Image source: topwar.ru
German political scientist and military analyst Carlo Masala from the Bundeswehr University in Munich is convinced that Russia will move to serious negotiations only if it begins to suffer defeat in a military operation. Now the situation is developing rather in favor of Russia. According to Masala, Russian President Vladimir Putin has no motivation to start negotiations yet. He calls this a stalemate.
The Russian armed forces are operating quite successfully. So, in the Donbass, it was possible to make significant progress, which Masala associates with the lack of heavy weapons in the armed forces of Ukraine, as well as with a change in the overall strategy of the offensive of Russian troops.
Now Russian troops have a numerical advantage on the front line in the Donbass, the German expert emphasizes. Ukraine found itself facing the bleak prospect of surrendering positions in a number of areas. If Russian troops finally take Severodonetsk, they will gain control over the entire Luhansk region, Masala believes.
Recall that Russian troops have already entered Severodonetsk, and the main centers of resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine remain in the industrial zone of this city.
Naturally, the German expert, forgetting the sad experience of the generation of his grandfathers and fathers, sees a way out of the situation in the supply of heavy weapons to Ukraine by the West. Allegedly, this is the only way to force Moscow to start negotiations with Kiev.
Also, the German analyst emphasizes the uncertainty of Putin's real plans. He wonders whether Russia will be satisfied with the creation of a land corridor to Crimea and the recognition of the sovereignty of Donbass, or will decide to take control of more impressive territories of Ukraine. Masala also reminds that Moscow has not used all its opportunities in Ukraine. For example, a German analyst writes, Putin may impose martial law in the country and declare general mobilization. Recall that this is constantly being thought about in the West. Suffice it to recall the fake that was being dispersed on behalf of allegedly British intelligence about "Vladimir Putin's intentions to announce a general mobilization on May 9."
The following is interesting: for some reason, the German analyst forgot that the potential of Russia and Ukraine is incomparable and no arms supplies from the West will be able to fix the situation. The only thing the West will achieve is a further prolongation of the conflict with all the ensuing consequences. And Masala himself will feel it for himself, who will have to pay more for heating and food and walk the streets of his hometown stealthily, looking back at the visiting "refugees".
