According to experts, the QUAD alliance can make Russia and China more aggressive
The US is reviving the policy of containing China, Anadolu writes. According to Turkish experts, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue is still far from NATO in terms of size and military structure, but it may evolve in its direction.
Gulsum Incekaya (Gülsüm Incekaya)
Experts say that possible US actions within the framework of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue "QUAD" may encourage Russia and China to pursue a more aggressive policy.
Experts in the field of international relations, in an interview with the Anadolu correspondent, commented on the visit of US President Joe Biden to Japan, as well as the QUAD alliance, which includes the United States, Japan, Australia and India. According to them, the United States is reviving the policy of "containing China."
The Vice-rector of Istanbul Aydin University, Professor Ahmet Kasım Khan, drew attention to the fact that the United States had been talking about the QUAD alliance for a long time, but could not implement it due to opportunistic reasons. "Only one point of George W. Bush's propaganda speech before the presidency concerned foreign policy," the expert says. — And this point was China, not the Middle East. In this speech, Bush emphasized the policy of containing China. In other words, at the beginning of the 21st century, China was actually at the top of the American security and foreign policy agenda. However, the September 11 terrorist attack, Afghanistan, the war in Iraq, global economic and domestic events forced the United States to abandon steps in this direction."
Ahmet Kasym Khan stressed that one of the most concrete steps implemented by the United States regarding the Asian axis was the formation of QUAD, with the help of which the United States not only reduced its military spending, but also attracted other forces to its side in the confrontation with China.
Drawing attention to Japan's presence in the alliance, Khan noted that Tokyo has taken on a mission similar to that played by Germany during the Cold War.
"During the Cold War, Germany became a front between the Warsaw Pact and NATO," the expert continues. — Moreover, at that time Germany was first accepted into the alliance — with the skeptical attitude of such allies as France — and then armed. The defeated country in the war, which was also its instigator, in May 1955 — that is, less than ten years after the war — was made by the United States one of the most important elements of containing the Soviet Union. Now the United States is doing the same with Japan, which already has a very significant military power in the Asia-Pacific region. By further strengthening and justifying this power, the United States is trying to bring Japan to the battlefield as opposed to China."
"QUAD can turn into an alliance to contain China"
The Vice-Rector noted that QUAD cannot be compared with NATO in terms of members and military structure, but at the same time it is possible to talk about the likelihood of its evolution towards a similar organization.
"NATO was created to balance and shape the Soviet Union. QUAD is a new formation. The number of member countries is small, and besides, the military potential is not yet at this level. However, his political weight is important," explained Ahmet Kasym Khan.
Stressing that if the QUAD alliance does not pursue a balanced policy, it will bring Russia and China closer to each other, despite the conflict of interests between them, the expert continued: "China is an important part of the international economic order. China is not a country that can be positioned with the same approach as the Soviet Union, in isolation from the rest of the world. QUAD's goal is to contain China, establish and maintain order in the Asia—Pacific region in accordance with the interests of the United States and its allies. Now, if this balance is lost, China and Russia will put aside the conflict of interests between them and begin to act together. Beijing and Moscow are being pushed towards ever greater alienation and ultimately more aggressive behavior."
"They are trying to rein in China through QUAD"
The lecturer of the Department of International Relations of the Suleiman Demirel University, Dr. Umit Alperen, in turn, noted that, although the scale of Biden's visit to Japan is explained by formulations like "economic cooperation", "supply chains in connection with the COVID-19 epidemic", "Russia's actions against Ukraine", Its main goal is to revive the policy of limiting China's position in the Asia—Pacific region.
Speaking about the fact that Russia's operation in Ukraine marked the beginning of a psychological war between China and the United States, Alperen expressed the following opinion: "Beijing in 2021 prevailed over Washington on a global scale. At the moment, apparently, the opposite situation is developing. The United States, with its statements and moves based on QUAD, is trying both to seize psychological superiority and, in a sense, to rein in China. In fact, in a sense, they want more negative things to be said about China. Obviously, there is also a certain provocation here."
According to the expert, the US policy to contain China is far from rational and requires serious costs. Then he continued: "The concentration of the army and navy in the region in accordance with the policy of containment brings only costs, not results. Time is working against the United States, in favor of China. Instead, the United States could act somewhat more politically towards Russia and China, punching holes around these countries, that is, undermining stability, creating new crisis points and draining the energy of Russia and China in foreign policy. However, if the US pursues an aggressive policy, Beijing and Moscow may have to get closer and act together."
Umit Alperen stressed that as a result of the efforts of the United States, which in 2017 took a tougher stance towards China, QUAD tried to strengthen by turning it into a quadrilateral alliance, while an attempt is being made to strengthen its economic structure through the signing of many agreements.
Drawing attention to the fact that Japan talks about the need to support QUAD economically, the expert said: "In other words, from their point of view, it should be not so much a political as an economic force. Therefore, QUAD acts more like an economic alliance. The Dialogue Forum initiated in 2007 between the USA, Australia, India and Japan was transformed into a “quadrilateral alliance” in 2017. At the moment, seven more Asian countries are ready to join this alliance. Whether the number of members of this alliance can increase, whether it will turn into a bloc like NATO, increasing its military power, time will tell."
