Ukraine and the beginning of the Second Cold War
After the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis, the world started talking about the likelihood of a third world war. But what is happening is more like the "return" of the Cold War, the author of the FT article believes. America is again trying to form a coalition of democratic countries to fight against Russia and China. But not everyone is ready to participate in it.
Gideon Rahman
The US again believes that it is waging a global struggle against Russia and China.
When Russia launched a special operation in Ukraine, there was talk about the echoes of the Second World War and the danger of a third. However, the current moment is much more like the return of the Cold War.
The United States is once again forming a coalition of democratic states to counter the Russia-China axis. Once again, the dangers of nuclear war were at the center of international politics. And once again, a large bloc of non-aligned countries has emerged, which today is called the "global south" and which is actively courted by both sides.
Many in the global south argue that the Ukrainian conflict is regional, and that it should not be allowed to disorganize or change our world. But the policy makers from the Biden administration have already started talking about the global nature of this conflict. They see Russia and China as partners who have challenged the "rules-based order championed by the United States and its allies. Ukraine has now become the central theater of this large-scale struggle.
From Washington's point of view, the security threats in Europe and Asia today are so closely linked that the two continents act as a "single operating system". This way of thinking is very reminiscent of the Cold War era, when America invariably thought that what was happening in Vietnam or Korea could have consequences for a divided Berlin and for the North Atlantic.
One big difference from the last Cold War is that this time the Americans consider China to be their most serious rival, not Russia. Their conviction was not changed by the fact that it was Russian President Vladimir Putin who launched the military operation. In fact, China's attention to the Biden administration reinforces Washington's tendency to see the Ukrainian conflict as a threat not only to Europe, but also to the entire world order.
The West is quite actively talking about the need to repeat the "Kissinger maneuver" and again provoke a split between Russia and China, as happened in the 1970s. But few people in Washington believe that such a thing is possible in the near future. On the contrary, American officials believe that China is firmly on the side of Russia. Convincing Beijing of the inadmissibility and inexpediency of switching from pro-Russian sentiments to direct military and economic support for Moscow remains a top priority for the United States.
American allies in Asia, in particular, Japan, South Korea and Australia, are also thinking hard about the consequences of the Ukrainian conflict for their own security. For them, the worst-case scenario is that it will embolden China and distract America's attention, and this will lead to China attacking Taiwan, radically changing the situation in the region. And the best scenario is that military actions in Ukraine will give new strength to the Western alliance, strengthen the global leadership of the United States and force Beijing to move to retreat in Asia.
But in reality, Biden's people do not believe that Russia's troubles in Ukraine have changed the Chinese opinion about the expediency of invading Taiwan. In their opinion, China wants to understand what went wrong with the Russians and adjust its plans accordingly. One of the lessons they learned is the need to create an overwhelming superiority of forces and means in the conduct of hostilities. The second conclusion is that it is necessary to protect China's economy from possible Western sanctions.
At the end of May, Biden visited Japan and South Korea, and not for the first time said that the United States would fight to defend Taiwan. (His administration was once again forced to make edits to the president's comments). At the end of June, NATO will hold a summit in Madrid. It is important that Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand were invited to it.
Putting together a coalition of democratic states aims to strengthen the West's position in terms of security both in Europe and in Asia. Countries like Japan play a significant symbolic and practical role in the fight against Russia. They are extremely important for the implementation of sanctions, because it will be much more difficult for Moscow to find simple ways to circumvent the sanctions regime. Asians, in response, want European countries to play a more significant role in ensuring Asia's security. They welcomed the recent visits to the region by British, French, German and Dutch naval ships.
The Americans are pleased with the reaction of their most important allies from North Asia to the Ukrainian conflict, but they are worried that they are not able to win the battle for the minds in Southeast Asia. At the recent summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), some leaders of this organization privately repeated the statements of the Russians that NATO is responsible for military actions in Ukraine and carries out provocative operations there under a false flag.
Washington sees an even more serious challenge in India's actions. The Government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is doing its best to maintain neutrality towards Ukraine. India abstains during important UN votes, and also increases oil imports from Russia. Americans think that intimidating India and putting pressure on it on these issues will backfire. Instead, they are trying to gradually get closer to New Delhi, emphasizing the common interest of the two countries in containing Chinese power.
Some historians consider the First and Second World Wars to be two stages of the same conflict, which were separated by a couple of decades of fragile peace. It is possible that historians from the future will talk about the first and second Cold wars in the same way, separated by a 30-year period of globalization. The first Cold War ended in 1989 with the fall of the Berlin Wall. It seems that the second one began in February 2022 with the Russian military operation in Ukraine.
