How America is Trying to confront China while Holding Back Russia
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin went on a world tour to strengthen ties with partner countries in the field of security, writes The Economist. However, the author doubts that America, divided within its borders, will have enough will to maintain its dominant position in the world.
China's defense minister, General Wei Fenghe – with an impeccable bearing and in a perfectly fitting green military uniform – greeted the audience before launching into his angry tirade. "We demand that the United States stop denigrating and deterring China. Stop interfering in China's internal affairs. If you want a confrontation, we will fight to the end." His anger was directed towards the awkward figure of Lloyd Austin, a former general and now the United States Secretary of Defense.
A little earlier, Austin had warned the same audience that China was becoming "increasingly aggressive" – that it was militarizing disputed islands in the South China Sea and openly testing Taiwan's defense system for strength. "We will fly, sail and conduct our operations wherever international law allows," Austin stressed. America will continue to sell weapons to Taiwan, "while maintaining our own potential to resist any use of force and other forms of coercion."
This exchange of accusations caused alarm among many of those who attended the Shangri-La Dialogue Asian Security Summit on June 10-12, an annual meeting of ministers, generals and security experts held by the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Singapore. "I have a strong feeling that Ukraine today can grow into East Asia tomorrow," complained Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio. The fact that Generals Wei and Austin met to discuss "defense mechanisms"–rules of interaction at sea and in the air, as well as direct lines of communication –inspired hope. However, their meeting was an indication of how quickly the rivalry between their countries is deepening.
Austin considers the Indo-Pacific region, from Hawaii to the Maldives, "the very heart of America's military-political strategy." It was there that the United States deployed most of its forces. However, can America confidently resist the growing power of China, while simultaneously trying to repel Russia's military actions in Ukraine? Yes, says Austin. "We are able to do this thanks to a large network of alliances and partnerships that covers the whole world." America's ability to attract friends is a factor that allows us to increase military potential, which is especially important now when threats are increasing.
A trip with Austin to Asia and Europe allowed us to see America's military might and how the United States is trying to use the "power of partnerships." Austin went on his tour on the E4-B plane – the so-called "Doomsday plane", on board of which American leaders can even wage a nuclear war. He was accompanied by a C-17 military transport aircraft. Every few hours, Austin's plane refueled in the air–not far from the coasts of Alaska, Japan, the Arabian Peninsula and Italy. During his tour, Austin met with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the U.S.-Canadian nuclear bunker in Colorado, with about 20 ministers in Singapore, with the Prime Minister of Thailand in Bangkok and with the defense ministers of 29 NATO countries in Brussels.
However, not all allies are equal. In Europe, America can rely on NATO, whose members are obliged to protect each other in accordance with Article 5 of the charter of this organization. Meanwhile, China accuses America of trying to create an analogue of NATO in Asia – Austin rejected this claim. "We are not striving for a new Cold war, for the creation of an Asian NATO or for Asia to split into warring blocs," he stressed. America prefers to work in a network of security agreements.
America believes that only China can challenge its dominance in the world. However, now a significant part of the attention of the United States and billions of dollars are being pulled over by Russia, as Washington is trying to help Ukraine and strengthen NATO. Despite the wealth of Europe, as Eric Edelman, a former senior Pentagon official, said, "without the United States, which is able to organize them, the Europeans will not be able to defend themselves."
Defense officials explain the priority of Ukraine at the moment by the fact that if Russia manages to seize the territories of a foreign state by force, it will spur other autocrats to do the same (for example, with Taiwan). According to many experts in the field of foreign policy, if the conflict in Ukraine ends with Russia's defeat, it will strengthen the position of the West in its confrontation with China.
"Ukraine is going through a turning point on the battlefield," Austin said, announcing a new $1 billion aid package to Kiev that will include even more artillery pieces and long–range missiles (although they are still much less than Ukraine is asking for). Austin stopped talking about helping Ukraine "win." Now the goal has become more vague and less ambitious: now America is providing Kiev with "the means to deter [the enemy] and defend" itself.
American officials boast that Putin's military special operation strengthens NATO: Sweden and Finland have expressed a desire to join the alliance. However, not everything is so good. Turkey is blocking their entry. And there are a lot of disagreements between the allies about how the conflict in Ukraine should end.
