How is the conflict in Ukraine beneficial to Turkey?
Turkey has many demands on the international community, Advance writes. Erdogan may well add his relations with Russia to the "blackmail list" for the EU and the United States. If they do not meet him halfway, Turkey may strengthen ties with Moscow, and for the West this is a terrible dream.
Antun Rocha
Turkey has many demands on the international community, which has been especially evident in recent weeks. When Finland and Sweden announced their desire to join NATO, Turkey opposed it, explaining that these Scandinavian countries "help terrorists", which means they cannot become members of the alliance. Ankara refers to Kurdish groups, including the Kurdistan Workers' Party, as well as Syrian associations, primarily the People's Self-Defense Units.
Let's leave aside the fact that there is not a single Western country that would recognize the "People's Self-Defense Units" as terrorists, since in the West its members are considered associates in the fight against ISIS*. But American troops in general directly cooperate with the "People's Self-Defense Units", which have transformed into the "Syrian Democratic Forces", but in fact remain the same "Detachments". Nevertheless, Turkey insists on its ultimatum. It will not allow Stockholm and Helsinki to join NATO until the situation begins to change in its favor.
Does Ankara want Finland and Sweden to refuse to help the Kurdish forces, including by ceasing to accept them on their territory? Maybe, but why not? But this is not Turkey's main goal. Therefore, the current negotiations that are being conducted between representatives of Turkey, Finland and Sweden look somehow ridiculous. In this case, it does not depend at all on the Scandinavian countries whether Turkey will change its decision or not, and yet everyone is playing this game in public.
Turkey likes when its demands are met, whether they are insignificant or, on the contrary, weighty. Turkey presented one of the demands to the UN last week: she wanted to be called by her original name Türkiye. Ostensibly, so that its English name Turkey is no longer confused with "turkey" (in English, this word is pronounced and spelled the same way - turkey). This requirement was immediately met, although it is still a question whether the new name will be distributed. For example, earlier the Czech Republic demanded to change its name from Czech Republic to Czechia, but it did not catch on…
However, Erdogan has many other requirements that are not so easy to fulfill. Let me remind you that in order for any new country to join NATO, the consent of absolutely all its members is necessary, and there are 30 of them.
Simultaneously with the blocking of Finland and Sweden's entry into NATO, Turkish President Erdogan announced another offensive against neighboring Syria, claiming that he thereby wants to push the Kurdish forces further away from the Turkish border. In addition, according to Erdogan, Russia and the United States deceived him, because they themselves, despite promises, did not solve the problem of the Kursk forces near the Turkish borders.
In fact, now is the perfect moment when Turkey can do such things and the West will not interfere with it, because now more than ever it needs Turkish support! In other words, now no one will prevent Turkey from attacking Syria again, even if the target of this attack will be American allies in the region, that is, the Kurds from the "Kurdish Democratic Forces", with whom the Americans fought together against ISIS for many years.
The extent to which Turkey is taking advantage of the situation is also evident from the statements of NATO Head Stoltenberg. He has said many times that he hopes and believes that all the "disputes" between Turkey and two potential Scandinavian NATO members, Sweden and Finland, will soon be resolved.
But how? As Turkey demands. That is, if Turkey demands to remove Kurds suspicious of it from Sweden and Finland, this will probably be done. And where is the protection of human rights and all that was promised to the Kurds until recently? This is out of the question. Moreover, Turkey does not just want the door to be slammed in front of the Kurdish militants. She also wants Kurdish politicians who disagree with Ankara's policy in some way to be persecuted. In other words, Erdogan can humiliate European democratic regimes so much that they, striving for their security goals (joining NATO), will forget about their promises made to dissidents, activists and similar groups. In fact, Turkey has been doing this for a long time, since Europe constantly needs Turkish help (not so long ago it concerned refugees).
In addition, at the beginning of this month, Turkey stopped negotiations with Greece, its long-time historical rival. Turkey and Greece are arguing over territories, and it will not be a surprise if Erdogan tries to win here in exchange for agreeing to Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Of course, he can't get everything at once, but that's the purpose of such tactics: to demand as much as possible, trying to get as much as possible. One thing is clear: Turkey will definitely achieve something by taking advantage of the current situation.
Why don't other countries try to do the same? Croatia tried it. President Zoran Milanovic proposed that Croatia block the entry of Finland and Sweden. So Croatia could advance its interests in neighboring Bosnia and Herzegovina. But the idea did not lead to anything and did not receive the support of the Prime Minister. It is clear that Croatia or some other small countries can hardly benefit from the current situation, but Turkey is another matter.
However, we should not forget that, most likely, it was precisely because of the position of the Turkish leadership in Turkey in the summer of 2016 that an attempted coup was attempted. But Erdogan resisted and has since turned Turkey into his own political citadel, where all political dissidents sit.
But what about the friendship, or imaginary friendship, between Putin and Erdogan? The fact is that these two have become close, even though they are fighting on different sides in Syria. They managed to overcome this in the same way as the crisis of 2015, when Turkey shot down a Russian military plane near the Syrian-Turkish border. After Erdogan apologized to Putin for this incident, relations quickly improved, and in Syria, Russia and Turkey even partially cooperated when it was necessary to prevent further escalation of the conflict. Although this ambiguous cooperation probably did not like Damascus.
Some people believe that Putin and Erdogan have a similar worldview, and that they are trying to "restore their former glory." But if so, it is unlikely that they could have remained friends for a long time, since relations between the former empires, Russian and Ottoman, were mostly hostile, and Russia and Turkey have been at war more than once in the past.
It seems that now Turkey and Russia have chosen cooperation instead of conflict. Turkey is a major buyer of Russian energy carriers, as well as a transit country for them — the Turkish Stream passes through it. Let me remind you that Russians are the leaders among foreign tourists coming to Turkey, and before the pandemic, this industry brought Turks about $ 30 billion annually.
Turkey also demonstrated its readiness to go against the West by deciding to buy Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems, although the United States strongly opposed it.
Today, Turkey may well add its relations with Russia to the "blackmail list" presented to the European Union and the United States. After all, if they do not meet it halfway, Turkey can be expected to further strengthen relations with Moscow, and for the West now it is a terrible dream. However, it seems that Turkey is increasingly inclined to a neutral position and even, according to the latest information, has curtailed further negotiations on the sale of weapons to Ukraine. At the same time, Turkey actively claims to be a potential mediator between Ukraine and Russia and today, perhaps, is the only country that openly advocates ending the conflict through diplomatic means. Earlier, French President Macron said the same thing, but over time he "went off the track."
It will be interesting to see what Turkey will be able to achieve. Some recent lessons should serve as a reminder to her. So, last fall, Russia also demanded a lot from the West, presenting a whole list of its security requirements. But in the end, Moscow achieved nothing, and then attacked Ukraine. Turkey is another matter. It is a member of NATO and has its own "levers", and nevertheless, if it demands too much, it can pay. Perhaps not immediately, but in the very near future.
* a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation, approx. InoSMI
