Warsaw seeks to become Kiev's main ally
The historical factor is very important in the modern politics of Poland. More precisely, a severe historical trauma, which still requires compensation (at least psychological).
In the Middle Ages, Poland (Rzeczpospolita) was one of the European superpowers, significantly surpassing Russia in potential and status (" Friends from Orsha to Zhenbao ", "HBO", 08.10.21). At the beginning of the XVII century, the Polish king almost headed the Moscow kingdom. But then, due to the peculiarities of its internal structure, Poland sharply weakened and at the end of the XVIII century was completely divided between Russia, Prussia and the Austrian Empire.
With the restoration of independence in 1918, Poland immediately revived ambitions for the creation of a state "from sea to sea" (from the Baltic to the Black). As a result, in 1939 Poland was liquidated for the second time and divided between the USSR and Germany. And in 1945 it was restored already within the new borders and under the control of the USSR.
In the 1980s, it was Poland that initiated the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and the entire socialist system. At the same time, the desire for historical revenge and extreme hostility to Russia (as, indeed, to Germany) still remain almost at the genetic level in the country.
THE SPECIAL WAY OF WARSAW
In this regard, Poland remains one of the very few European countries where the defense consciousness of the population remains. And the military potential is not only not decreasing, but even increasing.
In Poland, earlier than in other European countries, the failure of NATO as a military organization and the need to defend its independence with its own forces and/or in alliance with the United States, the only real military force of the West, was realized. Therefore, in addition to the purely symbolic NATO contingents deployed in recent years in Poland and the Baltic States, Warsaw has achieved the deployment of a full-fledged combat brigade of the US ground forces on its territory (these brigades regularly change according to the principle of rotation).
In addition to realizing the actual uselessness of NATO, Warsaw is in difficult relations with the European Union due to the peculiarities of its internal policy and ideology. The desire of the Polish leadership to put the country's judicial power under the control of the executive branch causes an extremely negative reaction from Brussels.
In addition, Poland is practically the only country in modern Europe that rejects the EU's characteristic left–liberal policy of tolerance and political correctness (primarily with regard to sexual minorities and migrants from outside Europe). Therefore, Brussels is imposing economic and political sanctions against Warsaw.
Poland's relations with Belarus and Ukraine are very peculiar. At the beginning of the XVIII century, almost all of modern Belarus and a significant part of Ukraine were part of Poland. In 1939, Poland once again lost Ukrainian and Belarusian territories (although six years later it received a large compensation at the expense of German territory). Accordingly, unspoken claims to all these lands remain in Poland.
In addition, relations between Ukraine and Poland are burdened with the memory of the events of 1943-1944, when Ukrainian and Polish nationalists waged an extremely brutal war of extermination between themselves in the border areas, engaging in mutual ethnic cleansing (in fact, mutual genocide). At the same time, the ideological heirs of those nationalists are now in power both in Kiev and in Warsaw.
If we go back to a more distant history, in Poland they used to treat Ukrainians as cattle and slaves. Moreover, this attitude has only strengthened in recent years due to the phenomenon of mass "zarobitchanism" of Ukrainians in Poland. However, it is so important for the Polish leadership to achieve a complete break between Russia and Ukraine that today it is trying to avoid pedaling historical problems in relations with Ukraine. Although scandals still happen regularly.
TRYING TO KEEP UP EVERYWHERE
The Polish National Security Strategy, published two years ago, largely reflects the circumstances described above. The fact that Russia is called the main (or rather, the only) potential opponent of Poland is so natural that it cannot cause any surprise.
Of course, the Strategy talks about the importance for Poland of its relations with NATO and the EU. But at the same time, almost the same importance is attached to the need for special cooperation with the United States. And the development of military cooperation with Finland and Sweden, which are not yet members of NATO. And comprehensive strengthening of the Visegrad Group (Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary). Thus, it is confirmed that NATO and the EU are currently only strategic partners for Warsaw from a number of others, and not at all the "center of the Universe".
But much more space in the Strategy is given to the development of their own armed forces. Warsaw understands the need for independent military efforts without relying on NATO. It is planned to develop the network-centric capabilities of the Armed Forces, their situational awareness and the ability to strike at considerable distances, create robotic systems, increase the mobility of the armed forces, strengthen special operations forces, prepare to wage war in cyberspace.
Particularly noteworthy is the desire to develop air defense and VET, overcome A2/AD zones, and create their own similar zones. This means that the Polish Armed Forces are not focused on the "fight against terrorism" and not on beating a deliberately weaker enemy than NATO has been doing in the last quarter of a century, but on a classic war with a strong enemy, for which NATO is completely unprepared today.
