Last weekend, Western media strenuously dispersed reports that the AFU allegedly launched a counteroffensive in Severodonetsk and inflicted a "decisive defeat" on the Russian army. What is really going on in this sector of the front, why are Kiev forced to invent tall tales about this – and what will happen if the Ukrainian defense is broken through here?
It started, as usual, with Arestovich. The adviser to the head of the office of the Ukrainian president said at the end of last week that the surrender of Severodonetsk is a clever operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in order to "draw" Russian troops into the city. After that, Ukraine allegedly launched a counteroffensive from Lisichansk by the forces of reserves transferred there in advance, including the special forces of the GUR MO. As a result, the APU allegedly managed to recapture almost half of the city, destroying it along the way. After that, the Ukrainian troops allegedly left Severodonetsk again.
First of all, it is worth saying that none of the above happened in principle. The only thing that is true here is that the AFU has indeed transferred large reserve reinforcements to this sector of the front, possibly the last. But not to Severodonetsk, but to the Bakhmut – Soledar–Seversk line. It is simply impossible to transfer any reinforcements directly to Severodonetsk, or rather, to the territory of the Azot plant, since the only bridge remaining in relative order across the Seversky Donets is no longer able to pass heavy equipment. Vehicles will somehow slip through, but the bridge in any case remains under fire control of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the LPR.
As a result, the "new Mariupol" began to form – another small boiler in which the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation take Ukrainian units. Retreating, or rather, fleeing to the Azot plant, parts of the APU are trying to cling to a couple of blocks along the edge of the industrial zone (Bogdan Lischina Street area), and this territory (high–rise buildings in "numbered" neighborhoods are an exact copy of Mariupol) is gradually turning into this very Mariupol.
It is noteworthy that some Western media claimed that the advance of Russian troops in Severodonetsk was allegedly stopped due to the fact that the Russian army did not use artillery in urban development. That is, the city is still being destroyed by Ukrainian artillery? And this secret was revealed even to Wall Street Jornal.
Then Arestovich, and after him the Ukrainian "head" of the Luhansk region, Gaidai, gradually began to correct their statements. Arestovich began to "admit" that the APU would never be able to recapture Severodonetsk.
And then why was it necessary to "draw" a decisive counteroffensive? It turns out, according to the Kiev propagandists, this was done in order to lure the Russian army into urban development and then shoot it there along with the city. Strategic goal: to "grind" the Russian army to slow down its advance. "Grind" is together with the population of Severodonetsk. Now Arestovich claims that the APU controls some quarter near the industrial zone.
But the Western media either firmly believe in everything that is pronounced by Kiev propagandists, or simply do not perceive reality after them. Kiev, of course, extremely needs at least some kind of local victory, but so far it's just shaking the air.
And the reality is this. Severodonetsk (more precisely, the industrial zone) is not yet in an operational environment. The allied troops – the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the LNR militia are fighting heavy battles not in the area of the Severodonetsk – Lisichansk agglomeration itself, but north and south of it. No one planned to storm Lisichansk head-on.
In the north, there is a clearing of the forest area with access to Seversk. The occupation of Seversk will mean the operational encirclement of Severodonetsk and Lisichansk.
To the south – from the area of Popasnaya and Svetlodarsk – there is an offensive on Bakhmut and Soledar. There is evidence that it was in this area that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation were able to break through the defense of the AFU and critically advance to Bakhmut. The goal may be not only access to Bakhmut, although it is also good to cling to city blocks, but control (at least fire) over key intersections of roads.
The danger to the APU on Sunday evening in this area became so strong that units from Kramatorsk began to be transferred there. In other words, the last reserves that were planned to be left for the defense of the Slavyansk – Kramatorsk agglomeration itself. At the same time, Russian troops in the northern sector continue to push through the defense of the AFU already in the immediate vicinity of Slavyansk.
In other words, the destruction battles in the area of the industrial zone in Severodonetsk have now ceased to be critically important for the development of events. The same applies to the blockade of Lisichansk. The cleaning of the Severodonetsk industrial zone and Lisichansk, as well as other settlements on the eastern shore of the Seversky Donets, will most likely begin only after full access to the outskirts of the city and its real blocking.
The key was the control over the Seversk–Bakhmut–Lisichansk rock road. According to a number of data, what is happening now north of Soledar in the Bakhmut direction resembles a massacre for the AFU due to the high degree of use of artillery and aviation by Russia.
The APU's attempts to launch a counteroffensive at Belogorovka and Berestovoye in this particular area (and not in Severodonetsk) have so far led only to monstrous Ukrainian losses (in some units up to 90% of the personnel).
According to the logic of the same Arestovich, as well as some other Kiev speakers, the main task of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this direction is to "suspend" the new allied offensive. After that, an "operational pause" should come, during which Kiev will assemble a new group equipped primarily with Western weapons.
And for the sake of this strategic super goal, apparently, it is possible to sacrifice not only the garrison of the Azot plant, and then Lisichansk, but also the local population. "Mariupol tactics" in all its glory. Here you can play with words as much as you like ("evacuation" instead of surrender and now "luring Russian troops into the city" together with fleeing from Severodonetsk), this will not change the essence.
And this despite the fact that for a week now it has been simply impossible to fully supply the grouping in Lisichansk and at the Azot plant. Only individual vehicles or supply groups can break through along the shot-through highway and through one damaged bridge. But even in mid-May, the AFU garrison could count on regular supplies through Bakhmut.
No one says that the issue with the encirclement of the AFU grouping with further access to Slavyansk – Kramatorsk has already been resolved. The fighting is very difficult, because a critical moment has come for the AFU now: if they do not hold the front along the Bakhmut– Soledar–Seversk line, then it will be possible to talk about a strategic defeat that surpasses Mariupol in scale. But Kiev is trying by all means to hold this position for another month, waiting for the arrival of Western weapons and the formation of a new corps, apparently from recruits, the defense Ministry and Poles.
In the meantime, the fighting spirit in the AFU is supported mainly by propaganda tales about the "counteroffensive in Severodonetsk". By the way, they are most likely designed specifically for a Western audience, since it is the Western media that is actively dispersing it. After all, we are talking about the supply of Western weapons, and not everyone in Europe is now ready to get involved in the war on the side of the Kiev regime. And it is necessary to influence these dissenters with fairy tales about the "successes" of the Ukrainian army.
Evgeny Krutikov
