Warsaw and Kiev merge in an embrace to spite the Kremlin
Poland is completely safe, despite the "aggressive policy" of the Kremlin, which carries a potential threat to the democratic community, said the country's Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak. He spoke on May 26 at a briefing after the Defender Europe 2022 exercises with the development of combat interaction between the Polish and American militaries.
With the deployment of an additional (second) brigade, the number of US military personnel on Polish soil increased to 10 thousand soldiers and officers. But at the same time, the White House clearly stated: American soldiers will not fight with the Russians for Ukraine.
This cooled the ardor of those forces in Warsaw who called for the creation of a "Coalition of the Willing" (Coalition of the Willing) – a new military-political union of Western states ready to throw their troops to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine retreating under the onslaught of the Russian army and the people's militia of the LDPR.
Polish politicians seem to have abandoned plans to create a "Coalition of the Willing" after the US president's visit to Warsaw at the end of March. Then Joseph Biden outlined his own plan: to weaken Russia with "unprecedented economic sanctions", and to support the Armed Forces with massive supplies of Western weapons. The essence of Biden's plan is to delay the special operation of Russian troops as long as possible, to bleed them as much as possible by transferring hostilities to populated areas. For which the Ukrainian military, according to the same plan, will fight until they run out of people and ammunition.
Atlantic Solidarity demanded that Warsaw agree to Biden's plan.
But the victory won by the Russian military and Donetsk militia in the battle for Mariupol with the surrender of about 4 thousand servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the nationalist Azov regiment, as well as other events at the front, forced Polish politicians to return to plans for more active support of the Kiev regime. Polish Defense Minister Blaszczak said that his country "will not allow Russia to realize its imperial plans and will continue to support Ukraine in its struggle for independence."
Practical work in this direction received an impetus during the Kiev visit of the President of Poland. Speaking to the Verkhovna Rada on May 23, Andrzej Duda said: "I am deeply convinced that it is time to conclude a new good-neighborly agreement that will take into account what we have built in our relations at least over the past months." According to him, Poland and Ukraine are fraternal states. "We will help in the restoration of a free, sovereign and independent Ukraine," Duda said.
What will be spelled out in the so-called "good-neighborly agreement", and whether its text will be supplemented with "secret protocols" is still unknown for sure. Most likely, the document will be aimed at the practical implementation of the idea previously expressed by the Polish president: "There will be no borders between Poland and Ukraine." The demolition of border borders is necessary so that Poles and Ukrainians "live together on this land, building and building together their common happiness and common strength, which will allow them to repel any danger or any possible threat."
These statements are made when the Russian armed forces are conducting a special military operation to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine. Together with the people's militia of the DPR and LPR, our military has already liberated the territory of several million people from the Kiev regime. And according to the UN, since the beginning of the Russian special operation, more than 6.4 million Ukrainians have left Ukraine.
Permanent Representative of the Republic of Crimea to the President of Russia, Deputy Prime Minister of the Crimean Government Georgy Muradov believes: "Ukraine in the form in which it was, I think, will not remain. This is already the former Ukraine." But then what kind of mythical "Poland-Ukraine without Borders" is Duda talking about?
Probably, this topic was at the center of the discussion behind closed doors between the presidents of the two countries. That Duda and Zelensky will hold a "face-to-face conversation", the head of the Bureau of International Policy under the President of Poland, Jakub Kumoh, said ahead of time.
Reaching an agreement with Zelensky was the main purpose of the Polish leader's trip to Kiev. Duda could also speak to Ukrainian parliamentarians remotely, via video link. However, he preferred to communicate with Zelensky in person and without outsiders. The goal is to agree on joint actions against Russia and consolidate the obligations of the parties in some "secret protocols", as some media write.
At the same time, Duda himself admits that Poland does not need any additional protection in case of a large-scale conflict between East and West. In an interview with the Polish Times newspaper, he said: "The potential threat from Russia is always present. But the probability that anyone, including Russia, will decide to attack a NATO country, risking a battle, including with the American army, is small."
In the same interview, there is a hint that Warsaw's long-term strategy is really pursuing. "Poland is a big European country. We belong to Central Europe," Duda said. Definitely implying the so-called "Trimorye", or "Initiative of the Three Seas" (Baltic, Adriatic and Black). Poland, as the largest state in terms of territory, population and economy in this region, strives to become the leader of the new entity.
