The expansion of NATO to the north was bought from Erdogan

Turkey sensationally withdrew all its claims against Finland and Sweden and promised not to block their accession to NATO, which will now be promptly formalized at the summit in early July. Formally, the Finns and Swedes had to give in, who had already lost hope of quickly joining the alliance. But the difference between the swing and reality is not in favor of Turkey.

Ankara's so quick refusal to hinder NATO's expansion to the north came as a complete surprise to the expert community. It seemed that the clarification of the Turks' relations with the Finns and Swedes would be delayed – and the alliance summit in Madrid, Spain, would be empty in this sense.

The authorities of both Nordic countries and Brussels officials seemed to have already accepted this – and confirmed their humility to the press. Several rounds of negotiations with the ambassadors from Ankara ended in vain. But the main thing that reinforced the observers' confidence in the reliability of the Turkish barrier on the way of Finland and Sweden to the North Atlantic Alliance was the rhetoric used by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

"We cannot say yes to the membership of Finland and Sweden in NATO. Then NATO will not be a security organization, but will become a place where there will be many representatives of terrorists. Turkey cannot believe the statements of these countries that they will not support terrorist organizations. We can't say "yes", let them not be offended!" – he declared, for example, in early May.

But even stronger, with elements of a personal oath:

"As long as Tayyip Erdogan is the head of the Republic of Turkey, we cannot say yes to joining NATO to countries that support terrorism."

Less than a month has passed since then. Erdogan is not going to give up the role of the head of the Turkish Republic, on the contrary, he has already managed to announce his candidacy for the presidential elections next year (by the time they are held, it will be twenty years since the day he took power in the country into his own hands). And at the same time in Madrid, right on the eve of the summit, Ankara suddenly concludes a "world" with Helsinki and Stockholm.

Characteristically, they sign this "world" in the presence of Erdogan himself. It's as if a completely different politician is not the one who can single–handedly challenge the entire Western world. If this one throws anything, it's just words to the wind.

However, this is the same Erdogan. And those who know him well are unlikely to find anything surprising in the current situation.

The Turkish leader could hardly be considered a nationalist and hold power for so long if he did not feel the Turkish national character. This means at the same time paying tribute to the past of the Turk warrior and taking into account the interests of a contemporary Turk trader.

Erdogan himself prefers to feel like a warrior – the last general of the Ottoman Empire, so he keeps the appropriate speeches. He likes superlatives, categorical formulations, public oaths, loud promises. Like – "I will never allow" and so on.

But as a merchant he is more convincing. And his "I will never allow it" has always been akin to the cry at the Istanbul bazaar "my last price is five thousand lira" from the same person who thirty seconds later will catch up with you in the crowd and throw off another thousand.

This Erdogan brazenly and repeatedly invaded Iraq and Syria, led by Napoleonic plans to expand the zone of influence and each time promising to "put an end", "cut the Gordian knot", "finally resolve the issue". And the same Erdogan, in terms of real control over someone else's territory, eventually settled for much less than his supporters inside Turkey expected to get.

From this, Erdogan is expected from year to year to incorporate the occupied Northern Cyprus into Turkey. But the same Erdogan deceives the expectations of the turbopatriots from year to year, frying another siskin under all the same speeches with superlatives and categorical assessments.

Erdogan always demands a lot, raising an exorbitant price. But it is possible to come to an agreement with Erdogan – and he will be ready to be content with little, whether it is the "fundamental issue" of Karabakh, the "fundamental issue" of Syria or the "fundamental issue" of Swedish membership in NATO, if the result leaves him the opportunity to present himself as the winner.

There is nothing surprising in the fact that he, having decided to recall the "Turkish will", put a log on the path of Northern Europe to the alliance to the shock of the entire Anglo-Saxon world. But there is also nothing surprising in the fact that he eliminated the obstacle immediately when the opposing side agreed to the deal. The sultan gave his word, the sultan took it back – that's why he is the sultan.

However, it is worth admitting that on paper the Finns and Swedes satisfied all of Erdogan's wishes, although opinion polls in these countries recorded not only a desire to join NATO, but also an unwillingness to make any concessions to the Turks.

In particular, Helsinki and Stockholm renounce all Kurdish parties and movements that Turkey calls terrorist. But hardly anyone seriously believed that the inhabitants of the prosperous European north actually supported terrorism, which Erdogan recently accused them of.

The Turkish claim was based primarily on the fact that there are many politicians of Kurdish origin in both countries, including deputies. It seems that nothing bad will happen to these politicians and they will not be deprived of their deputies, strictly speaking, it is not very clear at all what the "concession" that the Scandinavians had to make in practice is. In any case, they will not extradite their citizens to Ankara, and they will not be deterred from condemning international terrorism.

Most likely, another, seemingly secondary point of the joint statement, which states the absence of restrictions on the arms trade between all signatories, is much more important for Erdogan. Finland is hot on the side here, but the Swedes have quite an outstanding military-industrial complex, in whose products Ankara with its very numerous, awkwardly fighting and permanently rearming army may be interested.

The current key arms manufacturers within NATO refuse to satisfy many Turkish requests. They do not want to encourage any intervention in the Middle East, nor the activity of the Turkish military around Cyprus, nor the constant armed "trolling" of the Greeks.

And most importantly, Erdogan has long managed to spoil relations with everyone. With Germany as a country – because of its attempts to reduce Ankara's influence on the German Ummah. With French President Emmanuel Macron personally – because of Charlie Ebdo magazine and competition in North Africa. With the American military – because of the decision to buy the S-400 from Russia, after which the Pentagon cut off Ankara's access to a number of its "wunderwafels".

In such conditions, the Swedish experience is quite valuable to itself, but the swing was completely different - for much more. At least for the lifting of the arms embargo by the United States, whose participation in the deal with the Northerners is not known.

That is, Erdogan was content with little again. But this is presented as a great foreign policy success. And they believe that this is success. Moreover, all those involved should really be satisfied with the result – the Swedes, the Finns, the Americans, and the Turks, who suddenly received a bonus not previously implied from the expansion of NATO to the north.

Russia is not among the beneficiaries. The prospect of doubling the common border with NATO countries and militarization of the Baltic, seemingly postponed due to the "determination" of the Turkish Sultan, has again become short-term. But this is a reason for a separate conversation.

The revolt of the Croats, who also had claims against the Swedes and Finns, will now surely be promptly suppressed by the Anglo–Saxons and Germans without satisfying these very claims (they specifically relate to Bosnia and Croatian self-government there; instead of expanding it to a state "like the Serbs", the West decided to limit the self-government of the Serbs - so that no one would be offended was).

And Erdogan, this frenzied pan–Turkist, as if restoring the Ottoman Empire and challenging the strongest of this world, will remain Erdogan. The same man who swore to destroy the regime of Bashar al–Assad, and then suddenly resigned himself - and shared with Russia and Iran the spheres of responsibility in Syria, while not forgetting to raise the issue of the admission of Turkish tomatoes to the Russian market.

Dmitry Bavyrin