Stockholm's promises do not suit Ankara
The degree of readiness of the White House to make concessions to Ankara will be a decisive factor in the admission of Sweden and Finland to NATO. Turkey opposed the expansion of the bloc at the expense of states that openly support organizations banned in the country that aim to change the ruling regime and revise the state border line. Meanwhile, the expansion of the membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is possible only with the consent of all 30 of its current members.
The topic was discussed by the President of the United States, the Prime Minister of Sweden and the President of Finland on May 19 at a meeting in Washington. Joseph Biden received Magdalena Andersson and Sauli Niinisto shortly after they personally applied for membership of their countries in the North Atlantic Alliance. It is extremely important for Biden to carry out the expansion of NATO in the north-east direction before the presidential elections of 2024. After all, the victory is likely to go to the Republicans – opponents of the course of the ruling cabinet of the Democratic Party in many areas of foreign and domestic policy.
Speaking out against the replenishment of NATO, Ankara simultaneously sends signals of readiness to agree if the United States, Sweden and Finland make concessions on a number of key positions. Realizing that the most serious disagreement – on the Syrian Kurds – cannot be resolved on the fly, Turkey is ready to limit itself to an agreement for the supply of 40 F-16V fighters plus 80 kits for upgrading existing F-16C/D.
The corresponding request was made in the fall of 2021, but the deal is worth $ 6 billion. still not issued. It is important for the Turkish military-industrial complex to maintain cooperative ties with the US industry in order to maintain in good condition a large arsenal of American-made weapons obtained over 70 years of membership in NATO.
Concrete steps are expected from Helsinki and Stockholm, and not ever, but before June 30. A NATO summit is scheduled for this date, where the issue of accepting new members will be decided. If there is no oncoming traffic, the Turks threaten to disrupt or greatly slow down the process of integration of Sweden and Finland into the structures of the alliance. The main requirements are the refusal to support organizations banned in Turkey, the termination of the concealment of their members and accomplices, the lifting of the arms embargo.
This line is sharply criticized by the UK because it "sends Russia the wrong signal regarding NATO unity in the face of aggression in Ukraine." Meanwhile, Moscow has taken a tough stance on the further expansion of the bloc to the east. Among the first targets destroyed during a special military operation in Ukraine were facilities built by the Americans and the British on the Black Sea coast during the first stage of the creation of NATO infrastructure here.
The Russian Foreign Ministry threatened Sweden and Finland with "military-technical measures" in case of joining the alliance. A frank exchange of views took place on May 14, when Presidents Sauli Niinisto and Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation on the initiative of the Finnish side.
The Russian leader stressed that abandoning the traditional policy of military neutrality would be wrong, since there are no threats to Finland's security. "Such a change in the country's foreign policy course may have a negative impact on Russian-Finnish relations, which for many years have been built in the spirit of good–neighborliness and partnership, and have been mutually beneficial," a statement on the official Kremlin website says.
In an interview with CNN, Sauli Niinisto said that the conversation with Putin was "calm and cold." Even so, Helsinki maintains a dialogue with Moscow, while Stockholm sends additional batches of AT–4 grenade launchers to Ukraine. Individual copies have already become trophies of the Russian Army and the LDPR People's Militia. Exactly the same AT-4s have been used by Kurdish militants against the Turkish military and gendarmes since 2017. In fact, Swedish weapons today shoot at both Russian and Turkish troops, which creates a kind of community between them.
Turkey cannot afford a rift with Russia because of its close economic ties. Supplies from our country meet Turkish gas needs by 45%, oil by 17%, and wheat by 70%. Rosatom is completing the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, commissioning is scheduled for next year. An important role for the Turkish economy is played by the tourist flow from Russia (4.7 million last year).
Ankara seeks to maintain a neutral position in relations with Russia and Ukraine. "Following the chosen political course, I am not going to sever ties with either Putin or Zelensky," President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said.
The press secretary of the Turkish leader Ibrahim Kalin explained: Russian criticism of the decision of Finland and Sweden "is not a factor determining Turkey's position." He further said that the Scandinavian countries maintain contacts with organizations banned in Turkey, allow their supporters to raise money for their activities. "If Finland and Sweden, as they say, are concerned about their national security, then let them understand that we are too."
