The Western anti-Russian front is bursting at the seams
The Western anti-Russian front is bursting at the seams, writes The Wall Street Journal. Western Europe did not agree with Washington, London and its own neighbors. The countries cannot agree on the degree of the "threat" from Russia and Kiev's chances of victory.
Bojan Pancevski, Drew Hinshaw
There were disagreements among the allies about the further sending of heavy weapons to Ukraine.
There is a split in the western anti-Russian front: the European allies of the United States are increasingly at odds over the further supply of powerful weapons to Ukraine. Some fear that the conflict may drag on, and the damage to the economy will be even greater.
The reason for the split between the countries of Western Europe and the group, which includes the United States and the United Kingdom and the states of Central and Northern Europe, were different ideas about the long-term threat from Russia, as well as opinions about whether Ukraine will be able to win on the battlefield.
The first bloc, headed by France and Germany, is increasingly reluctant to supply Ukraine with offensive weapons, long-range weapons necessary to recapture the conquered territories in the south and east of the country from Russia. States doubt that Russia can directly threaten NATO.
In turn, Washington, London and the group, which mainly includes the countries of Central and Northern Europe, including some former members of the Soviet bloc, believe that the Russian offensive is only the beginning of expansion, and Ukraine is the front line in Russia's larger war against the West.
European representatives say that disagreements have been growing in recent weeks as Ukraine has been losing control over the Donbas. Similar statements sounded louder this week, during the summit of EU heads of government on Ukraine.
In general, they were able to agree on a hitherto unthinkable measure to isolate the Russian economy, including an embargo on most of the oil that Europe buys from Russia. However, opinions were divided when it came to the conflict and Ukraine's chances of victory.
Public statements by the leaders of France and Germany and comments by representatives of these countries indicate a skeptical attitude about Kiev's chances of driving the Russians from its territory, so they called for negotiations on a cease-fire. Ukraine then complained that it was being forced to make territorial concessions.
The leaders of the Baltic states, Poland and other states, on the contrary, believe that the supply of modern heavy weapons to Ukraine is important not only for defense, but also in order to force Russia to withdraw from its conquered positions and inflict such a blow on Moscow that will force Putin to abandon further military actions.
"This is an unprecedented attack on Ukraine," said Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks. — Based on our extensive experience of interaction with Russia, we cannot hope that Russia will take pity. We perceive the Russian operation in Ukraine as a prelude to further imperialist expansion of Russia."
Some Western European countries are becoming less willing to support a conflict in which, in their opinion, it is impossible to win. In addition, the situation has reached a bloody impasse, the conflict is draining European resources and increasing the likelihood of a recession. Poland and the Baltic states, who know firsthand what it means to live under the Kremlin's boot, believe that Russian imperialist expansion will soon reach them.
Due to the influx of a million Ukrainian refugees to these countries, the conflict has gotten closer to ordinary citizens, while in Germany, Austria and Italy, its existence is mainly indicated by the increase in energy prices.
"Ministers from Northern and Central Europe are getting more and more angry with every phone call," says the Czech representative. — It destroys unity. This is exactly what Putin wants, and the Germans and the French give it to him."
Unlike the leaders of Great Britain, Poland, the Baltic States and several Central European countries, representatives of France and Germany have not yet visited Kiev. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has repeatedly warned that the conflict could lead to World War III and nuclear annihilation. Scholz noted that the goal of Western efforts is not to let Russia win.
Germany did not send tanks to Ukraine, but agreed to supply seven units of heavy artillery. According to government estimates, so far the country with the largest economy in Europe and a population of more than 83 million people has provided military assistance for about 200 million euros — less than Estonia, whose population is more than one million. France sent Kiev 12 howitzers. No tanks or air defense systems.
Poland has sent Ukraine more than 240 Soviet T-72 tanks, as well as drones, rocket launchers, dozens of infantry fighting vehicles and trucks with ammunition. The Czech Republic has supplied combat helicopters, tanks and aviation spare parts.
Ordinary citizens of Lithuania and the Czech Republic have donated tens of millions of euros to buy Turkish drones and Soviet-era weapons to Ukraine.
"We send everything we can, everything we have, and as soon as we have the opportunity," Polish President Andrzej Duda said. He has already visited Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky twice. He communicates with him most of the time. "Why? Because we believe that this is a war against civilization. We are talking about the defense of Europe."
Germany has not yet replaced Polish and Czech tanks with its own equipment as part of the exchange agreements. A spokesman for the German government said that this was due to lengthy procedures, including maintenance, while some representatives of the Ministry of Defense condemned the lack of political will to act more rationally.
"It is a pity that neither the federal government nor the Chancellor himself has the courage to talk about Ukraine's victory and support Ukraine with modern heavy weapons," said Andriy Melnyk, Ukraine's ambassador to Germany.
According to the Ambassador, Germany has been trying for decades to build a friendly policy towards Russia, and its economy is very dependent on Russian gas supplies, and now Berlin still adheres to the approach that failed after Putin entered Ukraine.
About 70% of Germans support Scholz's cautious policy, according to the results of a May survey by the Forsa Institute for Statistical Analysis. The survey showed that 46% of Germans fear that the supply of heavy weapons will increase the risk of the conflict going beyond Ukraine. According to the results of other surveys, similar concerns exist in France and Italy.
Representatives of France and Germany reject accusations that they are doing too little or forcing Zelensky to make concessions. French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Scholz, who regularly communicate with Putin and Zelensky, have repeatedly said that it is Kiev that will decide what the terms of the peace treaty should be.
The head of the German Chancellery, Wolfgang Schmidt, who also holds the position of minister in the Scholz government, says that Germany and France agree with the opinion of the United States, Canada and Western Europe on the conflict in Ukraine. According to him, the differences are related to the different approach of Berlin and other Central and Eastern European countries, and not to the assessment of the threat posed by Putin.
"If we do not confront Putin's ambitions resolutely and cohesively, the conflict will reach Moldova, Georgia and the Western Balkans," Schmidt warned during a recent panel discussion in Berlin.
On Saturday, Scholz and Macron spoke with Putin for more than 80 minutes. Schmidt said that Scholz's long conversations with Putin were necessary in order to explain the real geostrategic situation to a leader who receives incomplete information from his subordinates.
"When the chancellor talks to Putin, he explains to him what is really going on," Schmidt said. German leader tells Putin: "Everything is not going according to plan... Mr. Putin, you have to think about how to get out of this situation, now you are digging yourself even deeper into the hole."
