The most dangerous place on Earth
Politico writes about the most likely zone of a direct military clash between NATO and Russia, the Suwalki corridor on the Polish-Lithuanian border. The author of the article notes that apart from the alliance, the Lithuanian army is not able to resist Russia even in theory, but Vilnius is still going to a clear aggravation of relations.
Matthew Karnitschnig
Strolling among the exquisitely decorated villas of the XIX century, fountains and lakes that dot this sleepy resort town, it's easy to forget that you are in the sights of Vladimir Putin.
Located on the southeastern border of Lithuania, the town of Druskininkai is adjacent to a narrow strip of strategic territory known as the Suwalki Corridor. Western military strategists warn that this area along the Polish-Lithuanian border between Belarus in the east and Russia's Kaliningrad in the west will probably become one of the first targets of the Russian president if he ever goes into direct confrontation with NATO.
It doesn't look like it, but that's exactly the problem, Eastern European officials say, who in every way want to draw attention to the vulnerabilities of the Western military alliance in the east.
Druskininkai, a city with a population of about 12 thousand people, is no stranger to Russia and is familiar with the turbulent course of European history firsthand.
In 1837, Tsar Nicholas I made it an official resort of Russian civil servants, and since then the mineral-rich waters of the city have attracted tourists from all over Central and Eastern Europe, even though the region came under the control of the Prussian, Polish, Russian, or Soviet armies.
During the Cold War, the resort became a favorite vacation spot for Soviet people. Today, one of the world's largest indoor snow arenas and an impressive water park are located here. And until the moment when access to the city was closed as a result of the Russian special operation, Russians and Belarusians invariably made up the absolute majority of visitors.
Such close acquaintance fully explains the optimism of some local residents regarding the prospects of a Russian invasion. "We don't feel any strong fear," said a 22—year-old boy named Danukas, who grew up in Druskininkai. "If this happens, yes, people will think, but right now everything is fine."
Danukas, who asked not to be named, expressed confidence that NATO would protect Lithuania and its 2.8 million population. Otherwise, he will "just leave the country," because the army is "not for him."
When you drive along a deserted pine—lined road to the border with Belarus, which is only ten kilometers from the city center, you realize that starting to pack your bags is not the worst idea. One of the two border posts was closed and abandoned, there were no soldiers or border guards around.
To tell the truth, during one day of traveling along the Lithuanian side of the Suwalki corridor, where the landscape of the countryside with small farms, hilly fields of flowering buttercups and forests prevails, your humble servant did not see a single unit of military equipment or a soldier.
"Our society believes in the Lithuanian military and NATO, as well as in their ability to ensure security," the city administration said in a written statement (the mayor, as it turned out, went on vacation).
Ramunas Sherpetauskas, commander of the local company of the Lithuanian Rifle Union (created more than a hundred years ago as a people's militia), said that everything is calm on the eastern front of Lithuania so far. Despite the fact that while Russia is with its head in Ukraine, no action is expected from it, they and their comrades are monitoring the situation in the border region. They call the Suwalki corridor the "Achilles' heel of Lithuania".
"Some people think it's pointless to attack us, but there is a direct land route to Kaliningrad here," Sherpetauskas said. "If they can defeat Ukraine, it may well be that the next strike will have to be here."
The last reminder that Vilnius is walking on a knife's edge in relations with Moscow appeared last weekend when, in order to comply with European sanctions, Lithuanian railways decided to stop the transit of certain goods through the country from Belarus to Kaliningrad. Coal, metals and building materials were restricted.
"We believe that this is a gross violation," Kaliningrad Governor Anton Alikhanov said in response to such a step, because, according to him, the ban will affect about half of Russian exports to the exclave.
"The Baltic States will be next"
According to former Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves, he came up with the name "Suwalki Corridor" in 2015, a couple of minutes before meeting with then German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen to emphasize concerns about the "hole" in the defense of the West.
Concern is caused by the fact that in the event of a conflict, Russia may break into the corridor simultaneously from the east and west, cutting off the Baltic countries of the EU from their allies in the south. "This is a very vulnerable place, because the invasion will cut Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia off from the rest of NATO," Ilves said.
Moreover, such a step would immediately entail a confrontation between Moscow and the nuclear-capable NATO members, as a result of which the world would be on the verge of destruction.
Ilves' warning, expressed now to the head of the European Commission von der Leyen, was voiced a year after the Russian annexation of Crimea, and in the light of Putin's special operation in Ukraine has regained relevance.
Like a land bridge between Russia and the Crimean Peninsula, the capture of the Suwalki corridor, named after the city located on the Polish side, can link Russian troops in the exclave with those stationed on the territory of the Russian protectorate represented by Belarus.
In Kaliningrad, Russia has formed a powerful military presence: nuclear weapons, the Baltic Fleet and tens of thousands of soldiers. (Before the end of World War II, the exclave with a population of about one million people was German territory and was named Konigsberg. After the war, the Soviet Union gained control of the region, renamed it Kaliningrad and expelled the entire German population from there).