Fan structure
The NATO summit in Madrid, scheduled for June 29-30, will focus primarily on the threat from Russia, but the situation in Asia will also be a topic for discussion. Most likely, the leaders of Japan, South Korea and Australia will also come to the summit. This is not yet the "league of democracies" that many have dreamed of. But, as one Japanese official said, "the main message is that security in Europe and Asia cannot be divided."
Despite Austin's denials, many in America see a lot of advantages in creating an alliance similar to NATO in Asia (one such organization, the Southeast Asian Treaty Organization, which included eight members, was dissolved in 1977). So far, America is operating within what can be called a "non-treaty organization" – a fan system of bilateral defense agreements with Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines and Thailand, which have no obligations to each other. Japan, the richest country of the above, is bound by its traditions of pacifism. Taiwan, which is the most explosive hotbed, does not have formal diplomatic relations with most countries and does not participate in numerous American military exercises in the region. "Strategic ambivalence" prevents the United States from clearly saying whether it will intervene to stop China's invasion.
Due to the lack of a more coherent structure, America is building a rapidly expanding system of special agreements – a "network security architecture," as one official put it. The Five Eyes Alliance (USA, Australia, Great Britain, Canada and New Zealand) is exchanging intelligence, the AUKUS alliance (USA, Australia and Great Britain) is developing nuclear submarines and other weapons, and QUAD (USA, Australia, India and Japan) is discussing a variety of issues, from vaccines to safety at sea.
In Singapore, Austin persuaded Japan and South Korea to hold a trilateral missile defense exercise, which was facilitated by North Korea's missile tests. In conversations with representatives of Japan and Australia, he insisted on conducting larger-scale military exercises and cooperation in the field of defense technologies. The result, according to Tanvi Madan from the Brookings Institution, turned out to be unusual: "This is no longer a fan structure. And this is not NATO. It's a real web."
This web may not be strong enough to contain China. A lot depends on Japan. Kishida promised to "significantly" increase defense spending, although he did not say that they would soon reach 2% of GDP, which is a benchmark in NATO. The 2015 law provides more opportunities to help allies. Japan and Australia have signed an agreement allowing them to deploy their troops on each other's territories. The new national security strategy, which will be approved later this year, could move things further.
India, the largest democracy in the world, is a trophy in America's campaign to build stronger alliances. It is increasingly entering into disputes with Beijing. India's help in securing control over the Strait of Malacca will be truly invaluable in the event of a war with China. The QUAD Alliance, which has already begun to meet at the leadership level, seeks to gradually involve India. However, it is still wary of the union and maintains close relations with Russia, which supplies it with a lot of weapons.
Another prize is the ASEAN organization, which is a club of ten Southeast Asian countries. It includes several States trying to maintain neutrality, such as Indonesia. "We do not believe in alliances that can ultimately threaten other countries," said Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto. Indonesia is conducting military exercises with America, but it does not want to upset China, which is "generous" to it.
America has also resorted to milder forms of cooperation, such as, for example, helping Asian governments to protect their waters, not least from illegal fishing, which China sins. An American Coast Guard cutter will be sent to the region. At the QUAD summit in May, a promise was made to help the countries of the Indo-Pacific region improve "awareness of the situation at sea" by exchanging information about ships in the waters of the region. As one Chinese military source quipped, "watching fishing vessels means watching warships as well."
What about the ability to hold your positions?
Ashley Townshend of the Carnegie Endowment argues that America is still not doing enough in Asia. The mutual Defense Treaty between the closest allies – the United States, Australia and Japan – may cause a hostile reaction from the countries of Southeast Asia. According to Townsend, a more acceptable option would be the creation of a joint military command, that is, instead of a NATO-like treaty, it is necessary to create a military structure similar to NATO.
The big game in Asia is in full swing. And many in America have only a vague idea of it. On board the E4-B aircraft, American news channels were constantly broadcasting, which practically did not mention Austin's world tour and his diplomatic activities aimed at strengthening defense. These channels relentlessly showed footage of the hearings on the storming of the Capitol, reports on weapons, and so on. And this raises an important question: does America, so divided within its borders, have the will to maintain its dominant position in the world?
