Middle East between Biden's visit and Ibn Salman's tour
Biden's visit to the Middle East on July 13 is unlikely to please Russia. As always, the Egyptian publication "Nun-post" writes, the United States is selfish. They are primarily interested in restoring their influence in the region, and here Russia is their competitor. Nevertheless, there is no trace of the arrogance of Obama, who announced the withdrawal of the US from the Middle East to gather forces to fight China.
Currently, the Middle East is going through a period of serious geopolitical transformation. He was influenced by many regional and international changes, including the struggle over the Iranian nuclear program or the Ukrainian crisis.
Global political problems, the security situation, economic and humanitarian crises forced the administration of US President Joe Biden to return the Middle East region to its list of priorities. Although earlier his country declared China the main challenge for Americans. therefore, it is no coincidence that the American leader's Middle East tour will still take place in mid-July.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will also embark on a tour of the Middle East, during which he will visit Jordan, Egypt and Turkey to prepare the ground for the upcoming visit of US President Joe Biden to the region.
If Ibn Salman achieves common agreements with Jordan, Egypt and Turkey before Biden's visit, the US administration will be forced to reconsider the nature of its relations with Saudi Arabia, which deteriorated sharply after the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. (Sometimes in the Russian press, the surname of this murdered author of the Washington Post is transcribed as Hashukji - approx. InoSMI.)
The US is back in the region again
Biden's upcoming visit to the Middle East is his first trip there as President of the United States. This also indicates a change in American policy towards the region. It should be noted that earlier the US administration prioritized East Asia, and then the Ukrainian crisis, and not the Middle East.
This visit will take place against the backdrop of growing tensions in the region. First of all, we are talking about the situation with the Palestinian problem, the stalled negotiations with Iran, the political crises in Iraq and Lebanon, as well as other regional problems.
Biden is well aware that he will not be able to abandon the commitments that the United States has undertaken in this region, because this will change the balance of power in the Middle East and negatively affect the normalization process between the Gulf states and Israel.
In addition, Biden must solve all the problems before Russia and China regain their influence in the Middle East. If the Americans continue to move away from the countries of the Persian Gulf, especially from Saudi Arabia, they will most likely lose their allies in the region.
The US president plans to visit Saudi Arabia and Israel, but his Middle East tour may include other countries. Everything will depend on the results of the new security strategy that the US administration is trying to implement in the region at the current stage.
Saudi Arabia's strategic position
Prince Mohammed bin Salman, as part of his tour of the Middle East, is trying to create the appearance that Saudi Arabia is still able to form alliances or conclude regional agreements without the approval of the American administration. Consequently, the attempt to achieve mutual understanding with Jordan, Egypt and Turkey is intended to show Riyadh's ability to help solve a number of problems. First of all, we are talking about Iran's nuclear program and the process of normalization of relations between the Arab world and Israel.
Mohammed bin Salman will try to soften the US pressure on Saudi Arabia, whether it is with regard to Israel or the situation in Yemen.
The results of Ibn Salman's visit to Jordan, Egypt and Turkey may affect the summit of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Persian Gulf (GCC) in Riyadh, which Biden plans to attend. According to sources, the countries participating in the summit will discuss regional security and threats from Iran.
Ibn Salman's Middle East tour is aimed at coordinating political positions on regional issues that may have an impact on the Riyadh summit. US President Joe Biden, on the eve of his visit to Israel, said that America's first priority is to ensure the security of its allies. It seems that the United States is seeking to create a military alliance against Iran in the region, since significant progress has not been achieved in the negotiations on the nuclear dossier.
Iran in the spotlight
Currently, Iran is in the center of regional and international attention. Biden and Ibn Salman's tours are largely related to the changes caused by Tehran. First of all, we are talking about the Iranian nuclear program and the threats posed by its ballistic missiles and drones.
Based on this, the upcoming summit in Riyadh will determine the future strategy of the United States towards Iran and its allies. Israel seems to be most interested in Biden's visit leading to a program of action that will restrain Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons.
However, Israel itself is not sitting idly by: he was able to transfer the fighting against the Iranians not only to Syria, but also deep into the territory of Iran. Israel has begun to eliminate officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and scientists working at nuclear facilities. And all this — after the termination of negotiations on disarmament in Vienna. Iran is the head of an octopus that constantly threatens Israel. In this regard, Tel Aviv will confront the Iranian threat directly, and not just strike at its "tentacles"-allies in Iraq or Syria. This was stated by Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.
It seems that the Middle East is on the verge of great changes. Global crises, including the situation in Ukraine, forced the Biden administration to change its strategy towards this region. In addition, the seriousness of the threats emanating from the Middle East was once again proved.
The flow of militants, weapons and drug smuggling threaten not only American interests, but also global security. The confrontation with Russia revealed the vulnerability of NATO countries, and also affected the Middle East, where US military bases are located.
The escalation of the food and energy crises may negatively affect the American presence in the region. Preventive measures must be taken before the United States is forced to spend a huge amount of resources and effort to solve these problems.
Ilyas Firas (─راس إلياس /)
