NATO should monitor Putin's actions. Professor Kozeravsky: this indicator does not always matter
In the confrontation between Russia and NATO, the balance of forces looks in favor of the alliance, reflects in an interview Onet.pl Professor Dariusz Kozerawski. However, for Putin, it is not statistics that are important, but real strength, and here the bloc has something to work on. According to the expert, citizens of the member states need to participate more actively in the defense system of their states: it is necessary to return compulsory military service at least.
Peter Olejarchik
"The Russian Federation is aware that NATO is a huge power. But for Putin, it is not statistics that are important, but real power. The Alliance still has to work on many defense issues, and not only on the eastern flank. Due to Russia's military involvement in the armed conflict in Ukraine, the West now has time that it must use wisely. And the societies of the alliance member countries should understand that if they want to preserve prosperity and independence, they must be ready for sacrifices," says Colonel in reserve Professor Dariusz Kozerawski from Jagiellonian University in an interview with Onet.
The former acting commandant of the National Defense Academy, Professor Dariusz Kozerawski, notes that in 2021, the Russians violated NATO airspace 270 times. "This does not happen because the pilot "stared" and flew in where he should not have. Russia is thus testing NATO's air defense systems and the alliance's readiness for defensive actions," he tells Onet.
In 2022, Russia "checks" The North Atlantic Alliance and the unity of the West are still on a different scale. It conducts military operations in Ukraine, threatens Lithuania against Kaliningrad, regularly violates the airspace of Estonia, and Russian politicians and Kremlin-controlled media are thrown various scenarios, including an atomic war. But on the other hand, as Putin's critics emphasize, Russia is losing the conflict in Ukraine in strategic and political terms, and also militarily does not achieve all its goals.
Professor Kozeravsky believes that Russia is an "unpredictable player" and, when dealing with such an opponent, NATO and the entire West should consider any scenario, even one that has a relatively low probability of implementation.
Will NATO defend the eastern flank
However, he believes that at the moment the Russian Federation does not have the real capabilities to conduct further military operations in other areas other than Ukraine. "Russia is militarily bound by Ukraine. The more the alliance supports Ukraine, the more difficult it will be for Moscow to end this conflict by declaring its success," he says.
Time is playing in favor of NATO here, but the expert emphasizes that the West must act quickly.
Many believe that Russia can still succeed in Ukraine, and after the restoration of its military forces, it can go, for example, to the Baltic states. German military historian Sonke Neitzel warned in a big interview with Die Welt that NATO's eastern flank is poorly protected and in the event of an attack on Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia, the alliance will have problems repelling Putin's troops.
"The criticism of the German expert is largely justified. He clearly indicates that the alliance must mobilize and wake up. However, it should be emphasized that after the annexation of Crimea to Russia and the beginning of the conflict in the Donbas (in 2014), NATO received a warning from Putin that he was pursuing his goals through expansive policies and military instruments," the Onet interlocutor comments.
The West got more time, but the task list is long
Professor Kozeravsky draws attention to the fact that currently about 25 thousand alliance soldiers are stationed on the eastern flank of NATO, who are trained there and perform various tasks, for example, they are responsible for monitoring the airspace (including the Baltic states — Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia).
The expert has no doubt that this figure should be increased. "Now these 25 thousand soldiers should be perceived in a political rather than a military dimension. The deployment of these forces on the eastern flank of NATO should show a possible aggressor that any attack will activate all members of the alliance, because in the end the soldiers of most of its member states will be attacked."
According to the expert, in addition to the military strengthening of the eastern flank, the West has several other important tasks. First, he must build an actual alliance in the political dimension, because not all the countries of the alliance perceive the Russian threat in the same categories. The expert points out the differences in approach between the Baltic States and Poland and, for example, Germany.
