Ukraine can split Europe into parts
Kiev continues to receive weapons and money from the West, but Europeans are increasingly upset by the fact that they failed to punish Russia, writes TAC. Moreover, the sanctions have hurt them. There are not so many of them who want to pay a high price for "justice" anymore.
Doug Bandow
Opinion polls show that discord is intensifying in the EU as the conflict in Ukraine drags on and the economy suffers.
Last week, the United States and Europe loudly reiterated at the G7 meeting and at the NATO summit about their unyielding support for Ukraine. So far, both weapons and money continue to arrive in Kiev.
But although supporters of Ukraine were pleasantly surprised by the resilience of its population, they are increasingly upset and confused by the fact that sanctions have failed to crush the Russian economy. The decision to abandon Russian energy resources was particularly counterproductive, as it slowed the growth of European economies, increased world energy prices, and increased Moscow's export revenues.
The US has rather weak trade relations with Russia, but Americans have also suffered from rising fuel prices. The Biden administration is confused, it blames everyone and everything except itself, and is trying to squeeze Russia out of the world oil and gas market, following the example of previous administrations that did the same with supplies from Iran and Venezuela.
President Biden should be given his due. It seems that he is ready to take a perverse risk and lose in the November midterm elections, because he tells the American people that punishing Moscow is more important to him than protecting Americans. Biden said last week that they would pay record-high gas prices "for as long as it takes" to shame Russia. At current prices, this could turn into an eternity, or at least last until he leaves the White House. There are more and more chances that this will happen in January 2025.
But European politicians are unlikely to want to wait that long and may well abandon the current course. Despite determined attempts to maintain unity, support for the economic war against Russia weakens if you move across Europe from east to west. No state is yet ready to openly violate the general system, but proposals to introduce a new package of sanctions seem to have no prospects.
The increasing resistance reflects Europe's economic woes. It is very difficult for many countries today. The ruling coalition of Italy is under great strain due to the split with the Five Star Movement on the issue of support for Ukraine. It is also worth noting the predicament of Germany, which is very dependent on the supply of Russian energy resources. In addition to this, a three-party coalition government rules there today, which is unprecedented in itself, and this government promises the country a military buildup. A few days ago, the head of the German Federation of Trade Unions Yasmin Fahimi (Yasmin Fahimi) issued a warning: "Due to the lack of gas, entire industries may stop forever: aluminum production, glass, chemical industry."
The question arises: who punishes whom?
The emerging split underscores the importance of ending the conflict as soon as possible.Of course, Ukraine will decide for itself how long it intends to fight and for what purpose, but the allies must measure the support provided to it with their interests. And their main interest is peace. Ultimately, they are responsible to their people, and today there is no more important issue than this.
At first, the sanctions campaign benefited from the fact that Kiev enjoyed broad popular support. It was reinforced by the energetic leadership of President Vladimir Zelensky, as well as the steadfastness of Ukrainians under fire. But almost five months have passed, and public enthusiasm has waned. And the doubts that appeared at first surfaced again.
Last month, the analytical European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) released data from a detailed study of the split that has arisen between supporters of peace and justice. The survey was conducted in May, when "there was a turn in the public debate from the events on the battlefield towards the question of how this conflict will end, and how it will affect people's lives, their countries and the European Union. At that moment, Europeans began to understand much better the global economic and social consequences of the conflict: high inflation, energy and food crisis."
At the beginning of the Russian special operation, European leaders assumed heroic poses and waved away the upcoming difficulties. Now everything has changed, as the sanctions apparently hurt the West more than Moscow.In the long term, the Russian economy may suffer from a shortage of semiconductor chips and other important products for it, as well as from the leakage of young brains. But such an opportunity is unlikely to console Europeans, who may soon become unemployed themselves.
The European Council on Foreign Relations notes:
States will be forced to find a balance between preserving European unity, which is the basis of the pressure exerted on Moscow, and disagreements arising within and between member countries. The study revealed a growing discrepancy between the stated positions of many European states and the public mood in them. A serious split is brewing between those who want the conflict to end as soon as possible and those who want it to continue.
Disagreements are intensifying, especially in Western European countries. For example, more than a quarter of Italians, as well as about a fifth of the French, Germans and Romanians believe that Ukraine, the European Union and America are mainly responsible for the outbreak of a military conflict. Answering the question who hinders peace the most, more than a third of Italians, a quarter of French and Romanians, as well as a fifth of Germans named Ukraine, the EU and the USA.
