The role of military theory against the background of the latest practice of warfare
I have carefully read the new monograph of the permanent author of "HBO" Alexander Alexandrovich Bartosh "Questions of the theory of hybrid warfare" (Moscow: Hotline-Telecom, 2022. 324 p.). Today, against the background of a special military operation in Ukraine, the main scientific idea of the work seems very relevant.
Knowledge and use of the laws and principles of hybrid warfare in politics and military affairs will contribute to the development and practical application of an offensive and defensive strategy of this type of military conflict in the interests of ensuring Russia's national security.
The author has conducted a comprehensive analysis of hybrid warfare. Since the beginning of the XXI century, it has turned into a new kind of interstate confrontation based on the complex application of force and non-force forms and methods of influencing the enemy. Despite the expansion of the practice of hybrid warfare, the theory of this type of armed conflict has not yet been fully developed.
For the first time, an attempt was made to formulate the laws and principles of hybrid warfare, key factors of the conflict were analyzed and interaction models were developed, the directions of development of the hybrid warfare technosphere, the issues of intelligence, information and psychological warfare and deterrence were investigated.
The features of a hybrid military conflict are highlighted, which provides for the creation of an environment of uncertainty, measures of economic impact, seizing the initiative and depriving the enemy of maneuver opportunities, manipulating the consciousness of the population during a "cognitive, informational, psychological, mental war". For these purposes, both traditional and asymmetric means and methods of struggle are used.
The necessity of a qualitative rethinking of the characteristics of military conflicts of the new generation, their strategies and ways of interaction, taking into account the following features, is substantiated.
Firstly, the transition from a linear to a nonlinear model of war is being implemented, based on the use of indirect asymmetric actions, which makes it possible to achieve significant, often strategic results due to limited impact.
Secondly, the system-forming elements that determine the content of the philosophy of war are changing: the essence of war, the main ideas, the science of war in general, etc.
Thirdly, taking into account the complex nature of hybrid warfare, the task of organizing comprehensive interaction of all forces and means involved in a military conflict is of particular importance.
The unique dimensions of hybrid warfare are formulated as a hidden and undefined conflict with a complex internal structure, proceeding in the form of an integrated military-political, economic, informational and psychological confrontation.
Hybrid warfare plays an important role in the formation of a modern operating environment, the configuration of which is influenced by the following interrelated trends:
– opponents challenge all areas, including cyberspace, space and the information environment, where the dominance of individual powers is not guaranteed;
– smaller armies are fighting on an expanded battlefield that is becoming increasingly deadly and hyperactive;
– it is more difficult for national states to impose their will in a politically, economically, culturally, technologically and strategically complex environment;
– a number of states skillfully compete below the level of armed conflict, which makes it difficult to contain;
– Russia's geopolitical opponents are widely using cognitive warfare and proxy warfare technologies as effective tools of hybrid warfare.
On the "escalation ladder" of the military conflict, hybrid warfare is assigned the role of a kind of turning point, having reached which the parties can decide to move from non-violent forms of confrontation to increasing the intensity of hostilities up to a global conflict. Hybrid threats as instruments of hybrid warfare are a flexible adaptive means of managing the escalation/de-escalation of an armed conflict.
The analysis of these and some other factors allowed us to move on to the task of formulating the laws and principles of hybrid warfare.
The content of the group of laws of hybrid warfare of the USA and NATO against Russia is determined by the following features:
– the global geopolitical nature of the conflict, as the United States seeks to defeat Russia as one of its main geopolitical opponents, the only one that can destroy America by armed means;
– the civilizational nature of the conflict, as the United States seeks primarily to weaken Russia, China and Iran as its most significant opponents, who, within their own cultural and ideological paradigm, deny American projects of globalization and liberalization;
– the permanent and universal nature of the conflict, which is due to the use of a strategy of exhaustion in hybrid warfare, which provides for a gradual transition from nonviolent actions in the political, economic, informational and psychological spheres to military operations. The strategy is designed for a long time and is implemented with varying intensity in specially created "gray zones" as theaters of hybrid warfare;
– the diffuse (hybrid) nature of the military conflict, in which all known non-nuclear means and methods of war are used, including the technologies of the "color revolution" as a catalyst for operations to accelerate the collapse of the state. The use of the color revolution as a catalyst is a synthesis of strategies of exhaustion and crushing;
– the mediated nature of the conflict through the use of a strategy of war by "someone else's hands" or proxy war as a tool to disguise the aggressor state.
