The US will not cut the NATO umbilical cord, Turkey should do it
Turkey's membership in NATO raises more and more questions, Cumhuriyet writes. The author is sure that there is not a single satisfactory answer to the question of what advantages Ankara has seen over 70 years. At the same time, NATO without Turkey means a number of advantages for Ankara. And these are the ones.
Mehmet Ali Guller
Whenever we question Turkey's membership in NATO, the following argument arises before us: the veto card is a great advantage in Turkey's hands, it is better to be in the alliance than out of it.
And there is not a single satisfactory answer to the question of what advantages we have seen over 70 years!
There are also some theses put forward in opposition. For example, there is the following point of view: the United States is going to kick Turkey out of NATO and therefore draw a new border along the axis Greece – Aegean Sea – Crete – Southern Cyprus – Israel...
The new NATO Border
Regarding the point of view that we will consider in the article, first of all, we note: of course, there is no exclusion mechanism in NATO, but if it comes to that, then, of course, the United States/NATO will find a suitable "law" and a way.
Therefore, let's omit the technical side of this thesis and focus on its essence.
Can the US draw a new NATO border, leaving Turkey behind? Will the Greece–Southern Cyprus–Israel line be the new border of the alliance?
Indeed, with the conclusion of a new agreement in the field of defense, the United States turned Greece almost into an "American garrison", concentrated military forces everywhere, from Alexandroupolis to Crete. The United States is really inclined to ease and lift sanctions against Southern Cyprus step by step. The United States did grant Israel permanent representation at NATO headquarters in 2016 (unfortunately, with the approval of the Justice and Development Party of Turkey).
But does all this mean a "new NATO border"?
An undesirable picture for the USA
Let's imagine: what will the United States have to give up in the case of a "new NATO border"?
1) NATO without Turkey means the collapse of US plans for the Black Sea and the abandonment of the goal of turning the Black Sea into a NATO lake. (Although the US cannot achieve this even with NATO and Turkey and is trying to use the Ukrainian crisis for this purpose.)
2) NATO without Turkey means the failure of US plans for the Caucasus, as well as goals related to Central Asia.
3) NATO without Turkey means the institutionalization of Russian-Turkish-Iranian cooperation and its transition to a strategic partnership.
4) NATO without Turkey means that Turkey will become part of the Greater Eurasian Partnership.
5) NATO without Turkey means Turkey's integration into the new world through the SCO and BRICS.
6) NATO without Turkey means the loss by the United States of the ability to force Turkey to the desired policy, threatening disintegration. Turkey will have a strong military power in Eurasia.
Does the US want such a picture? Definitely not.
The US target is Turkey, tied to the West
Let's recall the US strategy towards Turkey. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken summarized it in two paragraphs on June 9, 2021:
1) Turkey should remain tied to the West.
2) It is necessary to make Turkey stand in solidarity with the United States on some critical issues.
That's why the US cannot imagine NATO without Turkey. The US wants to be able to continue to hold Turkey in the West through the NATO umbilical cord and control Ankara.
In this regard, we must pursue a realistic policy, and not indulge in illusions in the spirit of "the United States will kick Turkey out of NATO" or "the United States is drawing a new NATO border without Turkey."
Turkey can hold scissors
The "undesirable picture for the United States", which I summarized above in six points, is simply necessary for Turkey. Turkey should close the Black Sea, the Caucasus, and the western gates of Central Asia to the United States and become part of the Greater Eurasian Partnership and the new world.
The way to this lies through cutting the NATO umbilical cord.
The United States will not cut this connection, will not want to do it, will try to keep it at least by a thin thread. So Turkey should do it.