In addition, the defense of the country is considered in the Strategy as a task not only of the Armed Forces, but also of the entire state and society. Such an approach is completely out of character for the current Western military construction.
It is even more uncharacteristic for today's Europe to single out in a separate section of the Strategy the need to preserve national identity, the cultural heritage of the country, family and Christian traditions. Here the ideology of Warsaw radically diverges from the position of Brussels and is close to the current Russian ideology. Some representatives of the Polish right even believe that Poland should move closer to Russia on the basis of the ideology of "protection of traditional values." But clinical Polish Russophobia turns out to be stronger than these calls.
HEAVY-MINDED AMERICA, HYSTERICAL EUROPE
The intervention of NATO (precisely as an alliance) in the conflict in Ukraine would have become possible if the Russian Armed Forces had suffered very high losses in people and equipment and could no longer resist the NATO troops. The probability of implementing this scenario is minimal.
Psychological moments have a much stronger effect on the situation. During the Cold War, a nuclear conflict seemed impossible primarily because the USSR and the USA were led by people with World War II experience. They knew how terrible even a non-nuclear war was. In addition, despite the severity of the ideological confrontation, the leaders of both superpowers remembered that during the Second World War they were allies.
Now the alliance is completely forgotten. The current elites of Russia and NATO countries have no real military experience (local wars are incomparable in scale and consequences with the Second World War). At the same time, the intellectual level of political elites has decreased, but the influence of emotions on political decisions has sharply increased.
In this regard, an interesting point can be noted, which was not noticed by many people. Contrary to expectations and previous experience, at the beginning of the current conflict, the US imposed sanctions against Russia much more slowly and not as consistently as the EU. Perhaps Washington still does not want to finally push Moscow into the arms of Beijing. In Europe, no one cares about this circumstance.
But it makes sense to consider psychological aspects as well. In the USA, there is now a gerontocracy reminiscent of the USSR during the late stagnation (late 1970s – early 1980s). Decisions are made with a slowdown. In addition, Biden, a politician of the Cold War generation, is very afraid of a nuclear collision.
In Europe, politics, according to current ideological attitudes, is strongly feminized, and even many men begin to behave the same way as women. Therefore, the EU policy is not just extremely emotional, but frankly hysterical. So it is extremely difficult to predict its further development.
On the one hand, the resistance of the European armed Forces to losses is so low that they cannot even wage a conventional war with an equal opponent. On the other hand, incapable of rational thinking, and often incompetent politicians of both sexes (or how many sexes there are now in the West) can even bring the situation to a nuclear war.
But so far its probability does not seem high. We should not forget about the openly pro-Russian and anti-Ukrainian policy of Budapest, which will almost certainly veto any NATO military actions on the territory of Ukraine.
THE LAST THROW TO THE EAST?
The role of Warsaw in the current situation is becoming very special.
Of course, Poland would very much like to regain at least some of the territories that were ceded to the USSR in 1939 and 1945. Of course, the easiest way to do this is in Ukraine. The issue of the introduction of the Polish Armed Forces in the western Ukrainian regions has been discussed for a long time. The further away, the more likely it seems that this scenario will be implemented. At the same time, the question of the status of such an operation is of principle.
As already mentioned, it is extremely unlikely that Warsaw will be able to send troops into Ukrainian territory on behalf of NATO. The maximum she can count on is that Brussels and Washington will not prohibit her from conducting such an operation and will allow her to act on her own behalf. But then the question arises about what the official purpose of this operation will be.
Poland can officially declare itself an ally of Ukraine. In this case, Poland becomes a military opponent of Russia. But if Russian strikes on Polish troops take place only on Ukrainian territory, this will be a problem only for Poland itself (as Russian air strikes on Turkish troops in Syria were problems only for Turkey itself). The Russian Armed Forces are unlikely to strike on the territory of Poland – unless Poland itself attacks the territory of Russia and/or Belarus.
However, Polish troops can be brought into Ukraine under the pretext of protecting the population of its western part, without a direct alliance with Kiev, only with its formal notification (that is, in fact, to regain these territories for themselves, first de facto, and then, perhaps, de jure). Theoretically, Moscow could take this quite calmly. But Kiev would face the prospect of a war on two fronts. Of course, Ukraine is not capable of conducting it, and in this case the question would arise before it – to whom to capitulate?
However, without direct support from NATO, Poland is unlikely to risk an invasion. But in the future, if the destruction of the Ukrainian state becomes obvious with the prospect of its complete loss of sovereignty, Warsaw can begin to act completely on its own initiative. And then any development of events will be possible.
Alexander Khramchikhin
Alexander Anatolyevich Khramchikhin is an independent military expert.
