Will Ukraine be able to win the war, despite the superiority of the Russian army?
Russian troops have learned lessons from the failures of the first weeks of the campaign, the French "Figaro" states the fact. Now they are focused on the Donbass and are moving slowly but surely. Zelensky will not be able to get them out of themselves and provoke them to cruelty to the local population.
Highly motivated, fighting for the survival of its entire nation, the Ukrainian army defied all forecasts. For three months of military operations, she stopped the offensive of the Russian army in the Kiev and Kharkov directions. However, she found herself in a critical situation in the Donbass.
"Wars are unpredictable, and no one can say exactly when and how this war will end" — it was clear that NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who said these words on Thursday, out of cowardice chooses words with the greatest care. He has reasons to be cowardly: first, Western analysts predicted a quick victory for one side [Russian], then they just as decisively promised success to the other [Ukrainian]. Now, military observers are hiding behind the phrase "the outcome of the conflict is considered uncertain."
Nevertheless, these analysts summed up the first results of the fighting. On February 24, it seemed that the "Russian steamroller" was unstoppable. (This is how the Russian army was called in France during the First World War at the time of the offensive — in August 1914, it was this "steamroller" that saved Paris from the Germans. Approx. InoSMI.) Everyone agreed that the famous Russian army did not seem to leave any hope for the Ukrainian troops. But the scheme of the duel between the good little David and the big evil Goliath turned out to be simplistic: in fact, the fight turned out to be more complicated and "more equal" than it seemed at the beginning. Dreams of a "blitzkrieg" turned out to be an illusion — on the one hand, and on the other, observers from the French army believe so.
Vladimir Putin's troops made many mistakes, but then the President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, made his mistake by believing that it was possible to retake the occupied territories with the support of international military assistance. His entourage began to say that Ukraine could supposedly win even with the split of the West. That is, in a situation where the West cannot come to a consensus on what it wants: defeat, weakening or even humiliation of Vladimir Putin. And if the West even agrees on some kind of defeat-humiliation of its enemy, then then different forces in the West will still argue what form of this Russian defeat-humiliation will suit them.
History shows that in order for one side to honestly declare victory, the other must accept defeat, voluntarily or under duress. The current situation is far from that. Thus, the initial plans for the blitzkrieg were postponed in both capitals, and other scenarios began to be developed in the headquarters.
Can Russia still achieve its goals?
Over the period since February 24, Moscow has revised its tasks for the short term — and in the direction of more modest goals. There is no longer a question of taking Kiev right away. The predictions of Western analysts about the rapid establishment of a puppet government of Ukraine or even a return to the former Soviet Union in the zone of influence of Russia turned out to be wrong.
Not everything worked out. But does this mean that Putin has abandoned the idea of "denazification" of Ukraine? No. For him, the conflict is not limited to the territorial issue. Otherwise, Russia could be satisfied with the territorial corridor between Crimea and "mainland" Russia, which the Russians have already received. They got it by achieving the surrender of the last resistance fighters in Mariupol.
"Vladimir Putin wants to oust the United States from Europe and break up NATO," says Dmitry Minich, a specialist on Russia at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). "He will resolutely pursue his goals," he believes. Against the background of this threat, NATO has begun to strengthen its defensive positions. Without abandoning his long-term ambitious intentions, the Russian president must act taking into account the real situation in order to avoid defeat. The Russian offensive is now concentrated in the Donbas around Severodonetsk and Lisichansk, which is a priority task for the coming days or weeks. "The Russians are advancing slowly but surely," a French military source notes. They have learned from their initial failures, now they are better coordinating their operations. The advance of the Russians is frightening in its speed: before the war, there were 200,000 inhabitants in Severodonetsk and Lisichansk, half as many as in Mariupol, which fell in just three months. It is worth fearing that the Russians will take Severodonetsk and Lisichansk faster than Mariupol. But after that, the Russian army will be able to attack Ukrainian positions in Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.
The struggle is for symbolic rather than tactical gains, even if this symbolism is limited geographically. Having mastered the entire territory of the Donetsk region, Vladimir Putin will be able to declare his second success after the capture of Mariupol. "After Kramatorsk is taken and the Ukrainians leave their defensive lines, the Russian army will be able to declare its victory. But then the troops will urgently need an operational pause," Dmitry Minich assures. Both armies are exhausted, according to some Western estimates, at least 15,000 people died on each side. The number of wounded is even greater. Military units urgently need to replenish their ranks. So in the coming weeks, the Russians and Ukrainians will try to "straighten" the front lines in their favor.
How is the Russian operation in Donbass going?
