They fired a volley. How will American MLRS affect the course of the conflict in Ukraine and why are the West now afraid of escalation
The United States, Great Britain and Germany decided to arm the Kiev regime with MLRS with a firing range of up to 80 kilometers, writes Strana. At the same time, the West is aware of the consequences of possible strikes with these weapons on the territory of Russia. According to the author of the article, the supplies will not affect the overall course of the conflict, but will create serious prerequisites for the escalation of relations between Moscow and the collective West.
So, the United States will soon transfer multiple launch rocket systems to Ukraine – the most serious weapon of all that was previously supplied to Kiev from America. Judging by publications in the Western press, as well as statements by officials, the States are trying to find such a supply chain in order to help Ukraine and not unleash a global war with Russia. But whether this formula will work is still a question even for the Americans themselves. And the second question is whether Western MLRS systems, which will be supplied not only from the United States, will allow to reverse the situation at the front. The "country" analyzed the consequences of a new round of military assistance to Ukraine.
What and when will Ukraine receive
Four M142 HIMARS missile systems will be sent from America to Ukraine. The number was confirmed by US Deputy Secretary of Defense for Political Affairs Colin Kahl. It should be noted that earlier the adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine Alexey Arestovich spoke about four divisions with 18 installations in each. However, the Pentagon's website speaks of "four systems".
HIMARS stands for High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System - a highly mobile artillery missile system. It is considered highly mobile because it moves on a wheeled chassis, which increases its speed (although it reduces the payload, and the cross-country ability is lower). It can conduct, firstly, multiple rocket launchers at targets on the ground, firing six unguided missiles in one salvo. There may be several types of missiles, they strike at a distance of 45-80 kilometers.
Judging by the Pentagon's comments, these are the missiles that will be in the supply package. "Now the howitzers that we have provided them have a range of about 30 km. HIMARS has more than twice as many, which will allow them to(to Ukrainians. – Ed.) to resist even with fewer systems," said US Deputy Secretary of Defense Kahl.
Secondly, Haimars is able to shoot tactical-level ballistic missiles that fly 300-500 kilometers. But judging by the comments of Biden, who spoke yesterday about a maximum range of up to 80 kilometers, and according to quotes from the Pentagon, these missiles will not be delivered to Ukraine.
Synchronously with America, the United Kingdom decided to provide its MLRS systems. It transfers M270 installations to Ukraine – also American-made. This is the MLRS, on the basis of which "Haimars" is made. They shoot the same ammunition, so the range and accuracy of their defeat do not differ. But the M270 moves on tracks. Therefore, although it is slower, it can carry twice as many missiles - 12, and not 6, like the Haimars. Accordingly, her volley is more powerful.
The closest Russian competitor of both systems is the Smerch installation, which also hits with a volley of 12 missiles, rides on wheels and has a firing range from 40 to 120 kilometers. Missiles are used differently, depending on the targets – from cluster and fragmentation to thermobaric and guided. The deployment time for firing is 3 minutes, the departure is a minute after the volley. There are quite a few "tornadoes" in Ukraine – about 80 installations for 2021 – but, according to Arestovich, there is not enough ammunition for them. That is, American MLRS are needed not because they are an order of magnitude better, but because the West can supply ammunition for them (as in the case of howitzers).
The main difference between installations from the United States and Britain is that they are capable of carrying tactical missiles, but they are not being supplied to Ukraine yet. Otherwise, these are roughly comparable systems, and in the Russian Federation they claim that the lightweight version of the Tornado -Tornado-C is the best installation in its class, since it is very mobile with a slight loss in firepower and complete superiority in range. But this system is relatively new, there are much fewer of them in service with the Russian Federation. Although they are already deployed in Ukraine.
Now for the timing. There are no specifics on British supplies yet. According to the American ones, the complexes are already in Europe, it takes about three weeks to train personnel, the Pentagon said, and the installations can enter into battle. At the same time, of course, it may be that the systems are already in Ukraine, and the staff is trained. This cannot be ruled out, given that even before Biden's decision, installations for Ukraine were transported across the ocean. By the way, at the end of April, the Ukrainian media already stated that M270 and HIMARS were spotted on the battlefield. However, this was not confirmed by anything else.
Also, the deliveries of German MLRS have not yet been officially confirmed. But the local press is already writing about this possibility. Ukraine can transfer four installations from the reserves of the Bundeswehr, the newspaper Der Tagesspiegel reports. We are talking about the MARS II or MLRS-E systems, which is a German upgrade of the American M270. It is capable of firing at a distance of up to 84 km. It is reported that the installations may arrive in June, after the Americans have trained Ukrainians to handle them.
Will they help at the front?
In total, we have four confirmed complexes from the USA, it is unknown how many from Britain (but hardly more) and presumably four more from Germany. If we imagine that both the British and the Germans will send four installations, then Ukraine will receive 12 such systems in the near future.