The author points out that, taking into account the time frame of the hybrid war (many years and decades), its determining role in planning belongs to long-term strategies based on forecasting possible options for the outcome of the situation, on the ability to create and use an anticipatory reflection of reality associated with advance preparation for future possible changes in the operating environment.
Anticipatory reflection in the development of a hybrid war strategy is a long–term vision of the development of a military conflict based on a clearly structured sequence of actions leading to the goal.
The author refers to the laws of hybrid warfare as a new type of interstate confrontation:
– the law of using corrupt local elites as an instrument of weakening and collapse of the state;
– the law of the formation of the gray zone as a theater of hybrid war;
– the law of denial of the fact of hybrid warfare;
– the law of multi-sphere containment;
– the law of secrecy of the use of a complex of hybrid threats;
– the law of comprehensive coverage of the territory of the State during hybrid warfare operations, including outer space and cyberspace;
– the law of anticipatory reflection in the development of a hybrid war strategy;
– the law of priority of operations to provide cognitive destructive effects on the consciousness and psyche of people in order to accelerate the collapse of the state;
– the law of specificity of the development of the military technosphere of a hybrid military conflict.
The laws reflect the relative novelty of the phenomenon of hybrid warfare. Its strategy is based on the ability to synchronize in place, time, types and intensity the use of hybrid threats against the vulnerabilities of the victim State throughout its territory.
The principles that are used in the planning and conduct of a military conflict are inextricably linked with the laws of hybrid warfare. These principles include:
– the principle of full consideration of the factors that determine the capabilities of the enemy, including the strategic culture of the state/coalition, bottlenecks and vulnerabilities, weapons, forms and methods of conducting military operations;
– the principle of interaction;
– the principle of continuity of mutual information about the situation;
– the principle of continuous monitoring of the performance of tasks at the executive level;
– the principle of sustainable, flexible and continuous operation management;
– the principle of unity of views on the design, purpose and objectives of hybrid warfare as a whole and individual operations based on a single plan and plan;
– the principle of unity of command;
– the principle of conducting continuous reconnaissance and promptly communicating its results to interested forces and means;
– the principle of anticipating enemy actions;
– the principle of forecasting the development of the situation and flexible adaptation to changes.
The conclusion about hybrid warfare as an instrument of escalation of military conflicts is of great methodological importance. The complex of the most important factors of hybrid warfare is thoroughly investigated: temporal, spatial, surprise factor, strategic mobility factor.
For the first time, the key role of using the criticality factor in the development of a hybrid war strategy and its individual operations in the administrative, political, financial, economic, cultural, ideological and military spheres is substantiated.
In relation to the theory of hybrid warfare, the concept of "criticality nodes" is introduced. The role of the factor of anticipatory reflection of probable military-political situations as a system-forming factor for planning a military conflict is shown.
The definition of "gray zones" as theaters of hybrid warfare is justified. Specific requirements are formulated for operations in the "gray zone" when managing criticality. The conclusion is made about the threats of "gray zones" as territories of controlled criticality.
It is shown that in order to monitor the situation and organize counteraction to subversive operations, it is necessary to create a single interdepartmental center in Russia that can combine measures to counter hybrid threats and assess the level of criticality in various spheres.
For the first time, models of interaction in hybrid warfare have been developed: a hybrid warfare model that includes a matrix of system components, and a hybrid threat synchronization model, a criticality management algorithm. The integrative and conceptual models of ensuring the national and international security of the Russian Federation are proposed.
The last two models reflect the possibility of a flexible combination of Russia's national interests and the interests of a wide range of other participants: states, coalitions, international organizations.
A number of other important theoretical issues have been investigated:
– organization of intelligence in a hybrid war, including the interaction of diplomacy and intelligence, a "hybrid" component in the activities of the intelligence services of modern states;
– transformation of the military technosphere, including forecasting issues, development of concepts of the combat use of forces and means of modern states, actions in cyberspace;
– cognitive warfare as the third combat dimension of hybrid warfare;
– doctrines of deterrence in hybrid warfare, including coercion and denial.
Alexander Bartosh's new work is a fundamental military-theoretical work on the issues of ensuring the country's defense and state security.
This work, as well as other scientific works of the author on the theory of hybrid warfare, which formed the basis of the study, correspond to the advanced world level.
Alexander Alexandrovich dedicated this book to the memory of his life partner for 55 years – Inna Sergeevna, whom I remember as a cheerful and friendly woman. May the earth be down to her.
Leonty Shevtsov
Leonty Pavlovich Shevtsov – Advisor to the Director of the Rosgvardiya, Honored Military specialist, Colonel-General.