— A "decisive battle" is being played out in the Donbass, according to Joseph Enrotin, a specialist on military issues at DSI magazine. Artillery is being seriously used here. "The ratio of forces is 1:2," this military source believes: two Russian combined forces numbering from 20 to 30 thousand soldiers in each are opposed by five to seven Ukrainian brigades, the number of which is approximately 25 thousand people. At first glance, the ratio is not very good for the Russian side, because according to military theory, an attacker should have a 3:1 advantage in order to attack in good conditions.
Supporters of the Ukrainian victory point out that Ukrainians can also defend themselves behind the lines of defense that they themselves have been building for several years. In addition to the covered trenches, they have built concrete bunkers, some of which have "blast doors," according to the French military. These lines will be difficult to attack. "Artillery violates coherence on the Ukrainian line of defense," he continues. Russian troops operate in two directions, relying on the railway network, which provides them with logistical supplies. To the north, advancing from the Raisins, they concentrate their attacks around the Red Estuary. But Russians may have difficulties crossing the Donets River. They have already been defeated at Belogorovka, however, revealing at the same time the weaknesses of the Ukrainian army. "All rivers are an opportunity to strengthen the defense," a military source notes. Ukrainians also mined the adjacent territory. The other direction runs along the southern outskirts of the village of Popasnaya, where Russian troops are slowly but advancing.
A War of attrition
Each side is counting on a "war of attrition": this is the tactic of "gradually weakening the enemy by imposing losses on him and preventing the delivery of reinforcements to him. The ideal result is surrender. "Russians and Ukrainians use artillery in different ways," explains the French military. In particular, with its BM21S, "the Russian army uses its artillery as massive fire support to saturate the zone of operations," the European continues. The main task is to "cause panic", destroy the enemy's positions before he can start advancing armored vehicles. The firing range of the BM21 with standard ammunition is on average about twenty kilometers. On the Ukrainian side, artillery pieces are isolated from each other and hidden in anticipation of the opportunity to open fire. And now they will shoot anywhere.
The use of artillery is often combined with the use of a drone to detect a target. After firing, the artillery piece moves so as not to receive a retaliatory strike. The firing range of M777 howitzers supplied by the US Army is 30 or 40 km if the howitzers are equipped with Excalibur ammunition. The French Caesar self-propelled guns allow you to increase the firing range by several more kilometers. The Ukrainian resistance depends on the supply of these weapons by the West. France, for example, provided a dozen Caesar self—propelled artillery units, and the United States provided 80 M777 howitzers out of 108 promised.
Ukrainian Arsenal
Initially, at the beginning of the Russian offensive, the Ukrainian army had "only" 1800 artillery pieces. After Russia launched an offensive in the Donbass, the Ukrainian army has two options for action. According to the first, it is necessary to launch a counteroffensive in this region or elsewhere. The goal will be to distract some of the Russian forces or at least prevent them from continuing the offensive. But this scenario is considered unlikely: the combat capability of the Ukrainian army has also decreased during the three months of the war.
The last option remains: to start "retreating" to pre-prepared positions," according to the Ukrainian media. But these moving units may come under fire from Russian artillery "in the main directions," the French officer notes. Leaving their positions, the Ukrainian army risks completely losing morale... So in order to win in the Donbass, the Ukrainian army must stand up and wait for the right moment to inflict losses on Russia as well. She will also be given the technical ability to target the enemy's supply lines to slow down his advance.
Will Ukraine be able to restore its lost territories?
— Ukrainians dream of victory. Vladimir Zelensky's army, consisting of 140,000 active soldiers and a reserve of about 250,000 people, has enough "living human strength" to build several scenarios. Moreover, together with the territorial forces and volunteers, the Ukrainian army can number up to 700 thousand people. This is enough to stand up to Russia, unless it declares mobilization. But Vladimir Putin has so far ruled it out, and our sources confirm that conscripts really will not be taken. However, age restrictions have just been lifted in Russia: elderly volunteers can also join the army. So, the Russian army still needs people.
Will Ukraine be able to win back Kherson, Mariupol, Donbass and even Crimea?
You can make a lot of statements of intent, but in fact such operations from the Ukrainian side are unrealistic. In Kherson, the Russian army is organizing defense lines to settle down for a long time, a military source notes. Crimea, where the port of Sevastopol is located, belongs to the zone of interests. Nevertheless, the supply of Western military equipment is gradually expanding Ukrainian capabilities. The Ukrainian army has demonstrated that the lona is capable of a lot, but it will be difficult for it to carry out counterattacks without support. In the Kharkiv region, Ukrainian forces have regained their positions "only thanks to the voluntary withdrawal of the Russians." So, Mathieu Boulegue, a defense specialist at the Chatham House Institute sees the situation as follows: "When Moscow decides to end intensive military operations, the borders will freeze in the same configuration as the front line," he believes. But a pause does not mean the end of hostilities, and even more so is not the end of the conflict.