Obviously, this is not a bad start, but in general it is not much. For comparison, the Armed Forces of Ukraine in recent years had 80 installations "Tornado", 70 "Hurricanes", 185 "Grads". Even if some of them were knocked out in the confrontation code, and others do not work due to breakdowns or lack of ammunition, the total share of Western supplies is still small.
However, foreign MLRS in the specified amount can help on a separate section of the front. If they are concentrated there for specific tasks – for example, a local counteroffensive. Or for the defense of a specific locality.
In general, they are unlikely to reverse the situation now – as Western howitzers, of which there are already about two hundred in Ukraine, have not been able to do so yet. Russia still surpasses Ukraine in firepower, even with military assistance from NATO. In addition, it is clear that the sent equipment can break down or be destroyed by enemy fire. And it is not yet clear how quickly these losses can be replenished. If the conflict continues, Ukraine will need many more such systems, as well as a constant and large-scale flow of ammunition for them.
However, there is another problem – the Americans' fears that the supply of such powerful weapons will bring them to the brink of a military conflict with Russia. Moreover, after the announcement of the supply of MLRS, the topic of possible escalation began to be discussed especially actively and alarmingly.
Will Russia escalate with the West?
This issue did not give rest to the United States itself, which is why supplies were so delayed. First of all, Americans are concerned that their weapons can be used by Ukraine for strikes on the territory of Russia, which, in fact, will cause an escalation and put America and the Russian Federation on the verge of a direct military conflict. Biden even wrote an entire article forThe New York Times, where it definitely stated that the complexes will not be used on the territory of Russia. And clarified: "We do not encourage or allow (enable) Ukraine to strike outside its borders."
The rationale is that the United States is not going to war with Russia. Which can consider a strike by an American weapon as an American attack on its territory (which the Russian Federation does not get tired of hinting at). The same was stated by other US officials. Blinken said that the Ukrainian authorities promised not to use MLRS for strikes on Russian territory. Zelensky also spoke in the same spirit in an interview with American journalists (although the Kremlin has already stated that they do not believe his promises).
At the same time, a journalist of the Newsmax channel, asking the Ukrainian president a question, made a reservation: any weapons from the United States can reach Russia, since the countries have a long common border. Therefore, it is unclear what Biden even meant. If we go into the field of assumptions, we can interpret it this way: American MLRS cannot be used to destroy vital objects in Russia – large cities or power plants. However, Belgorod is already in the affected area – it is about 40 kilometers from the Ukrainian positions. But this distance can also be overcome by the "Tornadoes" available in Ukraine, as well as M777 howitzers with a correctable projectile.
Moreover, periodically arrivals on the border of the Russian territory occur, which the Russian authorities accuse Ukraine of (Ukraine does not confirm the fact of shelling on its part). Therefore, after the delivery of American MLRS, the Russians can, after another such arrival, accuse Ukraine of firing from US systems and make claims directly to Washington, bringing the conflict to a new level of escalation. And preparations for such a scenario, apparently, are underway.
Yesterday, the Russian Defense Ministry said that Ukraine is allegedly preparing to deploy American MLRS in the city of Shostka, Sumy region, in order to strike at Russian territory. And Russian officials on a daily basis declare "serious consequences" if such a strike occurs.
Accusations of using American systems to attack Russian territory may be part of Russia's strategy to raise the stakes in the geopolitical confrontation with the United States. At a minimum – to prevent the supply of more powerful weapons systems to Ukraine. As a maximum – to stop the supply of heavy weapons for the needs of the Armed Forces in general, scaring the West with the threat of a direct military conflict. Against this background, Western media are increasingly saying that the threat of escalation is becoming more and more real.
Here's how The New York Times puts the two main risks:
- Yes, the United States has stated that no strikes will be carried out on the territory of Russia. But there are territories in Ukraine that Moscow considers its own (Crimea) or has legally recognized (Donbass). It is unclear what will happen if Ukraine starts striking deep into these territories with new weapons. In theory, this could cause an escalation. However, if the United States keeps its promise not to supply long-range missiles, then the current systems will not reach the Crimea (their range is 70-80 km).
- The "moment of truth" may be the next massive rocket attack on the territory of Ukraine by Russia. The publication believes that after it it will become clear whether Kiev will be able to resist and not strike back at the territory of the Russian Federation.
The mood of the military columnist Frank Gardner is even more alarming. He writes that after the start of the delivery of MLRS, Ukraine will receive the most powerful ground combat weapons of all that Kiev has used so far, and this may lead to an escalation of the conflict. He recalls that initially Washington was afraid to send heavy weapons to Ukraine in order not to provoke Moscow once again.
"Ukraine has already promised Washington that it will not use the received systems to hit targets on the territory of Russia. However, the Kremlin reacted angrily and sharply: Moscow announced a series of strategic nuclear exercises in the Moscow region, designed to remind the West what is at stake," Gardner writes.
Apparently, fears of escalation explain the rather modest number of MLRS installations. There simply won't be enough of them to send to secondary sites, such as the border with Russia in Sumy or Chernihiv regions. Since all these complexes will be needed in the Donbass, where the battles for Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Avdiivka are coming.