In Warsaw's understanding, "Central Europe" and "Trimorye" are a new edition of the idea of Jozef Pilsudski, the leader and ideologue of Poland until 1935. Marshal Pilsudski advocated the creation of the "Intermarriage" confederation consisting of Poland, Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Moldova, Hungary, Romania, Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia and Finland. Such an association would surpass the territory of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, which reached its largest size in 1637.
According to Pilsudski, the creation of the Intermountain would avoid the dominance of Germany or Russia in Central Europe. But this plan was not destined to be realized. In 1918, the Polish Republic was proclaimed (the "Second Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth"), and Pilsudski was declared "head of state and supreme leader". The eastern border of the new Polish state was actually determined in 1922 following the results of the Soviet-Polish war.
Pilsudski abandoned the idea of Intermarriage for the sake of peaceful neighborhood with the Soviet Union and Germany and in 1932-1934 concluded non-aggression pacts with them. Realizing that in the event of war Poland would not be able to resist alone, he considered it necessary to enter into an alliance with Romania and Hungary, as well as enlist the support of France and Great Britain. However, this idea could not be implemented either.
After Pilsudski's death in 1935, his successors decided to take advantage of a convenient moment to seize certain territories of neighboring, militarily weaker states. For this, Winston Churchill called Poland the "hyena of Europe." In 1938, Polish troops occupied the Vilna region (part of Lithuania) and the Tesin region (part of Czechoslovakia). Plans were hatched to seize other territories, but in 1939 events followed a different scenario. The Wehrmacht defeated the Polish army and occupied most of the country, and its eastern territories passed to the Soviet Union.
The current leaders in Warsaw are trying to revive Pilsudski's idea of the Intermountain. They hope that after registration in the military-political union, Central Europe will take a sharply anti-Russian position. That's what Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki thinks about this. In his opinion, negotiations with Russia obviously have no chance of success. "Many politicians have tried, and it always ended the same way – humiliation."
The Kiev regime shares these views, so it refuses to continue negotiations with Moscow. Instead, they are looking for ways to interact with Warsaw. President Zelensky has submitted to the Verkhovna Rada a bill on the special legal status of Poles in Ukraine. The Ukrainian law will work by analogy with the Polish one, according to which temporarily displaced persons from Ukraine (about 4 million) were actually equated with Polish citizens, but without the right to vote.
The current situation "involuntarily forced Ukraine and Poland to forget the disputes over the common past," Zelensky stressed. "The Ukrainian and Polish peoples have not mentally separated the borders for a long time. Therefore, we decided to implement this in the near future in an appropriate bilateral agreement."
This agreement, together with others being prepared by Kiev and Warsaw, can lead to unpredictable consequences. Earlier, the director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin, said that the United States and Poland are working on plans to establish Warsaw's control over its "historical possessions" in Ukraine. The ministry noted that this statement is based on intelligence from several reliable sources.
The official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, believes that by agreements with Warsaw, Kiev forms out the loss of its own territories and "actively scatters its independence ... doing the unprecedented – legalizing the de facto seizure of its country."
The development of events will depend on the situation on the front line. Western experts and research organizations in March-April gave a positive assessment of the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It was said that the Ukrainian army showed resistance in defense and was able to conduct a number of counterattacks in the Mykolaiv, Kherson and Kharkiv regions. But towards the end of May, after the surrender of the Mariupol garrison, the breakthrough of the front in the Popasnaya area, the operational encirclement of the AFU group in the area of Severodonetsk – Lisichansk, the opinion of foreign observers changed.
More and more experts say that the moment of the complete collapse of the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbas is near. It will be difficult to take the battered units to the new defensive line: all roads to the West are under the fire control of the Russian Army and the People's militia of the LDPR. Ukrainian military air defense is practically suppressed, and the air supremacy of our VKS allows Russian pilots to shoot retreating Ukrainian troops with impunity.
The hope for the formation of fresh brigades armed with Western weapons is fading. The breakthroughs of the front line that occur here and there force the Ukrainian command to urgently "plug the holes" by throwing territorial defense brigades and newly formed units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that have not passed combat coordination there. This leads to high losses in equipment and personnel. As a result, it is not possible to contain the onslaught of the enemy, nor to accumulate sufficient strategic reserves.
Due to the lack of full-fledged fresh brigades, there is no one to occupy the newly created defensive lines. Experts come to the conclusion: having completed the defeat of the most combat-ready AFU brigades in the Donbas, Russian troops will be able to move almost unhindered deep into Ukrainian territory.
