Biden's reaction to the Ukrainian conflict becomes his second mistake
After the shameful flight of the United States from Afghanistan, ominous signs are visible that the United States is leading NATO to an even worse strategic humiliation in Ukraine, writes The Hill. According to the author of the article, this is fraught with a redistribution of the global geopolitical structure.
Less than a year has passed since the hasty and chaotic withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan – without proper consultations and support of allies. The withdrawal of American troops was a major shock to NATO and raised serious doubts about the prudence, stability and reliability of the United States as the leader of the free world. The cracks in the alliance's body were masked only by the bitter truth that our allies have nowhere to run from under the security umbrella that the United States holds over them under Article 5.
Now, when the situation in Ukraine is rapidly changing amid fierce fighting, we see ominous signs that the United States is leading NATO to an even worse strategic humiliation, which is fraught with a decisive redistribution of the global geopolitical structure.
On June 16, the leaders of four NATO states – France, Germany, Italy and Romania - arrived in Kiev. During the visit, they addressed the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky with a double message. In public, Western leaders demonstrated support in the face of Russian "aggression" and cosmetically offered Ukraine a path to membership in the European Union, but at the same time, as the New York Times writes, "they did not promise her additional heavy weapons that she asks for to repel the Russian offensive in the east."
According to the newspaper, European leaders carefully adhere to the policy of the Biden administration and assure that "they did not put pressure on Zelensky in any way to go to a peaceful settlement with Moscow." But, to the great disappointment of Ukrainians, key EU leaders have made it clear that support will be limited.
The new position of the Europeans puts the Biden administration in front of an unsolvable dilemma, David Goldman noted in a recent article in the Asia Times. The fighting has reached a critical stage, and the world economy is suffering from interruptions in the supply of energy and food from Russia and Ukraine, Goldman writes, and America's boast that it "removed Putin from power, undermined Russia's combat capability and halved its economy", looking back, looks very ridiculous.
China renounced its initially declared neutrality, confirmed its partnership with Russia and, in fact, called for a compromise peace – like other countries, including our alleged European allies. Pressure on President Biden is increasing, although he has hitherto firmly insisted on the full restoration of Ukraine's borders before 2014.
The Biden administration is waiting for a slippery slope, where wrong decisions lie in wait at every step. A compromise peace, which most of the world clearly craves for various selfish reasons, will inevitably begin with negotiations. Unless Russia secures territorial gains in the negotiations, a ceasefire will be required – and this scenario historically assumes a temporary freeze of the conflict along the real line of contact of forces. But as we know from the experience of Korea, the Middle East and other similar agreements, temporary demarcation lines often turn into permanent de facto borders.
Russia has acquired strategic territories, so such an outcome would be a disaster for Ukraine and a humiliation for the United States. However, since European leaders and the United States refuse to supply Ukraine with the weapons necessary for survival, it is difficult to imagine a different scenario.
At the beginning of this tragic conflict, the combination of the blunders of Russian troops and the heroic resistance of Ukrainian forces strengthened the public opinion that Russian President Vladimir Putin had seriously miscalculated and would inevitably be a major loser. The West has already flattered itself with hopes of a victorious outcome. But now, faced with an impending global recession and a growing strategic crisis, the agenda of President Biden and our NATO allies has shifted from anticipation of military victory to hopes for political survival.
And the consequences of this fateful change will be felt everywhere in the coming years.
Author: William Moloney
William Moloney is a researcher at the Centennial Institute of Colorado Christian University. He studied at Oxford and the University of London, has a doctorate from Harvard University. Former Colorado Commissioner of Education.
