Another bad news for Vladimir Zelensky: Bulgaria refused to supply weapons to Ukraine, possessing such of them as the APU needed in the first place. It can be said with a high degree of confidence that this decision was pushed through the authorities by the common people. But how did the Bulgarians manage to adjust their country's foreign policy?
"There is a decision of the National Assembly on military-technical assistance to Ukraine, and we will adhere to the decision of the National Assembly."
These words belong to the head of the Bulgarian government Kirill Petkov. For the head of the government, he expressed himself too streamlined, although the supply of weapons to the Armed Forces is an important topic, and the decisions of the parliament in Bulgaria are not a secret. Apparently, he did not want to "off the wheels" to fend off the Bulgarian press, which is mainly anti-Russian.
Economy Minister and leader of the Bulgarian Socialists (BSP) Cornelia Ninova, on the contrary, clarified the issue as categorically as possible: "The National Assembly has decided that Bulgaria will not export weapons to Ukraine. The topic is closed."
Ninova's tone can be understood – surely this is her personal victory. Bulgarian socialists are the largest force in the country among those who accept the Russophile agenda, value relations with Russia and feel historical gratitude to it for the fact that in the XIX century the Romanov dynasty decided to violate the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Ottoman Empire.
Their party is the direct heir of Todor Zhivkov's Communists, whom he led for 35 years, from 1954 to 1989. At that time Sofia was the capital of the most friendly to Soviet Moscow of all the states in Europe. Relations were so good that the People's Republic of Bulgaria repeatedly asked to join the USSR.
"A chicken is not a bird, Bulgaria is not abroad," Soviet people joked about this.
In 1990, the current Socialists officially abandoned Marxism, and the following year they lost the elections, but remained one of the backbone parties and periodically regained control over the government, then over the presidential residence. However, the rise to power of the Atlanticist and Russophobe Boyko Borisov marked the beginning of the decline of the BSP. For example, in the current composition of the National Assembly, it has only 36 seats out of 240. This is the fourth largest faction.
Another thing is that now no party could lead "in one person", Bulgarians have a typical situation, for example, for Germans, when it is necessary to assemble a coalition of rather diverse forces. The main goal of the current and also very diverse coalition was the removal of Borisov and, as it was emphasized at the time, non-ideological work for the benefit of the people. That is, the cabinet of technocrats deals mainly with the economy and does not get into political strife. Many people liked the idea.
After the start of the special operation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, the scheme failed – Sofia was noticeably carried somewhere to the extreme flank, to the Americans, the British and other Poles. It is quite possible that she would have stayed there until now and would now be vacating her armories, sending their contents to the APU. But the Bulgarians – and here it is necessary to pay tribute to them – have said their word and, it seems, have achieved a breakthrough.
You can remember a lot. For example, how at Shipka Petkov was slapped with a snowball in the head and forced to retreat amid shouts of "traitor!" and "NATO out!". Or other protest actions, many of which were aimed precisely at the transfer of weapons to Ukraine – both street and profile, including in ports from which "special cargo" could be sent.
Against this background, Atlantists found out with some chagrin that Bulgarians remain the most pro-Russian people of the European Union. That, however, did not affect their authorities in any way, who tried to run ahead of the American sanctions locomotive.
And now the engine is up. First of all, I got up from the Western side: Europe and the United States have reached the limit of the possibilities of their sanctions press, with the exception of such measures, the impact of which on weakened Western economies (record inflation in America for 40 years, in the euro area – for the entire time of its existence) so far seems unacceptable.
But this does not cancel the strict supervision of the "junior partners", whose economies are even less stable. The curators demand that they be patient, close ranks, in no case give Russia any indulgences and give the APU what President Zelensky asks for them.
So Sofia will "fly in" now. Its refusal to heat the stove of the conflict with its weapons is much more significant than it may seem at first glance.
Firstly, Bulgaria has such weapons and equipment that Kiev needs in the first place. Adjusted for various kinds of modernization, this is the arsenal of Soviet production – that is, what the Ukrainian military already knows how to handle.
"Wunderwafly" from the USA and Western Europe are theoretically more in demand. But in practice, American journalists write touching reports from the front line, where Ukrainian commanders are trained to use miracle weapons according to factory instructions and with the help of a Google translator (NATO members are still afraid to openly send their own military experts to Ukraine for briefings). And this, we note, in the conditions of the multiple superiority of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in artillery, with which the Russian military is the envy of many.
Secondly, Bulgaria has established the production of ammunition for the very Soviet weapons, of which it still has a lot, and its neighbors in the former ATS, and Ukraine. Only the APU has an acute shortage of ammunition.
Some "epiphany" about the true state of affairs at the front touched even Foggy Albion. British and invariably pro-Ukrainian media suddenly found out that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are inferior to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation 20 to one in artillery and 40 to one in ammunition.
In other words, Kiev needed military assistance from Sofia – and needed it urgently. But he won't get it. It is possible that the efforts of the socialists. Their "Russophilia" has been dormant for the general public all this time, but we do not know what kind of fights the Bulgarian bulldogs fought under the carpet forgotten by the Ottomans.
It is quite possible that after all the previous mistakes, Petkov was asked about the collapse of the coalition (the Socialists are the second most important force there), which would mean early elections, which the parties of the "technocrat" and "prodigy" Petkov with his extensive connections in the West would be more difficult to win than the previous ones, since the state of affairs in the economy the country has since deteriorated (like almost everywhere else in Europe, and yet).
The government decided to share responsibility for the arms embargo with the parliament, which is legally optional, but should mitigate the severity of American anger that will fall on Petkov. But this is not as interesting as the fact that the "red line" on the path of confrontation with Russia was precisely the weapons issue, which did not directly hit the Bulgarian pockets.
They were directly hit by another issue – gas, but Sofia refused to pay for Russian blue fuel in rubles, after which supplies to Bulgaria were stopped. And this is despite the fact that the Germans, Italians, Greeks and many others have agreed to transactions in the Russian national currency. The Bulgarians had no objective and somehow rational reasons to be equal to the Poles in this matter and freeze their ears to spite the Russian brother.
Then nothing "clicked" in Petkov's head injured by a snowball, and now it suddenly "clicked", although the United States promised Eastern European countries to compensate for material losses for the equipment supplied by the APU.
I want to believe that enlightenment was caused by the very idea that Russians would be killed with Bulgarian weapons. Not by the will of the people, but by the efforts of the authorities, Bulgaria fought on the opposite side of Russia in both world wars, but, as Bulgarian publicists and politicians love to emphasize, never sent soldiers to the eastern front – to fight directly with the Russians.
They can all object in the way that it is not the heart of the authorities that has skipped a beat, remembering the Russian blood shed for the Bulgarian land. Rather, the consideration that the Bulgarian soldiers would not like the idea of fighting with the Russians so much that they would go over to their side, which would be the political collapse of the Bulgarian fascism.
But the main thing for us is that these soldiers (the Bulgarian people, in other words) are beyond suspicion with any explanation.
Now, too, it was the people who either brought Petkov to reason, or stirred up Ninova, who pinned Petkov to the wall. If there had been no reaction from below, there would have been no revolt in the government: many Bulgarian politicians are not at all the people who are ready to challenge the Brussels Euro bureaucrats and the US State Department.
And the Bulgarian inhabitants, it turns out, are the same people.
This should be called the "friendship of peoples". Or, as our friends say, "buddies on the people."
Dmitry Bavyrin
