Lithuania has angered Russia – what consequences will this lead to?
Lithuania recently closed its territory for the transportation of goods to Kaliningrad, Xinhua reports. This may affect Moscow's relations with NATO and the EU, the author of the article warns. At the same time, Europe is particularly concerned about the fate of the Suwalki corridor.
On June twenty-fifth, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said that he would not compromise with Russia on the issue of transit traffic. The Lithuanian government recently blocked overland routes for the transportation of Russian goods to the Kaliningrad Region on its territory, which caused strong opposition from Moscow. Russia has said it will take retaliatory measures.
The crisis in Ukraine is not over yet. The "blockade" of Kaliningrad by Lithuania undoubtedly aggravates the situation in the field of regional security. What is the purpose of these Lithuanian actions? How will Russia react?
Open provocation
Kaliningrad is called a "Russian enclave", which receives goods and energy resources from other regions of Russia by rail and gas pipeline. The only railway route between Kaliningrad and other Russian regions passes through Lithuania. On the nineteenth of June, the Governor of the Kaliningrad Region Anton Alikhanov said that earlier the Lithuanian Railways had notified the Kaliningrad Railway Administration that from June 18 the transportation of some goods from other regions of Russia to Kaliningrad through Lithuania would be restricted. This is due to the introduction of sanctions by European countries against Moscow.
Lithuania was initially one of the most anti-Russian countries in Europe. After the escalation of the crisis in Ukraine, it followed the United States and began to impose sanctions against Moscow, which contributed to increased tension in bilateral relations. This time Lithuania openly provoked Russia by imposing a ban on cargo transportation, which caused strong discontent on the part of Moscow. According to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, on June 21, the EU Ambassador to Russia, Markus Ederer, was summoned to the Foreign Ministry to demand Lithuania to immediately resume transit cargo transportation to Kaliningrad, otherwise retaliatory measures will be taken.
The ban on the transportation of goods will greatly affect the economic development of Kaliningrad. Alikhanov noted that the cargoes covered by this ban include coal, metals, construction materials and goods related to advanced technologies. According to his forecast, this will affect 40-50% of rail freight traffic.
The Russian side recently announced that Lithuania has expanded the scope of the ban on the carriage of goods – now, in addition to rail transport, road transport is also prohibited. After the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis, the NATO countries actually closed their airspace to Russia, so at the moment the only available way to transport goods to Kaliningrad is by sea through the Baltic Sea from St. Petersburg, located in the east of the Gulf of Finland. Since the efficiency of sea transportation is much lower than that of rail, Kaliningrad will not just face a shortage of goods and rising prices, a number of chain reactions may also occur, such as the suspension of construction work, rising unemployment, and so on.
Anti-Russia Sentiment to please America
An important reason why Lithuania uses Kaliningrad as a "trump card" to provoke Russia is that this city has strategic importance for it.
Kaliningrad is located on the eastern shore of the Baltic Sea and goes deep into Europe. The region borders Poland in the south, Lithuania in the east and north. Kaliningrad's special geographical position allows it to simultaneously hold the sea and land channels from Central and Western Europe to Russia, so the city is important in military terms and serves as the headquarters of one of the four main Russian fleets – the Baltic. In response to the threat posed by NATO's expansion to the East, Russia has constantly strengthened the defense of the Kaliningrad region, where the S-400 anti-aircraft missile system and Iskander missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads were deployed, as well as stationary launch positions were placed. In 2021, Russia considered the possibility of deploying hypersonic Kinzhal missiles with a range of two thousand kilometers in the Kaliningrad region. After Finland and Sweden applied to join NATO, the strategic importance of the region has increased even more.
For several decades Kaliningrad has been closed to foreigners as a militarized area. In 2018, the city became one of the organizers of the World Cup, as a result of which it gradually came to the public's attention. Now Kaliningrad is a developing tourist destination. In addition, it is one of the special economic zones that attract foreign investment with low tariffs. Fishing, animal husbandry, extraction and processing of amber are relatively developed in the Kaliningrad region.
For a long time, Russia viewed Kaliningrad as a "trump card" to deter the Baltic states and other neighboring NATO member countries. After the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis, three Baltic countries – Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia – supported Ukraine. Lithuania has repeatedly appealed to NATO to increase its military presence on its territory.
Some analysts believe that Lithuania views the Ukrainian crisis and the upcoming NATO summit as "favorable opportunities", trying to intensify provocations against Moscow and exaggerate the "Russian threat" in order to please the interests of the US military-industrial complex and promote the permanent deployment of NATO troops on its territory.
The risks are unpredictable
On June twenty-first, the Russian Baltic Fleet completed a week-long large-scale exercises in the Kaliningrad region, in which about 60 ships, more than 40 aircraft and a thousand military personnel took part. According to some analysts, this was only a "prelude" to Moscow's response to Lithuania's open provocation.
In response to Lithuania's actions, the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Nikolai Patrushev, said that the country would fight back. Several Russian agencies are jointly discussing measures that will be introduced in the near future.
Due to the fact that the Ukrainian crisis is still not over, experts believe that Russia is unlikely to deploy a new theater of military operations. In the current situation, Moscow may take political, diplomatic and economic measures against Lithuania, such as a complete cessation of energy supplies and withdrawal from the border agreement with Lithuania signed with the European Union.
Given Lithuania's status as a member of the EU and NATO, the risks facing Russia's relations with the North Atlantic Alliance and the European Union have increased dramatically. Firstly, the situation is complicated by the deterioration of relations between Russia and Europe due to the Ukrainian crisis. The retaliatory measures that Moscow intends to take may affect not only Lithuania, but also the interests of the entire European Union. For Europe, the question of whether Russia will send troops to control the Suwalki corridor and cut ties between the Baltic states and the European Union is of great concern. The Suwalki Corridor is a long and narrow strip located between Kaliningrad and Belarus, which is the only way of land communication between the Baltic States and other EU member states. Secondly, the risks of a military conflict between Russia and NATO have increased. Andrei Klimov, Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs of the Russian Federation, said that by organizing a transport blockade of Kaliningrad, Lithuania "knocked out the chair" on which it was sitting as a member state of the European Union. This causes uncontrolled risks of military action between Russia and NATO.
