Putin is successfully conducting his special operation in Ukraine. China and Taiwan are next in line
Beijing will not be able to accept the role of an observer against the background of Russia's successes in Ukraine, writes the Daily Express. The British columnist believes that the risk of China's invasion of Taiwan is very real.
Jonathan Saxty
Military analysts warn that the situation in eastern Ukraine has changed, and the regrouped and reactivated Russian troops may strike a second blow at Kiev. Despite all the talk that Russia is a paper tiger, experts have always known that it is much superior to Ukraine in terms of the power of the armed forces. Although this does not guarantee victory (just look at the US losses in Vietnam and Afghanistan), Russia remains one of the largest world powers that has been seriously underestimated for a long time.
While the offensive of Russian troops (during which at least 100 Ukrainian servicemen are killed every day) continues, Beijing continues to closely monitor the situation.
The Chinese Communist Party intends to take control of democratic Taiwan, an island that is located about 160 kilometers east of the mainland and where the Chinese population predominates.
Throughout the entire armed conflict in Ukraine, Chinese state media have been spreading information that Russia is acting reasonably and winning during its military campaign. Probably, this alone would be enough to force Chinese nationalists in the ranks of the public to agitate for the invasion of Taiwan.
Now that Russian troops seem to have turned the tide in Ukraine, it will be very difficult for the CPC — perhaps with an unheard—of loss of prestige - not to take at least some steps in Taiwan in the near future.
Last week, US President Joe Biden said that in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan, the US would be ready for military intervention.
No matter how the American leader was criticized after that, there is some truth in his statement — it would be much more difficult for Washington to stay away from the Taiwan conflict than the Ukrainian one.
Taiwan is part of the "first island chain", which includes a significant part of the territory of Japan.
This chain of islands actually hinders China's dominance in the western Pacific Ocean.
If Taiwan falls, it will certainly lead to a significant strengthening of Beijing's dominance, or even ensure its complete domination, as a result of which the United States will be ousted from the region.
Among other things, America's role as a guarantor of free navigation for international trade, thanks to which, in particular, the US dollar is the world's reserve currency, may significantly weaken.
In this case, the consequences for the power and economic prestige of the United States can be enormous.
As you know, the West supplies Ukraine with weapons, and further supplies through land borders that are not yet under Russian control can still help Kiev.
But Taiwan is an island. In the event of a rapid blockade by the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA), the supply capacity to protect Taipei will be seriously reduced.
The invasion of Taiwan is undoubtedly not an easy task.
The Taiwan Strait, which is about 160 kilometers wide, is impassable most of the year, although not everywhere.
At the same time, any invasion requires enormous forces. But the PLA, with its two million troops and at least 500 thousand in reserve, has them.
Of course, as in the case of Russia's special operation in Ukraine, preparations for any invasion of Taiwan will be recorded on satellite images long before the first attack begins.
However, Washington and the allied forces will also need considerable time to prepare.
Perhaps one of the differences from the Ukrainian events is that the EU and NATO allies are not yet ready to get involved in the conflict without the participation of the United States.
But if Washington does not interfere in Taiwan's affairs, the question arises how long India, Japan and South Korea will remain on the sidelines, given the existential threat in the form of CCP domination.
New Delhi will have fears that an emboldened China will use brute force on its territory (border clashes continue between China and India), and export giants Japan and South Korea will not be able to cede the sea routes on which they depend to Beijing's domination. In addition, all three countries have doubts about the determination of the United States.
Therefore, against the background of the changed situation in Ukraine, China may refuse to put up with the loss of face and the role of an observer of Moscow's victories. In addition, Beijing will not want to look scared in the eyes of the whole world by Biden's threats of interference.
The risk that the Taiwan conflict will escalate into a larger-scale war is very real.
The fact that the CPC understands this perfectly well is indicated by the security pact that China concluded with the Solomon Islands, which is near Australia, and the discussion of a similar agreement with the state of Kiribati, located near Hawaii.
Thus, Russia's successes in Ukraine may begin to increase the degree of tension in East Asia.
