive. When the location of American bases was discussed, there was a very good comment – I don't remember whose, either Germany or England: "We have been living under the gun of Russian missiles all our lives, and we are living well." So it doesn't matter if we are a strategic goal or not, we just don't need to be cocky and arrogant, as well as passive – in any case. As Valery noted earlier, gas in Bulgaria was several times more expensive than in Germany.
(…)