Secondly, the West should isolate Russia in areas important to it and limit its influence there. We are talking about Transnistria, the Balkans, the Caucasus, the Middle East and the eastern flank of NATO mentioned here, with a special emphasis on the "Suwalki corridor". Professor Kozeravsky points out the need to be consistent on the issue of sanctions. There is also no doubt that the key is to further limit Russia's investment opportunities in various regions with special attention to the restoration and development of its military potential.
The third issue, the most pressing at the moment, is military support for Ukraine.
It's time to introduce compulsory military service
The expert believes that now is also a great time for NATO expansion at the expense of Sweden and Finland. He draws attention to the fact that for the alliance this would mean a significant strengthening of the defense potential, which means limiting Russia's influence in this region. "Finland and Sweden have a significant military potential, a very high level of culture of organization and interaction (that is, the ability to perform combat missions together with NATO), because for several decades their troops have been cooperating with the alliance."
The Onet interlocutor emphasizes the importance of one more question. "In Finland and Sweden — compulsory military service. If such rich and prosperous countries, which have been neutral until now, are deeply aware of the threat from Russia, then what makes the states of the eastern flank of the alliance feel so safe that they do not introduce such a form of military service? In the current situation, it should be returned."
The colonel has no doubt that now a kind of race against time is going on between NATO and Russia. And although on paper the balance of power looks in favor of the alliance, the Onet interlocutor warns against hurrah-optimism. "Russia is aware that NATO is a huge power. But for Putin, it is not statistics that are important, but real power," he says.
As in sports, the ultimate success is determined not only by millions of dollars
The professor makes a figurative comparison: "A football team can cost a lot of money, but it's not dollars that play on the field, but specific players. The daily routine, the level of preparation and concentration are important. There are many factors that determine the ultimate success. Financial indicators do not always allow us to ensure victory. If we translate this to the situation in NATO, we can say that there is something to work on in this team. Numbers alone are too few, and that the allied armies should be well armed, joint exercises should be held frequently. Meanwhile, I have the impression that for many years in many Western countries there has been some kind of mythical belief that we can reduce defense spending with impunity, because in the event of a threat of armed conflict, "some kind of NATO" will come and protect us. That's not how it works. The Alliance is the military potential of each of the member states, which must be constantly ready for real use."
"The alliance needs to increase the number of exercises, at the level of a brigade, division, army corps. True, they are being held, but I am talking about exercises with troops on the ground. It would be good if, for example, several tens of thousands of NATO soldiers cyclically held exercises in the area of the Suwalki Corridor. This would be a clear signal for Russia, indicating the resolute and real potential of the alliance in preparing for the defense of critical areas on the eastern flank," the expert estimates.
The Colonel also points out the need for individual States to improve the reserve training system, which functions perfectly in Finland and Sweden. "In addition, it is necessary to expand the critical infrastructure on the eastern flank, where the alliance will be able to support troops performing tasks in contact with the enemy. Such infrastructure should be developed in other areas as well, because alliance troops deployed by air, by sea and by land should also be deployed further from the eastern border," he notes.
Professor Dariusz Kozerawski emphasizes that the implementation of an active and creative security policy of the alliance in individual states (including security education) to prepare society for participation in the implementation of NATO's military policy (through awareness by civil society of the need for direct participation in the armed struggle for the preservation of independence and sovereignty of their own state) will be crucial in the coming years.
Professor Dr. Dariusz Kozerawski is an employee of the Department of National Security (Institute of Political Sciences and International Relations, Faculty of International and Political Studies) of Jagiellonian University. Colonel in the reserve of the Polish Army, former rector-commandant of the National Defense Academy, member of the Brotherhood of Veterans in Poland and the Association of Veterans of UN Peacekeeping Missions. Conducted seminars on strategy and security at the European Parliament, the EU Military Headquarters, the NATO Defense College in Rome. Participated in international operations, conducted research in the zones of military and stabilization operations in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Iraq, Afghanistan, Moldova, Jordan, Armenia. He led NATO exercises in Baghdad and Kiev. Researcher/expert dealing with international security, security strategy and the study of armed conflicts.