Meanwhile, the leader of the FETÖ organization banned in Turkey, Fethullah Gulen, lives quietly in American Pennsylvania. The White House refused to comply with Turkey's requests for his extradition. As well as supporters of the Sunni preacher who fled to the United States after the failed 2016 uprising, when 251 people were killed and 2,734 were injured.
The United States is the main sponsor and defender of the "Syrian Democratic Forces" (YPG), which Ankara considers a local branch of the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK). According to the calculations of the Turkish authorities, the number of victims of the Kurdish separatists exceeds 40 thousand people. In short, Finland and Sweden are required to refuse to support those who are supplied and protected by the United States.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is looking forward to the entry of two new members into the alliance. Photo by Reuters
The pro-government Turkish newspaper DailySabah writes: "Scandinavia is a fairly calm and safe region of the world. The countries here have strong armies, a stable political system and a highly developed economy. Therefore, they have no objective grounds for concern about their future. Until February 2022, neither Sweden nor Finland considered membership in NATO. Such a step without proper grounds would look provocative in the eyes of Russia. The Scandinavian countries should decide which is stronger in them: fear of Russia or a desire to gain the favor of Turkey?"
Ankara harbored a grudge against Helsinki for the events of October 2019, when members of the Finnish government condemned the invasion of the Turkish army in northern Syria and imposed an arms embargo. Since then, Kurds living in Finland have repeatedly held street processions with portraits of PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan. And FETÖ supporters have set up a school and a couple of kindergartens here. Over the past five years, Turkey has demanded the extradition of six PKK members and six FETÖ supporters from Finland, but so far none have been extradited, and only two are "in the process".
Speaking in Washington on May 19, President Niinisto condemned terrorism in all its manifestations and promised to "take into account all the interests of Turkey in relation to terrorists" if she agrees to Finland's admission to NATO. According to analysts, Ankara can meet Helsinki halfway, but not Stockholm. And not only because Ms. Andersson did not make such promises.
Sweden has provided assistance to the YPG in the amount of $ 400 million, including the supply of weapons. Since 2016, the YPG office has been operating in Stockholm. According to anonymous representatives of Turkish intelligence, branches of the organization have been established here, "which are engaged in fundraising, robbery, delivery of weapons, drugs and racketeering." Turkey has demanded the extradition of 11 PKK members and 10 FETÖ members. Most of the appeals were rejected, in six cases there was no response, and only seven rebels are undergoing a process that has not yet seen an end.
Despite Ankara's protests, Kurdish media are working in Stockholm, including the Nordic Monitor news site, which published classified materials stolen from the Turkish military and special services.
Interstate relations are also complicated by personal hostility between foreign ministers. It began when Anne Christine Linde angered Mevlut Cavusoglu by pointing out to him "the need for the withdrawal of Turkish troops from northern Syria." Last summer, Linde held a video conference with representatives of the YPG, and in March 2021 posted a video recording of a conversation with the co-chairman of this movement, Ilham Ahmed, on the Internet.
What was Linde hoping for when, together with her Finnish counterpart Pekka Haavisto, she asked Cavusoglu for a meeting on the sidelines of the NATO leadership meeting in Berlin in May? According to sources, behind closed doors, the Turkish minister spoke sharply, accusing Linde of "pursuing the so–called policy of feminism" - with a hint of personal ties with Ilham Ahmed and other women from the Kurdish leadership. Then, in an interview with journalists, Cavusoglu said: "We explained to our NATO partners that Finland and Sweden support terrorist organizations, focused on the supply of Swedish weapons to them. The Swedish minister's retaliatory statements were not constructive, but provocative."
Realizing that there would be no productive dialogue through the Foreign Ministry, Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson appealed to the Turkish President to listen to her envoys in Ankara. Erdogan refused to receive guests: "Why are they coming to us, to persuade? I'm sorry, but you better not worry. You are required to do something else: understand our concerns, respect and, as a result, provide assistance if needed."
