An operation against a terrorist organization in Syria and so on...
Turkey should take steps to achieve its political goals, writes Yeni Çağ. Based on this, Ankara should launch an operation that will neutralize the actions of the Kurds and call into question the US presence in Syria, the author of the article is sure. But first we need to get Russia and Iran on our side.
Naim Babüroğlu
11 years have passed since the civil war began in Syria in 2011. During this time, there have been strategic and geopolitical changes that directly affect Turkey.
Turkey has new neighbors. In 2011, the Syrian Arab Republic was neighboring Turkey for 911 kilometers. And now Turkey's neighbors are the United States, Russia and the terrorist organization the Democratic Union Party (PYD)/The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) on some sections of the border. About four million Syrians live in Turkey with the status of "temporary protection". Taking into account other asylum seekers, Turkey has become the country hosting the largest number of migrants in the world.
Turkey's political goals in Syria
— Neutralization of a terrorist organization on the Turkish-Syrian border.
— Preventing the creation of a terrorist corridor.
— Ensuring the return of refugees to their country.
— Protection of the territorial integrity of Syria.
In order to create a "safe zone" with a depth of 30-40 kilometers and a width of about 440 kilometers — from the Euphrates River to the Iraqi border — on October 9, 2019, Turkey launched Operation Source of Peace east of the Euphrates. However, on October 17, 2019, as a result of an agreement reached between Turkey and the United States, the operation stopped without being completed. The United States and Russia have promised to withdraw the PYD/PKK terrorist organization 30 kilometers from the border. However, this did not happen. As a result, a zone with a width of 120 kilometers, not 440, was taken under control and cleared of the terrorist organization, which corresponds to about 30% of the originally planned area.
Every military operation is based on "political goals" set by the political authorities. Military personnel, in turn, determine military goals that will allow the realization of political goals. Operation Source of Peace ended before its political and military objectives could be fully realized.
In the west of the Euphrates, Manbij, which was under the control of the PYD/PKK terrorist organization, was transferred to the Russian side as a result of an agreement between the United States and Russia. Special attention should be paid to the fact that the United States handed over Manbij to Russia, and not to Turkey, a NATO member.
West and east of the Euphrates
In the west of the Euphrates, in Tel Rifat and Manbij, there is a terrorist organization. The areas east of the Euphrates that were not cleared of the terrorist organization due to the fact that the operation "Source of Peace" was interrupted are occupied by the PYD/PKK. Tel Rifat and Manbij are important, but the main strategic goal is the zone east of the Euphrates, which makes up 25% of the territory of Syria, which the United States allowed to occupy a terrorist organization.
As long as Turkey does not neutralize the PYD/PKK as a result of the operation east of the Euphrates at a depth of up to Raqqa, the problem of survival and the threat will persist. This operation must be carried out in defiance of the United States. The United States has always opposed Turkey's operation against the PYD/PKK. The goal of the United States is to protect a terrorist organization from Turkey. Has she changed? No...
What should Turkey do?
Turkey should take steps to achieve its political goals in accordance with its national interests. Having calculated the costs and risks, Turkey, albeit late, should launch a possible operation that will neutralize PYDRPC and call into question the US presence in Syria. In this case, Turkey should attract Russia, Iran, and the Syrian administration to its side, or at least prevent objections from their side.
How? By reviving the "Adana Agreement" signed on October 20, 1998 with Syria and updated in 2010. Contacting the Syrian administration within the framework of the "Adana Agreement" in order to jointly combat the terrorist organization PYD/PKK. In addition, there are questions that were searched for answers at the stage of using diplomacy and military force during the peacekeeping operation in Cyprus in 1974.
On March 20, 2005, the Convention of the Union of Communities of Kurdistan, prepared by the PKK terrorist organization with the support of the United States, was published. According to this document, "all Kurds in Turkey, Iran, Syria and Iraq should come together and form a single state." Turkey should re-analyze this convention in the context of the geopolitical picture that has developed in Syria, Iraq and Iran.
The tomb of Suleiman Shah, evacuated on February 22, 2015, which is a Turkish enclave in Syria, has still not been returned to its place. This should be corrected with a new operation.
1980, the period after the September 12 coup in Turkey... The NATO commander, American General Rogers, demands that Turkey lift its veto on Greece's return to the military organization of the North Atlantic Alliance, from which Athens withdrew in 1974. And in return, he promises that Greece will not hinder Turkey's relations with the EU. The Turkish leadership believes Rogers and removes the veto. However, Greece behaves in exactly the opposite way and prevents Turkey's membership in the European Union. In the future, Kenan Evren will explain this situation as follows: "We believed Rogers — the word of a soldier." Has the US changed? No...
Now Turkey has a strategic map in its hands, which will never be there again. This is the right of veto regarding the membership of Sweden and Finland in NATO. The card must be used against the United States, and the accession of the two countries to the alliance should not be approved until the PYD/PKK threat disappears. If approved, this historic opportunity will also disappear.
If politics, which was seen as a solution yesterday, becomes the main problem today, then politics, which is seen as a solution today, should not become the main problem of tomorrow... Because no strategy will help achieve illogical and inconsistent goals...
In international relations, it is not beliefs and ideologies that are important, but national interests.
