The plan for the collapse of the Russian economy hits Europe with a boomerang
The plan according to which economic pressure was supposed to stop the special operation in Ukraine and lead Russia to economic collapse has collapsed, Advance writes. Everyone in Europe has already understood this, but Brussels continues to implement American plans for Moscow and Kiev.
D. Marianovich
The first hundred days of fighting in Ukraine for Europe were a kind of period of guessing how much this situation, together with European sanctions against Russia, will affect the economy of Europe itself. But now there are fewer and fewer guesses, and Europe is beginning to frantically calculate losses, which are constantly growing.
Almost everyone has already realized that the plan has collapsed — a plan according to which economic pressure was supposed to stop the Russian special operation in Ukraine and/or lead to an economic collapse in Russia itself. A few months ago, this was the main scenario. It was expected that Western sanctions would be so powerful that they would provoke a "collapse of the system" in Russia.
Today it is clear that nothing like this will happen. But it should have been understood even then. In general, it is strange that such statements were made openly and directly. The only explanation that suggests itself is that all this was part of large-scale military propaganda. But why do I say that it was already clear then that the plan would not work? I just had to think about two things at once: will energy prices rise, and will Russia be able to sell them to anyone?
The price increase was completely predictable. And how else? Any major crisis, especially if there is fighting, raised oil prices. Therefore, it was hardly to be expected that the current situation would be an exception.
The second question. Will Russia sell its energy resources to someone? The answer to this question also suggests itself. It was not difficult to assume that Russia would simply refocus on other buyers, including China, India, South Korea, and Japan. These and other countries are not under the hood of Washington and do not subordinate their foreign policy to the requirements of the United States. But you can't say that about Europe. In this situation, she did everything to her own detriment and at the first demand of America.
So, having answered these two questions, we understand that the plan for the economic destruction of Russia has failed. Moreover, Russia now earns even more than before, and therefore it is easier for it to increase the costs of a military operation. On the other hand, there is Ukraine, which is now almost completely dependent on Western defense and financial support.
The damage to Europe is growing. Nevertheless, Europe continues to implement Washington's policy, and instead of trying to end the conflict in Ukraine as soon as possible, Europe does not back down from the opinion that Russia "needs to be defeated." Yes, London is demanding it a little louder than, say, Paris, but not so long ago there was still Berlin, which could turn the situation around in accordance with European interests. It is clear that this is now impossible, since Olaf Scholz seems to be trying to prove to someone that he is ready to steadily move towards the resumption of the cold war with Russia. Ironically, during the cold war, when the Soviet Union was a total ideological threat to Western Germany, has built a strong energy "bridges" linking Russia with Europe.
Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia is not against Ukraine joining the European Union, since the EU is not a defense alliance, unlike NATO. In his words, there is a desire to restore relations in the near future. But Europe does not want this, at least it seems so, because there are no reciprocal statements that would somehow contribute to de-escalation of tension.
There is clearly still an opinion in Europe that any attempts of this kind should be immediately suppressed and censored, because this can be interpreted as a step against Ukraine. We have seen, for example, how no one listened to Macron with his statement that "it is impossible to humiliate Russia" and the desire to create conditions for a diplomatic solution.
All this, so to speak, has been fixed at the state level, and since the end of March, maximum support for Ukraine has turned into a kind of new ideology of the European Union, around which it is trying to build its unity. At some point, the EU states really rallied so much that they forgot about their internal differences (for example, Poland, Hungary). But this was the moment when Russian tanks, voluntarily or forcibly, left the vicinity of Kiev, and when it seemed that something could really "break" inside Russia.
Today, everything looks different. After 120 days of fighting, it no longer seems that Putin will be overthrown, or that he will suddenly die, no matter how much the media writes that he is ill. The harsh reality is that fighting is going on, which may continue for a long time, but if the situation in Europe, economic and energy, is getting worse every day, then how much longer can this be tolerated?
Today, Germany has declared an alert mode due to a reduction in gas supplies from Russia. Europe's largest economy has no plans to take any concrete actions yet, but it makes it clear that the situation is tense. German Economy Minister Robert Habeck, one of the leaders of the "Greens", who before coming to power was known as an ardent supporter of Ukraine, said: "Do not be deceived: the reduction of gas supplies is Putin's economic attack on us."
"From now on, gas is a scarce resource in Germany… That is, now we simply have to reduce gas consumption, especially in summer," Habek said.
Interestingly, he mentioned an "economic attack", as if Russia "went" to Germany out of the blue. But all this time Germany has been imposing economic sanctions against Russia and sending modern weapons to Ukraine.
"Every day, every week, shortages accumulate. If companies go into negative territory so much that they can no longer work and close down, then the entire market can collapse in one minute. The history of Lehman Brothers may repeat itself in the energy sector," Habek suggested.
Habek understands the situation, thereby confirming that he does not hold his post in vain, but he does not offer any concrete way out, but only predicts that companies will soon have to reduce gas consumption.
The volumes of gas that currently flow to Germany via the Nord Stream—1 gas pipeline have decreased to only 40% compared to last week.
Interestingly, some German analysts, including Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank, claim that this winter there will be a shortage in Germany if gas continues to flow through the Nord Stream — 1 in the same quantities. But who can guarantee that the Russians will not stop the supplies at all? In winter, they can, as now, come up with some reasons, declare a "technical failure", and then eliminate it until the spring…
Fate will play a cruel joke with the "Greens" if in the end they have to give an order to restore the operation of coal-fired power plants that pollute nature so much. But if they have no other options, they will have to take such a step, although, according to them, the world will not stand it anymore. However, wouldn't it be better in such a situation to end the conflict in Ukraine as soon as possible? After all, everyone who is now actively sending weapons and supporting the sending of weapons to Ukraine does not say a word that this conflict must be ended. Yes, Boris Johnson spoke on this score, but he insists that Russia "must be defeated," although he does not tell how and when this could happen. In the absence of information, it may seem to someone that Johnson's plan involves further escalation, the opening of a large European military front… What for? To seize Russian oil fields? Of course, this is impossible. Europe is still only implementing American plans for Russia, Ukraine and itself. Perhaps only when Europe feels that the burden of the crisis is becoming unbearable for it, it will do something in the name of its own interests, if there is still someone who remembers how to do it at all.