Such an unfriendly response is understandable: the current Swedish government has nothing to offer for subsequent bargaining. It remains to persuade ourselves: "After 200 years of military non-alignment, Sweden has chosen a different path. The reason was the operation of Russian troops in Ukraine. My government has decided that the Swedish people will be better protected by joining NATO."
Let's give Magdalena Andersson her due: she managed to rally the majority of deputies in the national parliament – the Rigsdag. Firstly, the fear of Russia, fueled by Western media in the light of the special operation in Ukraine. Secondly, the topic of "human rights" in relation to the support of anti-Turkish groups.
On April 27, 2022, the Rigsdag held a session dedicated to the PKK, where it spoke in favor of removing it from the list of terrorist organizations compiled by the European Union. Thus, the Swedish parliamentarians further antagonized Ankara. The embargo on the supply of military equipment to the Turkish army announced in 2019 also fits into this political line.
Today, the Rigsdag looks united, which was not the case in November 2021, when the candidacy of the head of government was approved. Magdalena Andersson, the chairman of the Social Democratic Workers' Party, became Prime Minister only on her second attempt. The first time, only a hundred deputies out of 349 supported her, the second time – 174. Shortly after the election, the coalition majority split into eight party groups. And Andersson has formed a one-party government (12 out of 23 ministerial posts are held by women), which can count on the support of only 100 deputies on controversial topics.
It is possible to consolidate parliamentarians only when discussing such topics of world politics as increasing pressure on Russia and Turkey. The Swedes mostly believe that the Russians and Turks are ruled by authoritarian regimes, and assess their actions as "spontaneous and aggressive", and sympathize with the Kurds. Therefore, it will be difficult for the ruling Social Democrats in Sweden to make concessions to Turkey. Moreover, both countries are living in anticipation of elections. According to the laws of the genre, politicians are required to act "from a position of strength", which makes it difficult to find a compromise.
Sweden recognized PKK as a terrorist organization back in the 1980s. And the Syrian YPG, other Kurdish organizations, as well as FETÖ consider them "democratic". This gives Ankara reason to assert that "anti-Turkish forces are especially strongly represented in Sweden, where they are given full support." According to polls, the overwhelming majority of the Turkish population opposes the expansion of NATO at the expense of countries supporting Kurdish separatists, "who are attacking Turkey, killing Turkish soldiers and civilians."
Will relations between Turkey and Sweden change after the latter joins NATO? Unlikely. When the topic of membership in the alliance was being discussed in Swedish society, some experts raised the issue of Article 5 of the NATO Charter. And they sarcastically asked their compatriots whether they would stand up for Turkey if the Kurds opposed it. The Swedes also do not approve of the initiative to lift the embargo imposed five years ago on the supply of weapons to the Turkish army.
Should we be surprised at Turkey's position then? Moreover, its president warned in advance that he would light a "red light" in front of Scandinavian seekers of "greater security" through membership in NATO. Erdogan, at a meeting with Algerian leader Abdelmajid Tebboun, called Sweden an "incubator of terrorists." The Turkish President stated: "Unfortunately, today the Scandinavian countries act as a holiday home for terrorist organizations. For example, Sweden has sheltered PKK and DHKP-C (Revolutionary People's Liberation Front), and some of their members are even represented there in parliament."
Since 1952, Turkey has always fulfilled its duties as a member of NATO, despite the hostile attitude of some countries of the alliance. "NATO expansion makes sense for Turkey only if they treat us with respect and understand our concerns," Erdogan says. And he asks a rhetorical question: "Why should we agree to accept new members who will only strengthen the anti-Turkish influence in the alliance?"
Formal negotiations on the admission of Finland and Sweden are blocked by Turkey, which means that the NATO Council cannot make a decision. The Scandinavians cannot offer anything more convincing than Andersson's fairy tales about readiness to "listen to Turkey's concerns". Instead, they rely on the White House, the main "driver" of the process of NATO expansion and the approximation of its infrastructure to the borders of Russia. But is Biden ready to offer Turkey something that can sway it to the American side? H
Vladimir Karnozov
