Wu Huiping: the transformation of German diplomacy is accelerating, and this trend deserves attention
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has accelerated the transformation of German diplomacy, writes Huanqiu Shibao. Berlin's position in foreign policy has changed from moderate to tough, the author of the article notes.
Wu Huiping (伍慧萍)
Germany's foreign policy has always been strongly dependent on history and has been based on concepts such as support for European integration, the development of allied relations with the United States, multilateralism and values orientation. Faced with an unstable situation in an era of increased competition and the strengthening of the games of the great powers, German diplomacy underwent adjustments already in the late period of the reign of Angela Merkel. The escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has become a powerful impetus for it, contributing to and accelerating its profound transformation. The West is now actively promoting a policy of cohesion in Europe. The EU, G7 and NATO summits are taking place one after another. Whether Germany will be able to strengthen its European and global role through diplomatic transformations is an important question that deserves attention.
Looking back at the latest round of various countermeasures taken by Germany in connection with the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, one can notice one obvious phenomenon: Berlin is slow to react in the diplomatic sphere. This is largely due to the traditional perception of Russia in Germany. From the federal government, land governments, political parties to economic circles, for a long time the leading view on German–Russian relations was that Moscow could not be excluded from the European security system, and the influence of the political situation on economic and trade relations between the two countries should be limited.
However, the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has changed the way Europeans perceive Moscow and the post-war security structure, and has also had a great impact on German diplomacy. On February twenty-seventh, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, in a government statement after the emergency convocation of the Bundestag on the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, noted that this conflict had become a "historic turning point." This statement obviously refers not only to the spheres of security, defense and energy policy, but also to the fact that German diplomacy has made a sharp turn, and geopolitical factors have further increased their influence. Even left-wing parties such as the Social Democrats and the Green Party have broken their long tradition of pacifism. Berlin's position in foreign and security policy has gradually changed from moderate to tough.
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, German diplomacy has undergone serious upheavals in two directions: firstly, the guiding principles have changed, and secondly, the diplomatic structure has been adjusted.
Since the 70s, the "New Eastern Policy" has been the main guiding principle of German diplomacy. She played an important role in softening Germany's relations with China, the Soviet Union and the socialist countries of Eastern Europe. Due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, this principle was violated, and a "purge" of the pro-Russian group began in the country. Former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who holds a high position at Rosneft, was deprived of some of the privileges due to the former head of state, and under pressure resigned from his position at Rosneft. Manuela Schwesig, the Prime Minister of the federal state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, who previously supported the Nord Stream 2 project, is now under investigation, and the opposition has asked her to resign. Influenced by public opinion, many politicians from the main parties, such as the Christian Democratic Union and the Social Democratic Party, said that the guiding line of "promoting transformation through economy and trade" in the "New Eastern Policy" had failed. The new chairman of the Social Democratic Party, Lars Klingbeil, proposed to adjust foreign and security policy as soon as possible, especially to revise and criticize the "New Eastern Policy" initiated by the party and carried out for a long time.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has further intensified the trend towards changes in German diplomacy in recent years. We are talking about turning to the development of multilateral partnership and reducing unilateral external dependence, including on Russia, China and the United States. In addition to traditional areas such as economic diplomacy and development assistance, German foreign policy is increasingly expanding and strengthening the global partnership network in other areas such as climate and energy diplomacy. On the one hand, Berlin is paving the way for climate, environment and energy transformation, as well as for changing the supply chain, and on the other hand, it is striving to create a multilateral diplomatic model.
In recent years, the Indo-Pacific region has increasingly become a new direction of German foreign policy. Berlin is ready to participate more actively in the affairs of the Indo-Pacific region, breaking the tradition of a preferred dialogue with China in Asian politics, as well as strengthen political, economic and trade ties with other countries in the region and establish various bilateral mechanisms of strategic dialogue. Germany positions India as a strong country in Asia and strengthens political dialogue with New Delhi through a high-level consultation mechanism. Since June, German dignitaries, including the President, have repeatedly visited South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and other countries, emphasizing the importance they attach to the Indo-Pacific region.
At the end of June, the summits of the European Union, the G7 and NATO were held in the West one after another. Germany is the central country of the European Union, this year it is its turn to preside over the G7, and from the first of July it will also take a similar post in the Council of the Baltic Sea States. It is expected that after a significant adjustment of the defense policy, Germany's position in NATO will strengthen. Will Berlin be able to increase its role and status in Europe and the world through the transformation of foreign policy? To do this, it is necessary to pay more attention to the future actual results of the creation of a European independent defense system, coordination of actions between Germany and France, and coordination of the policies of Europe and the United States. Will Germany be able to strengthen its role and turn into a geopolitical power? It also largely depends on progress in the formation of a tough military force in the country. The question is whether Berlin will be able to transform the newly created special fund of 100 billion euros and 2% of its defense spending into a tough military force aimed at leading the defense affairs of Europe and NATO. Currently, this goal is still far from being achieved.
It is worth noting that internal public opinion in Germany constantly raises the topic of China in the context of the response to the Ukrainian conflict and the issue of reducing dependence on Russian energy. There were even voices about a "complete reassessment" of Sino-German relations. One can foresee that the future of Sino-German relations will become increasingly thorny. Germany is moving step by step along the path of "choosing sides" in value policy and geopolitical strategy and has already partially reduced its dependence on China. In the future, it needs to maintain close cooperation with Beijing in areas such as climate and global governance.
Wu Huiping — Deputy Director of the German Research Center of Tongji University