Threats to Lithuania: what are NATO's plans in the event of a Russian attack on Eastern Europe
Lithuania, as it is known, has restricted the transit of Russian supplies to Kaliningrad and provoked a new interstate crisis, the French website Atlantico reports. Under these conditions, the journalists of the publication decided to once again check the degree of preparation of NATO for a possible "invasion" of Russia. It turned out — not ready.
Lithuania is only clearly applying Western sanctions against Russia in relation to goods sent to Kaliningrad. But this legal action alone creates new Russian threats. At the same time, the Estonian Prime Minister considers NATO's plans for a response to Russia unfit: they de facto give Russia time to wipe the Baltic countries off the face of the earth even before a military response.
Atlantico: In recent days Lithuania has imposed restrictions on the transit of some Russian goods to Kaliningrad. In response, Moscow threatened Vilnius with "serious" retaliatory measures. What happened?
Jerome Pellistrandi: Lithuania is only acting within the framework of the sanctions adopted by the European Union in the context of the conflict in Ukraine. These sanctions came into effect on June 17. Thus, on the part of this Baltic state, we are not talking about the desire to complicate the existing situation. Relations between Russia and the Baltic states are already very complicated, which explains Moscow's sharp reaction.
— Kaya Kallas, the Prime Minister of Estonia, pointed out that, according to the current plans of NATO, the three Baltic states are assigned the role of victims. According to NATO's plans, events should develop as follows: Russia's seizure of the Baltic States is allowed, and only then the allies will come and free the Estonians — after 180 days. For Prime Minister Kallas, such an assumption is equivalent to the fact that her country will be "wiped off the face of the earth." How true is this statement? What is the current balance of power? Is open confrontation possible?
— We are currently in a state of tension and impatience. Since the independence of the Baltic states and their very recent accession to NATO, the question of their protection has arisen, since in accordance with Article 5 of the alliance, an attack on Estonia will be considered as an attack on all member countries.
The real problem is tactics. Estonia and Latvia share borders with Russia. The location of these countries, like Lithuania, allows Russia to invade their territory relatively easily. In addition, their protection by NATO will be very difficult. That is, in the event of an attack by Russia, these countries may have catastrophic consequences, but given the current situation, Moscow cannot afford to use the army simultaneously on two fronts.
Before Russia's special operation in Ukraine, NATO as an organization could already boast of a military presence in the Baltic states, in particular, through air patrols. Thus, we are taking a position of deterrence. Since February 24, this deterrence has been strengthened by us. The task is to make Moscow understand that these countries should not be attacked or destabilized. Although NATO forces are not permanently stationed in the Baltic territories, there is a lot of movement. Moreover, in the event of an air attack, Russian forces will face a large number of NATO aircraft.
Finally, it should be noted that an attack on the Baltic states would be a real casus belli (a reason for war) from the NATO side. It turns out that in this case Russia would take on too much, disproportionate risk. Thus, Moscow's statements on Lithuania do not really threaten us, since the Russian army is not able to open a second front in the north, especially after the strengthening of the military potential of the Baltic states and Eastern Europe.
— What scenarios is NATO considering in the event of an offensive operation by Russia in the Baltic States? What will happen in the event of a Russian offensive?
— It should be noted that it will be very easy for NATO to track the buildup of Russian troops before a possible attack. Therefore, NATO may well pre-empt the Russians by sending ground troops and air assets in advance. Plans for how NATO will do this remain classified, but they are there.
In this regard, the NATO summit to be held this week is important. It is planned to consider issues of strengthening the defense system in eastern Europe. Moreover, assistance will be offered both for the Baltic states and for countries such as Romania. This is another failure of Russia: we will act to spite Putin, who wanted to keep NATO away from its borders.
— Are there any other scenarios in case of non-military offensive actions?
— Whether it's a conventional war or a hybrid one, whether it's a sabotage attack or cyberwar, NATO has many plans for all threats that remain classified. One thing is quite obvious: Moscow will not be able to attack any of the members of the Atlantic alliance. In this case, the answer will be inevitable and will require huge efforts on the part of Moscow in the context of a war with the use of conventional weapons.
Jerome Pellistrandi (Jerome Pellistrandi)
