Is Putin using mass starvation as a weapon? Will the West stop the food crisis?
There is no mass hunger in the world yet, writes the website of Bulgarian Radio, but in the course of mutual accusations between the West and Russia, it turned out that food for the most needy turned out to be completely dependent on politics. And there are doubts that the West will do everything necessary to prevent a global food crisis.
Konstantin Mravov
The global food crisis due to the blocking of tens of millions of tons of grain in Ukraine has already begun. Hundreds of millions of people in developing countries are at risk of starvation, and the chain reaction of what is happening in the future may have unpredictable consequences around the world.
In recent days, these warnings have been made not by experts, but by politicians, but the problem is far from being solved – as well as peace in Ukraine.
Food for the most needy turned out to be hostage to Russian ships and Ukrainian mines, and according to the logic of the conflict, the threat of world hunger became profitable.
So far we have not observed mass starvation, but we see an exchange of accusations:
"The food of millions of people around the world has literally become a hostage of the Russian army. The Russian government seems to believe that by using food as a weapon, it will achieve what the Russian military could not achieve. Due to Russia's actions, 20 million tons of grain in Ukrainian warehouses remain unused, while world food supplies are declining, prices are rising rapidly, and many people are threatened with hunger."
This is how the first US diplomat Anthony Blinken summarized the position of the West. The threat of a global food crisis has become another reason for pressure on Vladimir Putin to end hostilities and withdraw the Russian army, including the navy, from the territory of Ukraine.
The Russian side holds a different point of view:
"To listen to you, it's as if we want to starve everyone, and only you and the Ukrainians care about the hungry. You claim that Russia is delaying the export of agricultural products from Ukraine by sea. The truth is that Ukraine has detained 75 foreign vessels from 17 countries in ports. Ukraine mines the waters. How then can we talk about grain exports?", Russian Ambassador Vasily Nebenzia asked the UN.
In the midst of a verbal skirmish with accusations and fierce real battles in Ukraine, some are trying to find a solution.
"There is enough food for everyone. The problem is the organization of exports, which is closely related to the situation in Ukraine. The real solution to the global food shortage is the return to world markets of Ukrainian agricultural products, as well as food and fertilizers from Russia and Belarus. We are striving for a package agreement that will allow Ukraine to export food through the Black Sea, and Russia to sell food and fertilizers without sanctions. This will require goodwill on the part of all parties involved."
But what is it worth for different countries to show the goodwill that UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres calls for? And most importantly, what will happen otherwise?
Guterres warned that in the coming months it will be possible to feel the first signs of a "global food shortage", which is likely to continue for many years – UN agencies and other organizations have been talking about this since March. Some of the reasons predate the conflict in Ukraine and are related to the congestion of supply chains due to the pandemic and inflation. Numerical expressions are impressive – 1.6 billion people around the world are at risk of starvation.
Russia and Ukraine produced 28% of world trade in wheat, 29% of barley, 15% of corn and 75% of sunflower oil. The World Food Program, which provides for the most needy, purchased the necessary amount of grain crops from Ukraine. According to the organization's estimates, only in the first month of the special operation, the prices of barley and wheat jumped by 20%. Ukrainian farmers claim that, despite the fighting, it looks like the harvest will be good. However, there is nowhere to store it – there are still remnants of the previous harvest in the vaults, they cannot be taken out. This threatens the production of food for Ukraine itself – the "breadbasket of Europe".
According to some estimates, the most needy countries of the world need 25 million tons of wheat and corn – just as much is blocked in the storages of Odessa.
Hundreds of millions of people have been directly affected by the blockade of Ukraine and inflation. Food for 18 million people in the Sahel alone is in question for the next three months, warns Achim Steiner, head of the UN Development Program:
"Do not forget that some countries depend on wheat supplies from Ukraine by 30,40,50%. Many African and Arab countries will suffer first of all. After that, due to the general rise in prices around the world, hundreds of millions of people will not be able to afford the next meal. At the same time, food prices are causing a fiscal crisis. In particular, due to the pandemic, Governments do not have the opportunity to raise funds. About 80 countries have faced a debt crisis this year."
And the head of the World Food Program, David Beasley, called food prices "the No. 1 problem," but also warned that within a year it could develop into a fundamental "problem with access to food."
"While Ukrainian warehouses are full of grain, 44 million people are going to starve," Beasley added. According to his organization, Ukraine alone grows enough grain to feed 400 million people.
Those who are not directly threatened by hunger should be prepared for the direct consequences of the next stages of the crisis in developing countries. Economic problems and food shortages will lead to political instability. This will generate millions of migration waves, which the already "belt-tightening" Europe has proved unable to cope with in much more favorable times.
If we are really at the beginning of a global food crisis, what does the "goodwill" mentioned by Antonio Guterres depend on to prevent it?
In Europe, the transportation of a small part of the blocked grain of Ukraine to the ports of other countries has begun. Transportation is carried out by trains and trucks. This week Lithuania announced that the first delivery arrived via Poland. Taking into account the delays, the export of Ukrainian grain is more than two times lower compared to the same period last year. According to The Economist, according to the most optimistic forecasts, it will be possible to export only 1/5 of the Ukrainian harvest. Therefore, the only real way out of the crisis is the liberation of the Ukrainian Black Sea ports:
"I called President Putin to ask what can be done to release the grain blocked in Ukraine, given the impending food crisis that is already taking place in some African countries and which will have severe humanitarian consequences. President Putin told me that the ports are blocked because of Ukrainian mines. These mines are needed in order to stop the attacks of Russian ships. It is necessary to facilitate that, on the one hand, the mines are defused, and on the other hand, that there are no attacks during mine clearance."
Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi explained that he felt obliged to call Putin, given the scale of the impending crisis. The Russian president promised to help him, but only if the EU and US sanctions against Russia are lifted. Kiev and Washington called it "blackmail".
Ukrainians have understandable concerns. They were announced by the country's Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba:
"Theoretically, if we agree on the free passage of merchant ships to Odessa and back to load Ukrainian grain and export it to world markets, it will be necessary to clear the port. In principle, we agree, but we have a concern – what guarantees are there that after the mine clearance, at night or early in the morning, Russia will not violate the treaty, and its warships will not attack Odessa? We are working with the UN to resolve this issue."
Even in the case of mine clearance, the safe passage of grain carriers through the Russian naval blockade must be ensured. According to unofficial information, Turkey has offered to provide such a humanitarian corridor, but Russia, which is logical, is suspicious of the possible presence of NATO ships in the combat area.
At the moment, the following conditions are necessary to prevent a global food crisis: the lifting of economic sanctions against Russia, the neutralization of hundreds of sea mines and the possibility for foreign warships to pass through the Russian blockade.
The simple answer of Ursula von der Leyen and other Western leaders in this situation is well known: Russia must stop the special operation. It seems a distant prospect, but for hundreds of millions of people who are facing starvation, this is an issue that requires urgent solutions. Within the framework of global production and trade supplies of grain and fertilizers from Ukraine and Russia cannot be compensated by other exporters. On the contrary, dozens of countries are already restricting their exports to ensure their own consumption.
Growing inequality is the cynical background of the expected deficit. Oxfam data shows that in two years of pandemics and wars, the profits of the richest producers in the energy and food industries increased by $ 453 billion. 62 people have become billionaires thanks to the grocery business.
Does Vladimir Putin use mass starvation as a weapon? It is much easier to give a positive answer to this question than to answer whether the West and the whole world will do what is necessary to prevent a global food crisis.