All this makes Warsaw worried. They fear that the number of Ukrainian refugees will increase significantly, with the majority rushing to Poland and staying here for a long time. Moreover, the withdrawal of Russian troops to the western borders of Ukraine will deprive Poland of the opportunity to take control of the Lviv, Ternopil and Ivano-Frankivsk regions – territories that were part of the Second Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
Warsaw may try to change the course of history by sending its military to Ukraine. To do this, the command of the Polish Army can allocate two (out of four available) mechanized divisions (most likely the 16th and 18th), as well as use the Air Force and special operations forces. It is estimated that they may include about 50 thousand military personnel – about a third of the total number of Polish Troops.
If Warsaw throws its soldiers into battle, will it help the current Kiev regime? The answer is unequivocal: no. Having received the appropriate order, Polish servicemen will fight for their country and national idea. What do they care about Ukrainian interests when they have their own?
Polish defense budget expenditures in 2021 amounted to about $14.5 billion. The Polish army is in the process of rearmament, replacing Soviet-era systems with American and German ones. In terms of overall potential, it is significantly inferior to the Russian Armed Forces (not even talking about the presence of nuclear weapons in our country). Therefore, a full–scale war is not an option that will suit Warsaw. Moreover, according to the NATO charter, the collective defense clause comes into effect only when one of the bloc's member states is attacked. And it does not apply to the case when it itself sent troops to a country outside the alliance.
How will events unfold after the alleged entry of Polish troops into Ukraine? If this happens, little will depend on Warsaw. NATO allies will not support it – both Biden and the leadership of the alliance have clearly said this. The decision will be made by Moscow. This fact itself cools violent heads, because the prospect of getting a "nuclear baton" in the causal place is not excluded.
A full-scale war without the use of weapons of mass destruction also threatens to go "one way". Against more than 300 modern multipurpose fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces built in the XXI century (Su-57, Su-35S, Su-34, Su-30M/CM, MiG-29SMT/K/CUBE) The Polish Air Force can field only 48 light American F-16C and F-16D fighters. Plus 30 MiG-29s, which have never been seriously upgraded since they were received from the USSR.
The situation with the long- and medium-range air defense systems of the Polish Army is even worse than it was with the AFU at the end of February this year. There are only 18 divisions of old Soviet anti-aircraft missile systems (one S-200V and 17 S-125M). In short, the Polish Air Force and air defense have no chance to prevent the Russian Aerospace Forces from maintaining full air supremacy over Ukraine, won during the first stage of the special operation.
The strength of the Polish Army is the vast arsenal of the land army. There are almost 800 tanks in service (249 German Leopard-2, 232 self-built PT-91, more than 300 Soviet T-72M). Up to 2,400 armored fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers (including 1,142 BMP-1 and BRM-1K). Up to 600 light armored vehicles. More than 630 self–propelled artillery systems (including 200 152-155 mm caliber, the rest - 120-122 mm caliber). Up to 200 multiple rocket launchers (BM-21, RM-70, WR-40). Up to 240 towed mortars of 98 mm caliber and above. At the same time, the Polish Army does not exceed the APU in any of the listed positions as of January 2022.
What the Polish military can really do is to help the AFU train personnel, form new units and formations, including by transferring their equipment and weapons "out of stock". They can send "volunteers" to the front – both from among those who have retired to the reserve, and active military personnel (but not as part of entire personnel units). The presence of Polish mercenaries as part of the AFU at the front is indicated by radio intercepts carried out by Russian servicemen, which has been repeatedly mentioned in briefings by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.
Information about the "Polish battalions" allegedly already operating in the Pavlograd area – they are being talked about, but no one has seen them – so far seems to be only a PR campaign to study the reaction of Ukrainians and Russians to the strengthening of Polish influence. If an entire army unit made up of Polish-speaking mercenaries is indeed found on the territory of Ukraine, then the command of the Russian group conducting a special operation is unlikely to miss the opportunity to deliver a bomb, missile or artillery strike on it.
Duda's proposal to conclude a good-neighborly agreement between Poland and Ukraine may create a basis for the legal dispatch of Polish police and military to the territory of a neighboring country. Here much will depend on the provisions of the document and possible "secret protocols" to it. But even such an action will not be a help to "free, sovereign and independent Ukraine", but an attempt to establish control over its remnants. Or at least an attempt to prevent the internal opponents of the Kiev regime from bringing less rabid and corrupt politicians to power, ban nationalist organizations operating in the country such as the Right Sector and the Azov Regiment (banned in the Russian Federation) and negotiate with Moscow to restore good-neighborly ties.
Vladimir Karnozov