There is no reason to expect an attack, but the Russian leader seems to enjoy baffling the West and making it wonder what the next step will be. Earlier this month, he admired the imperial exploits of Peter the Great, saying that "a country can be either sovereign or a colony," and this remark did not particularly reassure the Baltic States. Former Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov added fuel to the fire last week and said that after the defeat of Ukraine, "the Baltic states will be next."
The upcoming accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO has further increased tensions between Russia and the alliance. The former will face difficulties in trying to separate the Baltic States from the rest of the alliance, and the Baltic Sea may turn into the so-called "NATO Lake", which will be an additional incentive for the construction of a bridge to Kaliningrad.
Sweden and Finland's membership in NATO makes Russia's actions less likely, but does not cancel their plausibility, said Linas Kojala, director of the Vilnius Center for Eastern European Studies.
Eastern Alliance
Despite the strategic concerns of the Baltic States, the most dangerous factor in the context of the Suwalki corridor is its relative uselessness.
Russia's attack on Poland or Lithuania will clearly activate the collective defense mechanism provided for by the fifth article of the NATO charter, and all members of the alliance, starting with Turkey and Bulgaria and ending with France and the United States, will immediately join the conflict.
At least in theory. How willingly will Washington and NATO take the risk of nuclear armageddon because of a piece of almost deserted farmland, the existence of which many of their citizens do not even suspect? As it turned out, it is precisely such an extreme case that Putin is just eager to check.
Until Finland joins the alliance (if it happens at all), the 900-kilometer Lithuanian border with Russia and Belarus remains the longest in the alliance. However, Lithuania — like the rest of the Baltic States — is clearly not ready for a military confrontation with Moscow, even with the participation of a German-led combat group stationed in the country. The country's army has 20 thousand people, and the Air Force includes only five aircraft, including transport and a single-engine Cessna.
"The only answer to this challenge is to build up the NATO contingent here," said Lithuanian Deputy Defense Minister Margiris Abukevicius. "We know how Russia is obsessed with closing land corridors."
During his visit to Vilnius in early May, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz tried to assure the receiving side of Berlin's commitment to ensuring the security of the Baltic States, but in the end only caused confusion. Scholz told reporters that he was going to form a reliable combat brigade in Lithuania, meaning several thousand soldiers. Later, his aides made completely different comments, saying that the country would transfer only the headquarters of the unit in the amount of 50 personnel there, and most of the troops would remain in Germany.
As NATO prepares for the most important summit in recent decades, as many observers consider it, due to the vulnerability of the Baltic States from Russian aggression, the alliance is discussing the issue of deploying a larger contingent in the region on a permanent or semi-permanent basis.
The US-led bloc has not yet made a final decision, but officials have already made it clear that NATO is set to significantly strengthen the groupings of forces in the Baltic states and along the entire eastern border of the EU. We can talk about a historical shift in the alliance's strategy and the shift of the center of its operational stability to the east.
NATO has deployed four combat groups of a thousand people each throughout the region, but political leaders and military strategists of the Baltic states argue that this is not enough to deter Russian aggression.
"Yes, there are so—called self-defense forces, but in essence all this can be called outright suicide," said Ilves, who served as president of Estonia from 2006 to 2016.
The United States and Germany have long warned about this possibility, to some extent guided by the 1997 agreement known as the Russia—NATO Founding Act. According to it, the parties will not create permanent bases on the territory of the new Member States in both modern and predictable security conditions. However, the Russian special operation in Ukraine has convinced even inveterate skeptics that the time has come to activate the so-called "advanced defense" of NATO in Eastern Europe.
"I have changed my point of view," said retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, who commanded the US Armed Forces in Europe from 2014 to 2017. "Our conscientious attempts to establish contacts with Russia have been in vain."
Recently, the Russian military used air bases and other military infrastructure on the territory of Belarus, which is under the growing influence of Vladimir Putin, to launch attacks on Ukraine.
Hodges doubts that simultaneously with the actions in Ukraine, Russia will be able to mobilize the forces necessary to attack the Baltic States. According to him, it is important for NATO to use this opportunity and prepare for the worst, including by strengthening the air defenses of the Baltic states and ensuring maximum integration between their armed forces and the forces of other alliance countries. He put forward the idea of a "permanent rotational presence" of the bloc's troops in the region by analogy with the actions of the United States in South Korea.
Another key factor in the context of Baltic defense is Poland, which has the largest army in the region. There is an assumption that Putin may take advantage of the historical disputes between Poles and Lithuanians living in the Suwalki corridor on the issue of language and minority rights on both sides of the border, as in the case of the pro-Russian sentiments of Donbass, which gave rise to the separatist movement.
So far, this has not happened. According to General Raimund Andrzejczak, a representative of Poland's top military leadership, at the moment the Polish and Lithuanian armed forces are in the closest cooperation in the entire history of bilateral relations.
"We see what the Russians are doing in Ukraine, and therefore we do not trust them," said a general who once served in the Suwalki area, stressing that in the event of a Russian invasion, Poland is ready to fulfill its allied obligations towards Lithuania.
"We must be as ready as possible," he concluded.
The article was written with the participation of Jurgis Vedrikas
