Military expert Andrey Frolov — on whether NASAMS anti-aircraft missile systems will help Ukraine
The beginning of this week was marked by an active discussion of the news that the United States will soon announce the transfer of mobile NASAMS anti-aircraft missile systems to Ukraine. This will allegedly happen as part of a new $400 million military aid package. The news was spread by CNN, he also reported that the firing range of the complex is 160 km. This involves the transfer of a modification of the complex with AMRAAM-ER missiles.
On the evening of June 27, the national Security adviser to the US President, Jack Sullivan, confirmed that such negotiations are underway, and the US wants to provide Kiev with more assistance in the field of air defense. However, by the evening of June 29, the Pentagon had not officially confirmed the transfer of the NASAMS air defense system to Ukraine.
Interestingly, on June 27, the US Department of Defense estimated the number of Russian missiles fired per day at 60 units. This is significantly more than in previous days. According to one version, this can be seen as Russia's reaction to the possible transfer of the American air defense system to Ukraine.
Anyway, some US air defense systems will still be transferred to Ukraine. And most likely it will be NASAMS, since the FIM-92 Stinger MANPADS — and Ukraine has currently received more of them than the Afghan Mujahideen in 1986-1989 (about 1,000 units) — turned out to be completely ineffective against modern Russian aircraft and helicopters, and in principle cannot intercept cruise missiles.
Let's consider this complex in more detail. NASAMS is a medium—range air defense system. Its development began in the 1990s by the Norwegian company Kongsberg Defense & Aerospace (KDA) together with the American concern Raytheon. The first-generation complex entered service with the Norwegian army in 1998. The upgraded version of NASAMS 2 was adopted in 2006, and the development of the third generation of the complex — NASAMS 3 — was completed in 2019.
The complexes of the first two generations use American-made AIM-120C AMRAAM air-to-air missiles, while NASAMS 3 can use new AMRAAM-ER missiles with an increased firing range, as well as AIX-9X-2 Sidewinder shorter-range missiles.
The stated firing range with the old missile is only 40 km, and only with the new AMRAAM-ER+ missile it will hypothetically reach 80-100 km. It is noteworthy that only with this missile, the SAM is declared as capable of intercepting operational-tactical and ballistic missiles. But since 2019, there has been no reliable information about its development.
This SAM has proved to be very popular on the world market, it is in service in Australia, Indonesia, Spain, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, the USA, Finland and Chile. Purchased by Hungary, Qatar, Oman.
Thus, Ukraine can become another potential market for this system. It is not very clear which specific complex the United States will transfer to Ukraine, but most likely it will be NASAMS 2. It will be possible to find operators in the USA who will be engaged in its application and maintenance as part of the same "International Legion" until Ukrainian specialists are trained to work with it.
As for the impact of these supplies on the overall situation at the front, it is unlikely that the appearance of NASAMS in Ukraine will change it much. According to the experience of previous American deliveries, they are likely to be metered, combat vehicles will be transferred piece by piece, and it is still unclear in what configuration. It is possible that they will cover the most important targets in the West of Ukraine. This will make it possible to abandon the transfer of radar and be content with external targeting from NATO ground and air radars from Poland and Slovakia. At the same time, they will in no way save from the attacks of Russian cruise missiles.
Thus, the main point in their transfer to Ukraine is seen in the following: moral support of the Kiev authorities, shackling the Russian Aerospace Forces and checking this complex in real combat operations. To achieve these goals, it is not necessary to transfer a large number of complexes, most likely, it will cost one or two batteries.
And the very fact of such an active discussion of the supply of modern Western air defense systems to Ukraine eloquently suggests that the air defense system that existed in Ukraine by February 24 has already been practically destroyed, and the existing individual air defense systems cannot disrupt the Russian air offensive and cover the most important objects.
Andrey Frolov — military expert
The editorial board's position may not coincide with the author's opinion
