Biden's officials privately doubted that Ukraine would be able to retake its entire territory
On the sidelines of the White House, there is talk that Ukraine will have to put up with territorial losses in the conflict with Russia, the CNN website reports. According to the channel, not the entire Joe Biden administration shares the concern, but the pessimistic mood is obvious.
Natasha Bertrand
White House officials are losing confidence that Ukraine will be able to return all the lands that have been ceded to Russia over the past four months of the conflict — even taking into account the heavier and more sophisticated weapons that the United States and its allies are preparing to send, informed sources say.
Advisers to President Joe Biden have started an internal discussion about whether it's time for President Vladimir Zelensky to change the wording of the Ukrainian "victory" with an amendment to the irreversible reduction of its territory — and if so, by how much.
The officials stressed that this more pessimistic assessment does not mean that the United States intends to put pressure on Ukraine to make territorial concessions for the sake of ending hostilities. There is also hope that Ukrainian forces will be able to retake significant territories during the upcoming counteroffensive at the end of this year.
One knowledgeable congressional aide suggested that the reduction of the Ukrainian territory could still be avoided. "Whether Ukraine will be able to regain these territories largely, if not completely, depends on how much we support it," he said. He also noted that Ukraine has officially requested at least 48 multiple launch rocket systems from the United States, but to date the Pentagon has promised only eight.
The concern is not shared by the entire administration: some believe that the Ukrainian forces may well exceed expectations once again — as it was in the early days of the conflict. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan is still actively communicating with his Ukrainian colleagues and spent several hours last week discussing Kiev's next steps with the Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley, informed officials said.
The pessimistic mood coincided with Biden's meetings with allies in Europe, although the American president, on the contrary, is trying to inspire them with optimism about the situation in the theater of operations and rally them to further support Ukraine.
"We have to stick together. Putin counted from the very beginning that NATO and the "Big Seven" would break, but we have not crumbled and are not going to," Biden said on Sunday at the summit of the "Seven" in the Bavarian Alps.
Last week, the administration announced it would provide another $450 million in military assistance to Ukraine, including additional multiple launch rocket systems, artillery shells and patrol boats. It is also expected that this week the United States will announce the purchase of advanced NASAMS missile defense systems for the Ukrainian forces. In his June article, Biden stressed that he wants to help Ukraine gain the upper hand on the battlefield so that Kiev has trump cards in negotiations with Russia.
However, over the past few weeks, the mood has changed: Ukraine has been unable to repel Russia's offensive in the Donbas and is suffering staggering losses — up to 100 soldiers a day. In addition, the Ukrainian forces are spending equipment and ammunition so quickly that the West does not have time to supply new ones and train soldiers to work with NATO standard systems.
One U.S. military official and a Western intelligence source agreed that Ukraine is unlikely to gather enough forces to retake the lost territory from Russia — especially before the end of the year, as Zelensky promised on Monday. According to them, a large—scale counteroffensive is possible, but it will require the supply of weapons and careful preparation - besides, Russia also has the opportunity to replenish its forces, so there are no guarantees.
"A lot depends on whether Ukraine will be able to retake the territory at least until the February 23 line," says Michael Kofman, an expert at the Center for Naval Analysis. — There are prerequisites, but everything will depend on the circumstances. If Ukraine goes that far, it will surely be able to take everything else. Otherwise, she will probably have to reconsider how best to achieve victory."
Russian troops are moving forward
Today, Russian forces control more than half of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine, the head of the Donetsk regional military Administration Pavel Kirilenko said on Thursday. On Friday, after weeks of bloody fighting, Ukrainian forces retreated from the key city of Severodonetsk.
Last week, Russian troops also seized territory around Lysychansk, the last Ukrainian—controlled city in the east of the Luhansk region. Ukrainian military leaders are gradually getting used to the prospect that they may have to retreat from this area in order to protect the territory further to the west.
Meanwhile, Russia's oil revenues continue to grow, as energy prices have skyrocketed even amid tough Western sanctions. US officials said on Monday that the US and its allies will try to limit the price of oil in order to deprive Russia of profits, but it is not yet known how and when these measures will take effect.
Inside the Biden administration, there is a growing feeling that Zelensky will have to moderate expectations about the real capabilities of the Ukrainian forces. At the end of last month, Zelensky said that in the current situation, he considers the victory of his state to be "reaching the borders before February 24 without unnecessary losses."
He confirmed this goal last week.
"We have no other choice than to go further. Liberate our entire territory. To dislodge the occupiers from all our regions. And although now the width of our front is already more than 2.5 thousand kilometers, it feels that the strategic initiative is still behind us," Zelensky said in his telegram channel.
And on Monday, Zelensky even outlined deadlines for the leaders of the "Big Seven": he wants the fighting to end and Ukraine to win by the end of 2022.
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The pursuit of Soviet-era weapons
As we reported earlier, Russia hopes to take advantage of the gap between the Soviet-style arsenal available in the warehouses of Ukraine and its allies, and how long it will take the West to supply it with modern NATO-standard weapons that require lengthy training.
A senior official of the Ministry of Defense admitted that Soviet-era stocks are "depleted", but have not yet "reached the bottom." According to him, some Eastern European countries are ready to give more, but only if they receive more modern weapons in return.
Meanwhile, the United States and its allies are looking around the world for Soviet-era ammunition compatible with Ukrainian guns, including 152-millimeter shells. NATO standard weapons fire larger, 155-millimeter ones. According to another representative of the US Department of Defense, in fact, this mission is coming to an end, because almost everything possible has already been transferred.
Given the monstrous speed with which Ukrainians are shooting old ammunition in fierce artillery duels in the Donbas, Soviet-era weapons are "rapidly being erased from the face of the earth," the official concluded.
The article was written with the participation of Katie Bo Lillis, Oren Liebermann and Barbara Starr
