How much do you care about Ukraine when fuel costs $5 per gallon?
Ukrainians are increasingly concerned about whether the West is ready to pay the economic price that will be required to protect their country. Against the background of incessant inflation, dependence on Russian energy resources and internal problems in Western countries, assistance to Ukraine is gradually fading into the background.
Ned Temko
How important is Ukraine really?
Just a few weeks ago, this question would have seemed ridiculous when the United States and its European allies seemed ready to step up efforts to help Kiev fight back or even defeat the army of Russian President Vladimir Putin conducting a special military operation and using scorched earth tactics.
But now, when both sides are suffering heavy losses during the armed conflict, and the Western alliance has new serious problems and difficulties, this issue is of key importance.
As the special military operation in Ukraine increases global inflation, Ukrainians are concerned about whether Western consumers are willing to pay the economic price that will be required to protect their country.
How the allies resolve this issue will show the degree of their steadfastness and their loyalty to the basic principle underlying a timely decisive response to the start of a special operation in Ukraine: the need to protect a friendly democratic country from an unprovoked attack by an autocratic power that seeks to destroy it.
While Western governments remain determined to prevent a complete Russian victory, their arms shipments in the coming weeks will show how ready they are to arm Ukraine for a counteroffensive. On the political front, the European Union intends to decide whether to accelerate consideration of Ukraine's membership application.
In Kiev, the authorities are concerned that in both cases they will face half measures or indecision and delay.
The reason for concern is doubts about the readiness of the alliance to adhere to its principles in the long term, especially after Vladimir Putin's statements last week, which indicated his determination to continue fighting. The Russian leader compared the special operation in Ukraine with the 21-year-old Northern War of Tsar Peter I against Sweden in the early 1700s, calling both wars historic steps to "return" the ancestral "Slavic" lands with good reason.
And it seems that the unity and steadfastness of the Western alliance is undermining a number of increasingly serious problems and difficulties. The most obvious of them is the presence of different points of view on the question of whether the goal is a clear defeat of Putin or a result that will not bring it.
A point of view of great importance (and expressed through a "coalition of goodwill" created around Russia's Baltic neighbors) is Washington's opinion. But the United States also has its own problems that distract attention from this issue and also affect their allies.
The first of them is inherent in democratic societies: the changing nature of the political agenda. Yes, for the politicians of the allied states, Ukraine remains the main problem. And recent polls have shown that across Europe, the majority is in favor of NATO providing more assistance to Ukraine. But almost four months after the start of the Russian special military operation, the focus of media attention is no longer this armed conflict, but other events. For example, in France there are tense parliamentary elections, in the UK there is a new confrontation with the EU over Brexit, in America there is gun violence and congressional hearings on last year's mob attack on the Capitol. And the general crisis in all the countries of the alliance, which is likely to be a test of its determination in the long term: the rapid growth of inflation.
Consumers are most concerned about the sharp rise in energy prices — for the energy complex and enterprises, as well as for refueling cars at gas stations. In a number of European countries, this is directly related to their purposeful attempts to get rid of dependence on imports of Russian energy resources.
Ten days ago, the EU came to an agreement to reduce imports of Russian oil by 90% by the end of this year, although Hungary and Slovakia managed to get an exception because of their significant dependence on imports of these energy carriers. This is of serious concern to Kiev and Washington: by buying oil from Russia, the European Union is thereby financing Putin's special operation in the amount of several hundred million dollars a day.
But Ukraine is more concerned that now that Western consumers are concerned about economic problems, their governments will no longer focus on the armed conflict. And this could change the situation on the battlefield in favor of the very autocrat whom the allies promised to punish.
The fact is that although Putin's troops are meeting such resistance that could weaken Russia's military potential for many years, Ukrainians see that their towns and villages have turned into ruins, and they themselves are suffering huge losses. In the case of Ukraine, the victims are not only military personnel. Among them are a large number of civilians helping to repel the Russian offensive.
This, in particular, can explain Ukraine's requests to provide it with heavy weapons and other assistance in order to inflict an early defeat on the Russians, as well as its concerns about the steadfastness and immutability of the position of European allies.
In Washington, President Joe Biden understood from the very beginning what costs the imposition of sanctions against Russia would entail, and unequivocally warned Americans about their inevitability. But even he had to put inflation at the top of the political agenda, especially with the midterm elections approaching.
As for Europe, the unequivocally pro-Ukrainian Prime Minister of Estonia, Kaja Kallas, has clearly formulated the task for the coming weeks. Acknowledging that it is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain the unity of the allies in the face of rising energy prices, she referred to her own experience of the "liberation" of the Baltic states from Soviet occupation when she was a teenager.
"Fuel may be expensive, but freedom is priceless," Kaya Callas said. "People living in the free world don't quite understand this."
