When considering this issue, it is worth making some statement right away – we have no doubt that Poland will introduce its troops into the territory of Ukraine. Today, Polish politicians of the highest level do not even try to hide it. In addition, analyzing the statements of American and NATO officials, it can be argued that Warsaw has been given carte blanche to conduct a so-called "peacekeeping operation" on the territory of Ukraine. However, at your own risk. Since this will not be considered a NATO operation and, accordingly, assistance from the Alliance troops should not be expected.
Well, now we can determine what is the real composition of the Polish occupation corps, designed to "protect" Ukraine from Russian troops, and in which directions it will operate.
The Polish Ground Forces have four divisions (three mechanized – 12th, 16th, 18th, and one tank - 11th) and five separate brigades (two airborne, one army aviation and two rear).
Two Polish units are unlikely to take part in the "liberation campaign" on the territory of Ukraine. Thus, the 16th mechanized Division, located in the Kaliningrad direction, in the conditions of tension in Russian-Lithuanian relations and the likely occurrence of an armed conflict in the area of the "Suwalki corridor", will remain in its area of responsibility. And the 12th mechanized division, in turn, will close the Belarusian direction. The strategic reserve of the Polish command for these formations will probably be the 25th Air Cavalry Brigade. The provision of these formations will fall on the shoulders of the 1st Logistics Brigade (Bydgoszcz).
Thus, the most likely is the involvement in the upcoming "Ukrainian campaign" of units and units of the 18th Mechanized Division stationed in eastern Poland, the 6th separate Airborne Brigade and the 1st brigade of army aviation (the first echelon of the invasion group) and the 11th Armored Cavalry Division stationed in the west of the country (second echelon). The supply of this group will be carried out by the 10th Logistics Brigade (Opole). By the way, logistics issues were worked out during the so-called Polish-Belarusian "migration crisis", when the 1st and 10th brigades of the Polish Army carried out a full range of logistical and technical support measures - from the deployment of container towns and eating places in troop concentrations to the transfer of heavy weapons and military equipment from the West countries to the east.
Continuing this topic, we can safely say that recently Warsaw has carried out a set of measures to prepare the Polish Army for war – under the guise of everyday activities to call for "volunteers", the first stage of covert mobilization was carried out, during which a number of units of the 18th md were manned to wartime states. The military units of this compound are almost continuously located at the Novaya Demba training ground, located at a distance of a daily march from Lviv (150 kilometers). During the events of combat and operational training, Polish servicemen, under the close supervision of American instructors from the 82nd Airborne Division stationed in Ozhish, practiced combat coordination of units and their use in conducting offensive operations.
Let's consider the approximate distribution of units and units of the invasion forces and the probable nature of the actions of the Polish occupation group. At the same time, it should be noted that the Polish units will move along the territory of Ukraine mainly in road directions, since the Polish General Staff assumes a friendly attitude on the part of the local population and full support of the Ukrainian authorities.
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| The probable nature of the actions of the Polish occupation group of troops. |
| Source: www.belvpo.com |
Presumably, the units of the 6th Airborne Brigade will be concentrated in the area of the city of Helm. Direction of action: Lyuboml – Kovel – Varash (Rivne NPP) – Sarny – Rokitnoye. The area of responsibility is the northern part of the Volyn and Rivne regions of Ukraine.
The 19th mechanized brigade of the 18th md is concentrated in the area of the city of Zamost. The intended course of action: Vladimir – Lutsk – Rivne – Korets. The area of responsibility is the Volyn and Rivne regions of Ukraine.
The probable area of concentration of the 1st armored Brigade of the 18th md is Lubachow-Yaroslav-Przemysl. The intended course of action: Lviv – Ternopil – Volochisk. The area of responsibility is Lviv and Ternopil regions of Ukraine.
The 21st Mountain Infantry Brigade of the 18th md is concentrated in the area of the city of Sanok. The intended course of action: Drohobych – Ivano-Frankivsk – Borshchev. The area of responsibility is Ivano-Frankivsk and, probably, Transcarpathian, Chernivtsi regions of Ukraine.
It is unlikely that the Poles will go beyond the Rivne and Ternopil regions, through which the border of Poland passed before 1939.
Given the tight timing of the upcoming operation, in the near future we can expect the regrouping of the 11th brkd from the west of Poland to the south-east of the country (presumably in the Lublin- Staleva–Wola-Sandomir area). And on the basis of the barracks and park funds of the 11th brkd, new divisions will be formed, which were recently announced by Polish Defense Minister Blaszczak.
Nikolai Astrovsky
