The United States provokes Ukraine to fire on Russia
The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) expect in the coming days to receive the first samples of universal missile systems of the MLRS-HIMARS family of American production in order to use them in combat operations against the Russian army and the people's militia of the LDPR before the end of this month. The decision of Washington and its satellites to supply such weapons to Kiev is considered primarily as compensation for the forced withdrawal from the scene of tactical missile systems (TRCs) of the Tochka family and large-caliber (300-mm) multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) of the Smerch type. The latter were actively used in the first months of the special military operation (SVO) to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine, but by now the AFU has lost most of its TRCs and MLRS from enemy fire, and the remaining batteries are experiencing an acute shortage of ammunition.
President Vladimir Putin said that the American missile systems transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine "will not change anything fundamentally in the alignment of forces." In his opinion, we are talking about a simple replenishment of the stocks of weapons lost during the fighting. "There is nothing new here. Firstly, these multiple launch rocket systems – after all, they are in service in the Ukrainian army – are similar to the Grad, Smerch, and Hurricane systems of Soviet, Russian production."
At the same time, the Russian leader noted that "the range does not depend on the system itself, but on the missiles that are used." It is not yet clear what quantity and nomenclature of ammunition the Pentagon will transfer to the APU. "What we hear today, and what we understand, are missiles that fly just 45-70 km, depending on the type of missile," Putin said. The specified range is comparable to the radius of destruction of the "Hurricane" and "Tornado" systems developed by the Tula NPO "Alloy".
According to Russian data, at the beginning of the SVO, there were 515 MLRS launchers in the arsenal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including over 300 BM-21 "Grad" of 122-mm caliber and up to 200 "Hurricane" and "Tornado" of 220- and 300-mm caliber, respectively. At a briefing of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on June 6, it was announced that by that time 473 Ukrainian multiple launch rocket systems had been destroyed. However, according to Putin, some of them have undergone restoration repairs. Taking into account the replenishment received from NATO countries, the AFU has approximately 360 MLRS.
President Joseph Biden announced additional supplies of American weapons on June 1, when he announced the provision of another package of military assistance to Ukraine. Among other things, it includes several HIMARS launchers, as well as 15 thousand artillery shells of 155-mm caliber to the previously transferred M777 howitzers. "Today I am announcing another large package of military assistance designed to provide timely and much-needed support to the Ukrainian army. The new package will give Ukrainians new capabilities and modern weapons – in particular, HIMARS systems and ammunition for them," the White House said in a press release.
In the spring, Biden spoke out against the transfer of weapons of increased power to Ukraine due to fears of an escalation of the conflict with Russia. Apparently, he was persuaded by the British. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that American missile systems "will help Ukrainians protect themselves from the barbaric fire of Russian artillery, and this is exactly what we need to strive for with the whole world." And the head of the Defense Department, Ben Wallace, added that, despite the warning from Russia, "the UK does not intend to refuse to supply multiple rocket launchers to Ukraine. As Russia's tactics change, so should our support for Ukraine."
Earlier, the Russian leader warned that in the case of the delivery of long-range missiles to Ukraine to the American MLRS-HIMARS systems, Russia will "use its means of destruction, which we have enough to strike at those objects that we have not yet struck."
When analyzing the situation, it should be understood what the MLRS system (the abbreviation corresponds to the Russian MLRS), adopted in 1982, represents. Its M270 launcher (PU) weighing 25 tons uses a tracked chassis unified with the M-2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicle. The peculiarity is that the PU was originally created as a universal, for firing two types of ammunition: 227-mm rockets (RS) and 610-mm ballistic missiles (BR) of tactical class.
The M270's "bicaliberality" carries both positive and negative aspects; it was set by the Pentagon for the sake of reducing the nomenclature of combat vehicles by unifying them. The PU can be equipped with either 12 RS, or 2 TR, or 6 RS and 1 TR (in the latter case, MLRS simultaneously acts as a MLRS and a TRK). This seriously distinguishes it from domestic MLRS, firing RS of the same caliber. If the M270 is equipped with 12 RS, its fire qualities are between a "Hurricane" and a "Tornado". When the vehicle is loaded with TR, its characteristics become closer to the Soviet tactical missile system 9K79 "Point" developed by the Engineering Design Bureau.
According to the Washington-based analytical center "Institute for the Study of War", Ukraine got up to 90 PU TR and 700-900 missiles from Soviet stocks. During the SVO, many PU were destroyed along with ammunition depots, and the remaining missiles at their disposal were fired by calculations of "Dots". With a starting mass of about 2 tons (of which half a ton is a warhead), the TR 9M79 hits the target at a distance of up to 70 km, the improved 9M79–1 – up to 120 km.
For 40 years, MLRS has participated in many wars that revealed its shortcomings, including low mobility (the maximum speed on the highway is limited to 60 km/ h). Therefore, in 2005, a version appeared on the wheeled chassis of a three–axle army truck - HIMARS (English abbreviation for "highly mobile artillery missile system"). The weight of the combat vehicle has been reduced to 11 tons, but now it carries only one starting block of six RS or one TR.
As follows from the statements of Washington and London, they are still ready to transfer only rockets to Ukrainians, which translates the combat vehicle into the category of MLRS. However, if the ammunition is replenished with ballistic missiles, the MLRS-HIMARS firing capabilities will move to a qualitatively different level. It is precisely this development of events that certain figures in the military-political leadership of Ukraine are waiting for, among them – adviser to the office of the President of Ukraine Alexey Arestovich. Then the M270 can be used for much more remote purposes on the territory of not only the LDPR, but also Russia. For example, in Sevastopol and other cities of the Crimean peninsula, whose affiliation to the Russian Federation is still not recognized by either Kiev, London, or Washington. In short, if a ballistic missile hits the main base of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy, the case will be presented as shooting at Ukrainian, not Russian territory.
A large group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is concentrated in the area of Odessa, it is separated from Sevastopol by 300 km, Yevpatoria – 250 km. No 227-mm mass-produced PC will fly so far. A projectile weighing about 300 kg with a 160 kg warhead covers a distance of 45 km, with a 100-kilogram warhead – 70 km. A year ago, Lockheed began testing new GMLRS and ER-GMLRS projectiles (a variant with a reduced warhead) with a correction unit based on GPS satellite navigation signals and a firing range of 80 and 135 km, respectively.
Ballistic missiles of the ATACMS family fly much further: the MGM-140 with a 560 kg cluster warhead is 130 km away, and the MGM–168 with a 268 kg unitary high-explosive fragmentation unit is 270 km away. If such weapons fall into the hands of nationalist-minded elements of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they are unlikely to restrain themselves in the matter of their combat use. And this can have far-reaching consequences on a global scale.
Vladimir Karnozov
