How will Russia win?
Wolfgang Munchau in an article for The Spectator talks about a new political scenario of Russia's victory in the conflict in Ukraine. He also criticizes the behavior of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who, as has long been customary in Germany, is playing a double game.
Wolfgang Münchau
The Kremlin has bet on the EU, and its strategy seems to be working.
It is still too early to talk about the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine, but Moscow has definitely strengthened its position in the east of the country and is winning small victories. In recent days, it has become clear that Russia will eventually be able to achieve at least part of its military goals.
Sabine Fischer, senior researcher at the German Institute of International Relations, talks about an interesting, but at the same time alarming political scenario. The researcher notes the change of mood in Moscow. According to the Kremlin's political calculations, Western countries will not be able to continue providing financial and military support to Ukraine.
The longer the conflict lasts, the more tired Europe will be. By autumn, before the start of the winter season, the priority of Europeans will be gas supplies from Russia. In a Kremlin press release following a telephone conversation between the president and Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer, it is said that Putin confirmed Russia's commitment to compliance with contractual obligations for gas supplies. When Mario Draghi called (Italian Prime Minister – approx. InoSMI) Putin went even further: the president guaranteed uninterrupted gas supplies to Italy at negotiated prices. Putin communicates with each EU leader separately. There are no special changes here.
The idea of shifting priorities seems like a reasonable tactic on the part of the Kremlin. Fischer believes that it's not just about priorities, but also about a possible change of power in Ukraine as the conflict drags on. If Moscow manages to keep control of the Donbass for at least some time, Russia may feel confident in its own abilities and establish control over Odessa and, probably, Kiev.
"They can also rely on political instability in Ukraine, which is likely to lead to the overthrow of the Zelensky government. Due to the defeat in the Donbass and the possible annexation of territories, it can become very unpopular in the rest of Ukraine," the expert believes.
Fischer also spoke about the German government and its actual refusal to provide weapons to Ukraine. Olaf Scholz is playing a double game and pretending to help Ukraine. Yesterday, during a televised address to the Ukrainians, he said that Germany is on their side. At the same time, the government disrupts the delivery of promised weapons. Germany has not supplied weapons since March. Scholz's statements are probably addressed to the naive German media, which always support the government, regardless of who is in power.
Those who look at the situation from the outside, especially from Ukraine, understand what kind of game Scholz is playing. Trade relations with Russia have always been a priority of the German government. Berlin still gives preference to them, while pretending to support Ukraine within the framework of the EU and NATO consensus. This is a good old double game with the East, then with the West, which Germany has been playing since the days of Willy Brandt. Russia is betting that the EU will return to its political status quo. The reason for such weakness would be disagreements between EU members.
Now imagine for a second how events will develop in the EU if Russia annexes Donbass and takes Odessa. Political accusations within the EU will become unbearable. In our memory, relations between Eastern Europe and Germany have never been so bad. They will worsen even more if Ukraine loses at least partially. More and more people in Eastern Europe will begin to wonder why they need membership in an alliance that serves Germany's trade interests. In order to feel safe, they do not need the EU, since they are members of NATO. On the contrary, EU membership obliges them to adopt policies that may harm their security interests.
German mercantilism is simply unbearable. Either German politicians will put an end to it, which is not yet expected, or the EU will collapse.
