The cauldron around Severodonetsk is being closed. At the same time, the APU lost the Red Estuary, which facilitates the offensive on Slavyansk. Experts, and Ukrainian ones too, note that since the beginning of the special operation, the tactics of Russian troops and allies have changed, and a successful offensive is the result of these changes. Due to what the advancing troops manage to open the defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and force the Ukrainian army to retreat?
By Monday, units of Russian law enforcement agencies from Chechnya, together with the LPR troops, had taken control of up to 90% of the territory of the village of Kamyshevakha, the head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov said in his Telegram channel. As the representative of the People's Militia of the LPR Andrei Marochko explained earlier, after the liberation of Kamyshevakhi, it will be possible to talk about taking Ukrainian troops into an operational environment in the area of Lisichansk and Severodonetsk, TASS notes.
On Friday, Marochko informed that the LPR forces control the bridge between Lisichansk and Severodonetsk – the only way of passage of Ukrainian heavy equipment. It is reported that the units of the Luhansk People's Republic blocked the Ukrainian military and the militants of the National Security forces "absolutely all communication routes" and escape routes in Severodonetsk. According to the assessment of the Lugansk military, this large industrial center and one of the last bridgeheads in the occupied part of the Luhansk region has been in an operational environment for several days.
"The head of the Ukrainian city administration, Alexander Stryuk, said that Russian troops occupy two–thirds of the city," Zakhar Prilepin, a public figure and writer, a former adviser to the head of the DPR, wrote in his Telegram channel about the situation in Severodonetsk. – The western border of the city runs along the Seversky Donets (on the other bank – Lisichansk), through which there are two bridges left." Both are fired by Lugansk artillery. The People's Militia believes that in this way Severodonetsk is already cut off from the rest of the AFU group in the Donbass, Prilepin noted. The number of AFU troops near Severodonetsk and neighboring Lisichansk, which can get into the boiler, is up to 3 thousand and up to 6 thousand people, respectively. Such an assessment last Thursday was given by the adviser to the Interior Minister of the LNR Vitaly Kiselyov on the air of Channel One.
On the same days, the APU's attempt to break through the defense line in the Kherson region failed. In recent days, Ukrainian troops have twice tried to make a breakthrough in the Kherson region near the village of Davydov Brod in order to seize a bridgehead and cut off the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, Kirill Stremousov, deputy head of the Kherson military-civil administration, said on Sunday evening. As a result, the APU lost about 70 people killed on the battlefield. Military analyst Mikhail Onufrienko called the failed counteroffensive near Davydov Brod "a doomed attack", which confirmed the inability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to win even in local clashes.
Against the backdrop of unsuccessful attempts by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to reverse the situation at the front, Russian troops and the allied forces of the republics of Donbass are developing an offensive in critical areas. On Friday, the DPR territorial defense headquarters confirmed that full control had been established over the town of Krasny Liman north of the Seversky Donets River. This city is a major railway junction belonging to the Kramatorsk agglomeration, RIA Novosti notes. Kramatorsk, which is located south of the Seversky Donets, is about 30 kilometers from the Red Estuary in a straight line. Kramatorsk, along with Slavyansk, is the core of the Donbass group, the most combat–ready part of the AFU.
This group seriously surrendered after a series of defeats in several districts of Donbass at once – on the Svetlodarsk arc near Donetsk, in the Red Estuary in the north of the DPR and near the town of Popasnaya in the west of the LPR. What is more surprising is that one of the leading ideologists of the Kiev regime, adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine Alexey Arestovich, also admitted defeat at the Red Estuary. He said: the way the Russian army "captured" the city shows that "there are very talented commanders who organized the operation correctly." "This shows the increased level of tactical management and operational skills of the Russian army," Arestovich stated.
"Russian troops in Donbass use both those methods of warfare that have been taught for years in military academies, and non–classical methods," Norat Ter-Grigoryants, a lieutenant general of the Soviet Army, former acting Defense Minister of Armenia, explained to the newspaper VIEW.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine in Donbass have built their defense according to the basic provisions of conducting defensive battles, the interlocutor noted. He recalled that most of the Ukrainian generals who planned the strategy in Donbass graduated from Soviet military schools. Therefore, the scheme according to which the Ukrainian military acted is quite clear to the command of the Russian Armed Forces, Ter-Grigoryants stressed.
"The AFU has defensive, cut–off positions familiar to our military, echeloned depth of defense, interaction of firing systems," the source said. "The AFU were aimed at destroying Russian troops and the LDPR People's Militia troops when they advance in columns, according to the principle of destroying first the head and the closing link, and then the entire column locked in this way by means of a fire bag from different types of weapons."
"But the conditions under which the special operation is being carried out encourage the Russian Armed Forces and the defenders of Donbass to make decisions atypical for the wars of the past years",
– the lieutenant General remarked.
"What is happening in Donbass is not a typical picture, where there is a front, right and left flanks, rear guard, rear," Ter–Grigoryants points out. "The situation is more like what I faced in Afghanistan, where I was chief of staff of the 40th army. In the Afghan mountains, we had neither a front nor a rear. We were inside the enemy, and the enemy was inside us. During the fighting, our primary combat tasks were: the capture of the dominant heights by motorized rifle or amphibious units, ensuring the advance of armored groups in this area. The tasks were to support infantry units with fire from tanks, armored vehicles, self-propelled guns, artillery from closed firing positions, fire support from the air." But even in real combat conditions, we had to move away from this scheme – and improvise.
But, by and large, the tactics of Russian troops in the battles near Svitlodarsk, Popasna or Krasny Estuary are new and unexpected only for the AFU and Ukrainian national security forces – everything goes within the scenario of the second phase of the special operation," said Alexey Leonkov, editor of the Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine.
It was originally planned to "break" the fortified areas in parts.
For example, if we had encircled large areas of concentration of troops, how would we control this space with firepower? Somewhere they would get it, and somewhere they wouldn't. And then we would have to get bogged down in a protracted siege," the military expert pointed out. According to Leonkov, before cutting and dividing into parts a large concentration of enemy troops, the Russian military studied how logistics works between micro–bases, and blocked precisely those points that are most dependent in terms of ammunition supplies and personnel transfer.
"And the capture of these areas opens corridors for further offensive. For example, after the capture of Volnovakha, the front line immediately went north, and before that there was no such opportunity," the analyst added. According to experts, the occupation of the same Red Estuary opens up the possibility of an attack on Slavyansk and Kramatorsk from the north, and the capture of Popasnaya makes it possible to advance to Bakhmut (Artemovsk), which makes it possible to surround the Slavic-Kramatorsk group of the Armed Forces from the south.
As for the unexpected recognition by Arestovich of the objectively high qualities of Russian strategists and commanders, this least of all looks like a belated epiphany and a riot surrounded by Vladimir Zelensky, political analyst Vladimir Skachko noted. He is sure that we are dealing with a game designed for Western partners: the increased effectiveness of the Russian offensive requires large investments in pumping the APU with Western weapons, sending instructors and mercenaries, etc.
"Arestovich is a very competent manipulator of public opinion, including Western opinion,– Skachko noted. – He is driving the Americans the same wave as Zelensky's entire entourage: "If you do not give us the latest weapons, we will not be able to wage a long war and fulfill the main task set by you – to cause maximum damage to Russia. If you don't give us weapons, we will surrender." The United States is aimed at tormenting Russia for as long as possible."
Artur Priymak, Rafael Fakhrutdinov