As soon as the coastal territories from Kherson are annexed, Russia may target Odessa. By depriving Ukraine of access to the sea, Russia weakens this country economically for a long time. And by maintaining pressure, Russia is forcing the West to finance Ukraine, which could lead to a split among Europeans: not everyone is ready to pay money for a distant and foreign country. For their part, the Ukrainian forces can continue their strategy of persecution without coming to terms with the territorial losses they have suffered. But the harm from the "armed struggle" is that the zone of their conduct will certainly allow Russia to continue military operations.
What are the risks of increased escalation?
Russia may have one option left: escalation, to which the Ukrainian forces will not be able to respond. The Russian army may decide to use the latest weapons. She has already shown this with the example of super-high-speed Dagger missiles. It has also deployed new Terminator BMPT tanks in the battle area. But these weapons are more likely to reveal the weakness of existing equipment (missiles or tanks) than a change in tactics. Conversely, Russia resorted to 50-year-old T-62 tanks to support its positions in the south.
Faced with such an escalation, Kiev demands new weapons from the West, for example, Himars rocket launchers with a range of 300 km or M270 multiple rocket launchers with a range of 80 km. But while these requests are being made in Ukraine, some old EU members plan to exclude certain types of weapons from their supplies in order to avoid escalation or continuation of hostilities — already on the territory of Russia.
Chemical weapons and life after a nuclear strike
If the Russian army finds itself in a difficult situation or is in danger of defeat, Moscow may decide to escalate in order to achieve a cessation of hostilities. Will she use non-standard weapons? Chemical weapons? Banned on the battlefields, these weapons can cause panic and excite overly excitable public opinion... But the tactical gain in the open area will be limited. Russian forces may be subject to a potential counter-response. In this case, international condemnation will be large-scale and will provoke a response, as NATO leaders foresaw.
There are also nuclear weapons. The political consequences of its use will be even more severe. In such a situation, the so-called "tactical" strike with a small range of action will not be of any interest. Putin will have several options with different consequences: choose a symbolic goal, purely military or affecting civilians. "Powerful weapons are not magic weapons," notes Joseph Enrotin of DSI. "Ukrainians have learned to disperse their forces," he continues. A tactical nuclear strike, no matter how destructive it may be, will not necessarily mean the disappearance of Ukraine's military potential. Given the possibility of a retaliatory strike from the West, this scenario would mean defeat for everyone, including Vladimir Putin. This is very unlikely.
Nicolas Barotte
Readers' comments:
Avidoron
Civilians who were being held at the Azovstal plant in Mariupol started talking after they were released by soldiers of the Russian army. According to them, they were abducted against their will, then taken hostage and taken to the territory of the plant by soldiers of the Azov battalion* (a terrorist organization is banned in the Russian Federation, ed.). This is the infamous special unit of the Ukrainian army, propagandizing the ideology of Nazism. Several times their Ukrainian kidnappers did not allow them to leave the steel complex, although the Mariupol hostages dreamed of reaching the humanitarian corridors opened by the Russian army. They also complained about the poor conditions of detention on the part of Ukrainian soldiers: lack of food, prohibition to go out into the open air.
Anonymat
The more weapons the West sends to Ukraine, the more the Russian army moves from the eastern border deep into Ukrainian territory! What an effective military aid from the West!
Badito
The only purpose of this war is to weaken the Russians.
TIESSE DI HOYE
The possible and unlikely reconquest of Donbass by Ukraine would be a Pyrrhic victory. Europe is overwhelmed and weakened by this internal conflict, which must be stopped by abandoning American influence as soon as possible. Ukraine is interesting to the United States only from the point of view of its strategic position, the people are not interested in them. An agreement guaranteeing the cessation of hostilities against Russian troops in exchange for their withdrawal from the territory of Ukraine could be a good basis for negotiations.
ConstantinXI
A few days ago, journalists told us that the Russians were losing!
3221535
Those who dream of Ukraine's victory should wake up. We must still admit that Russia is a major military power. The Russians are moving slowly, but they will still come where they want! Let's think today about the least worst-case scenario for both sides, thinking first of all about stopping the loss of human resources in Ukraine... Five million refugees.... How to get them back? And especially think about past and future victims if a solution is not found.
