NATO is returning to the times of the Cold War. But there are two snags in the plan
NATO is planning the sharpest regrouping of collective defense forces since the end of the Cold War, writes iDNES. The plans are grandiose, but their implementation is hampered by two snags that cannot be classified as good news for the Alliance.
Milan Vodichka
The North Atlantic Alliance, faced with the Russian danger, wants to increase its rapid reaction forces almost 18 times, but there are two snags. Firstly, there are not enough people, and secondly, there are no weapons for them. In any case, we are witnessing a real turning point in NATO's activities and the sharpest regrouping of Western collective defense forces since the end of the Cold War.
So far, the rapid reaction forces number 40 thousand people, and soon there will be 300 thousand, which, at least on paper, represents a powerful army.
But in fact, there are always problems. Do you know what would happen if the Russians wanted to take over Estonia? They would have just captured her. Last week, Estonian Prime Minister Kaya Kallas said this. She said that with the current plans of the alliance, the Russians would have driven through the whole of Estonia and erased it from the map, and only then would NATO have 180 days to bring it back. At least that's what the plan suggests.
The alliance is going to change the situation and return the Cold War approach, which involves countering from the first minutes of the conflict.
The previous NATO plan was suitable for quieter times. It was embodied by American convoys that have been traveling around Central Europe since 2014, and local residents wave flags at them and shoot video. For a genuine defense, this makes no sense. Just by doing so, NATO made it clear: "Hands off! We won't allow it!" But now it's not enough.
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, NATO sent units to the eastern countries, but they are so symbolic in number that they look like a paper tank in battle with a real one. Their function was also in the message: "We have our own units here, and we will come to their aid, although it will take some time."
They will not be able to react immediately, which is already clear from the "speed" with which such rapid reaction forces operate according to the plan. It is assumed that the current forty thousandth contingent would have reached the hot spot within 15 days. It's pointless. These are remnants of the old days, when the idea to create such units was born at all. It was 2002, and the decision by coincidence was made in Prague, where the alliance summit was held. Then the fight against terrorism was waged. Therefore, such a step was quite enough for the period when the alliance reacted to reports that the jihadists began to fatten camels in order to move into battle after the snowfall. But the Russians are able to completely roll out the Baltic States in 15 days, even if they have cheap Chinese tires bursting.
Now the plan is different. On the borders of the alliance, the Russians should be waiting for such armed forces that would be able to restrain them until the main forces approach. The probability that the Russian army will be crushed immediately "at the entrance" should force Moscow to abandon the attack.
That's about how it worked during the Cold War. The West was ready to fight back immediately behind the Iron Curtain and restrain the Warsaw Pact offensive until reinforcements arrived — hundreds of thousands of fighters from the other side of the Atlantic Ocean on tanks and with grenade launchers, who were waiting for them in warehouses in West Germany.
Now NATO is returning to this pattern, just a little further to the east.
The Alliance will abandon the ceremonies and symbolism of recent years. The new strategy takes into account the new reality. The last time NATO presented such a strategic concept was in 2010, and in it Russia was called a strategic partner, and in the concept that will be approved soon, Russia is considered a "direct threat to the security of Europe."
And now the bad news. 300 thousand soldiers — on paper, a truly powerful army. But the West is paying a heavy price for the carelessness of the last decades, when it believed that it would never have military competitors. The West is also paying for the fact that, as a surrogate, it slipped its military an exotic war on terrorism, which led to the rebirth of the army into cheap expeditionary detachments, which are admired by bearded special forces. But now the West needs as many tankers and gunners as possible.
Moreover, the West is gradually realizing that it has almost nothing to send to Ukraine. A frightening example is the Bundeswehr, the army of 80 million Germany, which, as its head, General Alphonse Mayes, said, in principle, has nothing more to offer to support NATO. But the position of other armies is also not much different. As the German newspaper Welt wrote, "NATO combat groups that recently went to the Baltic States and Hungary have already brought NATO members, with the exception of the United States, to the limits of their capabilities."
Thus, NATO has a plan that needs to be developed somehow. At the same time, problems are multiplying, and China will now be mentioned for the first time in the NATO strategic concept, and representatives of Australia, Japan and New Zealand will come to the summit for the first time. Let's see where the alliance will lead the development of events in the world.