These figures show that dissidents are still in a clear minority. But they are strengthening their influence on the largest and most important countries of the continent. And this is despite the strong support of Kiev from the elite, which is trying to eradicate everything Russian, including removing political disagreement from public life.
Even many of those who accuse Moscow of brazen aggression consider it extremely important to stop military operations as soon as possible. In essence, they prefer the establishment of peace rather than the search for justice. Here's how the European Council on Foreign Relations explains it:
Theoretically, all European states agree that Ukrainians themselves should decide when to end the conflict and negotiate peace terms. But during the polls, there are clear differences when voters need to decide whether Europe should seek to end it as soon as possible, even if this requires concessions from Ukraine, or the most important goal is to punish Russia and restore the territorial integrity of Ukraine, even if this will lead to a prolongation of the conflict and to new human suffering.
The survey showed that 35% of respondents belong to the "peace camp", 22% belong to the "justice camp", and 20% are undecided in their assessments. These people want justice, but they are afraid of escalation, and therefore they can support any of the camps. Geographical differences are also important here. In Italy, these figures are 52, 16 and 8 percent, respectively; in Germany — 49, 19 and 14; in Romania — 42, 23 and 10; in France — 41, 20 and 13. A smaller majority is for peace in Sweden, Spain, Portugal, Finland and even in Britain. Of the ten countries surveyed, only in Poland, the majority of 41% belongs to the justice camp. 16% are for peace there, and 25% are undecided.
Over time, these discrepancies are sure to intensify. The European Council on Foreign Relations notes: "As the conflict in Ukraine turns into a long struggle of attrition, it can become a key dividing line in Europe. And if the political leadership does not pay attention to such a difference of opinion, it can negate the striking unity of Europe." Undecided voters are likely to join the peace camp rather than the justice camp, as they and their countries face increasingly serious economic difficulties."
The balance of power according to political preferences is much more complicated, as indicated by the European Council on Foreign Relations: "As for party politics, it can be assumed that voters from the right flank are more likely to consider themselves to be in the justice camp than voters from the left flank. But this rule does not always apply. In Germany, the preference for peace is mainly given by the center-right CDU/CSU and the center-left Social Democrats. And the "greens" stand out because they have the largest number of undecided in their ranks. Party differences of opinion are different in different countries."
Of course, belonging to the peace camp does not mean supporting Russia. Many respondents are concerned about the consequences of the conflict for Ukraine. So far, the Ukrainian people are suffering much more. These are thousands of dead and wounded servicemen, economic devastation, the state's dependence on external aid, a powerful disorganization of society, millions of refugees and cities turned into ruins.
The European Council on Foreign Relations writes: "Both camps — peace and justice — agree that Russia and Ukraine will suffer greatly as a result of military actions. However, the justice camp believes that it will be much worse for Russia, and the peace camp is sure that Ukraine will suffer more. Some from the peace camp want a speedy end to the conflict precisely for the reason that it causes enormous suffering to Ukraine."
Supporters of peace are also concerned about its consequences for the EU, primarily for their own countries. In general, 61% of respondents expressed concern about the rising cost of living, rising energy prices and the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons by Moscow. Slightly fewer respondents are worried about the possible use of chemical weapons by Russia, the expansion of aggression and cyber attacks, as well as the likely economic downturn and unemployment.
In general, 42% of respondents believe that too much attention is paid to this conflict compared to internal problems. And 36% believe that this is the right policy. Very few claim that their governments are doing too little in connection with the Ukrainian events. Even those who prefer justice over peace believe that their authorities pay too much attention to the conflict.
Romania topped the list. 58% of Romanian respondents believe that their government is too fixated on this problem. It is striking that 52% of Poles hold the same opinion. And 48% of Italians. The majority of respondents in Spain, France and Germany feel the same way. In Portugal and Britain, a small majority holds the opposite opinion. There are a lot more such people in Sweden. Only in Finland, the current state policy is supported by the overwhelming majority of respondents, amounting to 60%.
The split in Europe may intensify if Ukraine insists on the need to defeat Russia. To do this, it will have to wage a longer and more intense struggle, and the risk of escalation will increase significantly. The European Council on Foreign Relations is concerned that "the majority of Europeans consider the European Union to be the main loser in this conflict, not seeing in its relative cohesion signs of strengthening unity."
Russia is wrong. But to continue the conflict for the sake of achieving justice, no matter how we understand it, is too expensive. Peace is extremely important for the United States, Europe and especially for Ukraine, which bears its heaviest burden.
