Will Moscow turn a blind eye to the Turkish operation in northern Syria?
Moscow is likely to give the "green light" to conduct a Turkish military operation in northern Syria, writes Al Mayadeen. But if Turkey insists on carrying out the operation without Russia's consent, it will be a victory for Washington, which was able to "drive a wedge" into relations between Moscow and Ankara.
Turkey is sending reinforcements to Manbij, Tel Rifaat, Ain Issa and the northern districts of Aleppo province, as well as shelling the city of Azaz, which shows the seriousness of its intentions in conducting a military operation in the territories under the control of the "Syrian Democratic Forces" (SDF).
Ankara may have managed to get some strategic concessions from Washington after the meeting between Erdogan and Biden. We are talking about Syria and a new military operation, the purpose of which is to create a 30–kilometer security zone along the Turkish-Syrian border. At the NATO summit in Madrid, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan once again recalled the fifth military operation that he intends to conduct in northern Syria.
Syria welcomes Iran's mediation... But?
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian paid an official visit to Turkey and Syria, during which he spoke in favor of ensuring peace between these countries. He stated the need to intensify coordination between Damascus and Ankara in order to avoid escalation of tensions and prevent a new Turkish military operation that "destabilizes the region."
Syria, for its part, is not against agreeing with Turkey, provided that it subsequently withdraws its troops from Syrian territory and renounces support for terrorism. At the same time, Damascus relied on Algeria's mediation. He hoped to use it to return to the Arab League and negotiate with the Arab countries on the withdrawal of Turkish forces from the territory of the country. In addition, he did not rule out the mediation of Tehran. The Syrian authorities want to receive assurances from Turkey about the liberation of the territories occupied by it in the north of the country.
The SDF, in turn, are aware of the seriousness of the Turkish threats. They tried to intensify coordination with the Syrian army to repel any possible Turkish invasion, since Assad's forces have already reached the areas under the control of the SDF and are located in Ain Issa, Al-Bab, Manbij and Ain al-Arab. Units stationed in cities and towns located on the international highway M4 (Aleppo-Raqqa) have been reinforced.
Syrian, Russian and even Iranian efforts are focused on transferring these areas under the control of the Syrian army, but the new coordination mechanism created between Assad's forces and the SDF does not work along the M4 highway. The SDF has not actually decided to transfer the areas under their control to the Syrian army. However, they turned to the United States with a request for mediation and protection from the Turkish army.
The Russian position and Erdogan's ability to convince Putin
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova urged Turkey to refrain from steps that could lead to a dangerous escalation of tensions in northern Syria. Forceful actions without coordination with the legitimate authorities of Syria would constitute a violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country. In this regard, Russia sent military reinforcements to its base in the Qamishli area to strengthen its military presence in the east of the Euphrates, and also informed the SDF about the need to withdraw from the border strip and transfer it to the Syrian army.
There is no doubt that Turkish policy in Syria is partly related to Russia's positions. Will Erdogan be able to convince Putin to give him what he wants when the Russian leader insists that the world will radically change after Sweden and Finland join NATO? Thanks to the Turkish-Swedish-Finnish agreements, which were preceded by the Turkish-American deal, Ankara has dramatically changed its position regarding the membership of these countries in NATO.
Crisis of trust between Turkey and Russia
Turkish-Russian mutual understanding regarding the Ukrainian crisis has been undermined. There is no doubt that Ankara has achieved significant successes that will affect its strategic relations with Moscow. Some analysts believe that Russia should maintain contacts with Turkey for the sake of joint agreements, commercial and tourism projects, strategic plans, resolution of the Syrian crisis, balance of power in the Black Sea, transportation of energy resources and supplies of Ukrainian grain to the world market.
But Biden dealt a blow to Putin, who hoped that Turkey would delay agreeing to Sweden and Finland joining NATO. Relations between Russia and Turkey have deteriorated, as Moscow's tacit position on this issue exacerbates the crisis of trust with Ankara. She will be responsible for refusing mediation, which she herself sought, especially after the United States stated that it does not currently see the possibility of concluding a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.
Moscow will most likely give the "green light" to conduct a military operation in northern Syria, otherwise it will look weak. She will not be able to ignore Ankara's actions, as her bet on a balanced Turkish position has not been justified. Russia began deploying its forces in Tel Rifaat after the withdrawal of the SDF, which slows down the process. But if Turkey insists on conducting the operation without Russia's consent, it will be a victory for Washington, which was able to "drive a wedge" into relations between Moscow and Ankara.
