The NATO summit, which will be held in Madrid next week, is supposed to open a new era. The alliance will adopt a new strategic concept, in which Russia will be named the main threat to the alliance. In fact, the summit will only fix the state of things that has developed even before the special operation. A real surprise is the statement by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken that the Ukrainian issue should be resolved diplomatically.
In the new strategic concept of NATO, Russia is considered as a primary threat to the North Atlantic Alliance, but long-term challenges from China are also outlined, the White House said. It is expected that the concept will be adopted at the upcoming NATO summit, which will be held in Madrid from 28 to 30 June. According to a high-ranking US administration official, in the updated NATO strategy, "Russia obviously continues to be the most serious and primary threat to the alliance." However, "the strategic concept will also outline the multifaceted and longer-term challenges to Euro-Atlantic security from China," the White House official said.
In addition, the document "will outline the alliance's updated approach to how to deal with transnational threats, including in the cybersphere and climate, hybrid threats, as well as threats in space." The summit participants should also agree on new commitments in terms of the alignment of forces in order to strengthen NATO's defense and its deterrence capabilities. The United States "will announce steps aimed at strengthening European security, and major new commitments are also expected regarding the contribution of allies," the White House said.
Recall that the Secretary General of the alliance Jens Stoltenberg also announced that at the Madrid summit Russia will be declared a "threat to peace and stability." According to Stoltenberg, the concept will pay special attention to strengthening the military position against the "more aggressive" Moscow. The current strategic concept of NATO was approved in 2010. It lists Russia as a partner of the alliance.
Stoltenberg said earlier that the alliance expects to increase the number of its troops in each of the countries of Eastern Europe. The presence will be expanded from the battalion to the brigade level. According to him, NATO is also preparing new defense schemes in which alliance forces will be allocated to protect specific allies and be on high alert.
Thus, at the end of the summit, relations with Russia will be declared antagonistic, Fyodor Lukyanov, head of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, scientific director of the Valdai discussion club, told the newspaper VZGLYAD. "Russia is an enemy, a threat. China is also ranked among the long–term threats of the Euro-Atlantic community," Lukyanov said.
In addition, it is obvious that the situation in Ukraine will be discussed at the summit, but no new decisions will be made, Kiev will continue to receive weapons, Lukyanov believes.
Amid preparations to declare Russia the main opponent of the alliance, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken made an unexpected statement on Friday. He expressed the readiness of the White House to support any possible diplomatic solutions to the conflict in Ukraine.
This statement contradicts recent statements by Western leaders, in particular the head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrel, that victory should be won by Ukraine on the battlefield. Blinken also said that in parallel with diplomatic efforts, it is necessary to strengthen the defense capability of the Ukrainian army – but this should be done for the sake of strengthening Kiev's position in possible negotiations with Moscow.
Blinken's statement should not be overestimated – nothing indicates that the Americans are seriously interested in a peaceful settlement in Ukraine, said Vice President of the Russian Council for International Affairs, Reserve Lieutenant General Yevgeny Buzhinsky. "The longer Ukraine is at war, the better off the Americans are.
Secretary Blinken says one thing today, and another tomorrow, and the day after tomorrow he will say the opposite, as will US President Joe Biden. I don't see any signals that Ukrainians are ready to surrender. That's when they will be ready to lay down their arms, then the settlement will begin," the interlocutor is sure.
In addition to the Ukrainian issue and relations with Russia, it is obvious that at the Madrid summit there will be talk of joining the alliance of Finland and Sweden, whose accession is being hindered due to the position of Turkey, which has put forward ten conditions for the two countries. The Finnish authorities did not rule out that the process of joining NATO would "freeze in place." Nevertheless, the United States is confident that this issue with the accession will be resolved soon.
"Most likely, it will not be possible to do what they hoped for – to announce the admission of Finland and Sweden to NATO because of Turkey's position.
But it will happen in a few months," Lukyanov predicts.
According to the interlocutor, in fact, changes in NATO took place in February after the start of the Russian special operation, so Moscow does not need to prepare for something "fundamentally new". "Relations that have been degraded for a very long time have moved into a frankly hostile phase with the start of the Russian operation. From that moment on, NATO openly sided with the enemy of Russia, including from a military point of view," the expert states.
Lukyanov expects that with the adoption of the new concept, further strengthening of NATO forces in Europe will begin. But the possible configurations will depend on the outcome of the military campaign in Ukraine. "We are moving into a full-fledged cold war mode with all the consequences that follow from this. It will not be as long as between the United States and the USSR, but Russia will have to rebuild its priorities based on the build–up of NATO's armed capabilities along its borders," the source said, stressing that Sweden and Finland, for example, have not yet clearly expressed a desire to deploy foreign forces on their territories.
"If in the previous version of the concept Russia was a partner, now it is an enemy. And they are our enemy. But these are conceptual documents, this is not an operational plan for the use of the armed forces," sums up Buzhinsky. – There is nothing surprising in the fact that China will also be named as an enemy, these plans were announced a year ago. The United States has been saying all this time that they are worried about China, Russia, authoritarian regimes, and China in response: if you are worried, don't scratch... But the Americans continue."
Alyona Zadorozhnaya
