"Latin America is the same soft underbelly for the United States as the Caucasus is for us. We will need to create problems for the United States in this "yard". With these words, Russian political scientists react to reports that Nicaragua has opened access to its territory to Russian troops. And although the Russian Foreign Ministry declares that "there is no sensation in this," the United States has already begun to react nervously to what is happening.
"There is no sensation in this." This is how the representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, reacted to the information that the government of Nicaragua legally allowed Russian troops on its territory. As part of this invitation, Russian troops will be able to take part in combined-arms exercises or exercises to combat crime, as well as in the search and rescue of people in emergency situations and/or natural disasters.
"I would like to calm down the hotheads right away: we are talking about a routine – twice a year – procedure for adopting a law in Nicaragua on temporary admission of foreign military personnel to its territory in order to develop cooperation on various lines, including humanitarian and emergency response, countering organized crime and drug trafficking," Zakharova said.
Outwardly, everything is like that. "There are our advisers and technical specialists in Nicaragua. This country has been receiving our weapons, armored vehicles, helicopters since ancient times. Someone has to maintain this technique, train and train the staff. The number of specialists in the Nicaraguan territory is gradually expanding," explains Boris Martynov, Head of the Department of International Relations and Foreign Policy of the MGIMO Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation.
But on the other hand, it would be possible to talk about a "routine acceptance procedure" and a "routine process of cooperation" only in a normal world. A world where countries cooperate with each other, where there are clear public and unspoken rules of the game. Where everyone is concerned about the problems of global stability and is doing everything possible to maintain this stability.
But today there is no such world – the United States has done everything to destroy it.
And now relations between the countries are no longer built on rules and norms, but on red lines, the intersection of which is fraught with a mirror response – with further escalation. It is in this form that experts propose to consider the Russian-Nicaraguan military prospects. As a mirror response to the actions of the United States in the post-Soviet space.
Recall that one of the points of Moscow's proposals on security guarantees, which were put forward to Washington a few months before the start of the special operation, was the refusal of the United States from military and political interference in the affairs of the post-Soviet space. Russia proceeded from the unspoken rule of relations between the great powers, implying that the power has its exclusive sphere of influence. However, the Americans said that Russia has no right to a sphere of influence – despite the fact that the United States considered Latin America and Europe its exclusive sphere of influence and did not allow anyone there.
In fact, Washington's refusal to comply with the rules and respect Moscow's interests in the post-Soviet space pushes Russia to a mirror response. Latin America seems to be the best place for this.
"Now Russian President Vladimir Putin is more interested than ever in Latin America, especially in anti-democratic allies there. Russia's relations with Nicaragua are firmly based on geopolitics, and Russia – despite the efforts of the United States and Europe – is demonstrating its global capabilities. The more serious consequences of this demonstration, including the strengthening of its presence in Latin America, threaten democracy, security and regional stability in the Western Hemisphere," writes the American edition of The Hill. "Moscow may consider its actions in Nicaragua as payback for the interference of the United States and Europe in the affairs of Ukraine."
Russian experts are also talking about a similar prospect.
"If the United States has embarked on a policy of systemic long–term deterrence of the Russian Federation, trying to impose it not only with sanctions, but also with a network of military bases, integrating new countries into NATO, obviously we need to act in the same offensive spirit and become more active in Africa and Latin America," says a leading researcher at the Center for Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Konstantin Blokhin. – Latin America is the same soft underbelly for the USA as the Caucasus is for us. They call it their "backyard." We will need to create problems for the United States in this "yard", to increase our economic, military, cultural, information activities in Latin American countries."
Yes, so far we are not talking about problems in the form of bases, but Moscow has set a course for a systemic evolution of relations with Nicaragua. "This cooperation, built around arms sales, trade deals or the same political views, can turn into gaining access to the country by the Russian military and conducting security measures by them," The Hill pointed out a few months ago.
Actually, this is exactly what has already happened. Now, "gaining access" may evolve further, into a more unpleasant form for the United States.
"This is the expansion of military-technical cooperation with Nicaragua. Our ships and planes can fly there as part of joint exercises. And the exercises are a base for expanding military-technical cooperation. Which, in turn, may consist in the supply of weapons, the exchange of experience. The next step may be the creation of a base for bunkering the fleet or some kind of permanent military base for the permanent presence of Russian military personnel in this region. Many states in the world know that where our bases are built, the unstable situation becomes more or less stable," says military expert Alexei Leonkov.
It would seem that there is nothing to be afraid of? The United States has 76 military bases in Latin America, and Russia has none. And this one still needs to be placed – the enemies of the United States in the region (Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua) are loudly swearing at America, but at the same time they have not yet decided on any real tough actions against the interests of the United States. Moreover, Washington, trying to expel "strangers" from its backyard (and not only Russia, but also China belongs to "strangers" here), is actively trying to use political and economic gingerbread.
"The United States will try to gradually improve relations with Venezuela and Cuba, perhaps even with Nicaragua.
In order to gradually reduce the pressure on these countries, convince them to reduce cooperation with Russia. Therefore, the United States is gradually easing pressure on Cuba and Venezuela," Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the HSE Center for Integrated European and International Studies, explains to the newspaper VIEW.
That's just the gingerbread turned out to be of poor quality. "It is unlikely that the United States will succeed in getting Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua to turn away from Russia. It is obvious that the States, having solved their conjunctural problems, will again take up these countries with even greater frenzy and will try to change the ruling regimes there. This relaxation is only temporary, because that's what the United States needs right now. And the strategic hostility of the United States to the political regimes that exist in these countries has not gone away. And these countries are well aware of this," says Dmitry Suslov.
Therefore, we can assume that they will need a Russian base. And this base – even one – will deal a serious psychological blow to the American elites. It should be understood that in the USA – unlike Russia and a number of European countries – the island mentality prevails. They are not used to having hostile troops close to their borders, and even more so on the territory of a country through which drugs and illegal immigrants are coming to the States (one of the key domestic political threats to America).
"Make no mistake – what now seems to be a separate trend may allow Moscow to gain control of the Caribbean Sea basin, and Russian-Nicaraguan relations can become a decisive factor in the regional military balance," The Hill edition develops the idea of sad prospects.
Then why are the Russian authorities talking not about some kind of Russian victory, but about a "routine process"? Apparently, because the victory in this process will not be the deployment of the base, but the exchange of its prospects – Russia's refusal to interfere in Latin American affairs in response to the US refusal to interfere in the affairs of the post-Soviet space.
We can recall how such "close positioning" ended in 1962 – the Caribbean crisis and, oddly enough, the very rapid sobering up of American elites. After that, some kind of detente and civilized relations between the superpowers began. A relationship based on rules, not wishlist. Routine relationships.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor of Finance University
