Because of the war in Ukraine, the EU will not become a world power
The entire foreign policy of the EU and Germany is now reduced only to relations with Russia, writes Geopolitika.news. The rhythm is set by Britain and the USA. The European Union has lost the global potential of power and the ability to independently conduct foreign policy. And the Europeans will pay for it.
Mario Stefanov
After the start of the Russian military special operation in Ukraine, the geopolitical power of Germany, and with it the European Union, contrary to the statements of European leaders, is rapidly falling. In parallel, the influence of Washington and London on the formation and implementation of European continental policy is growing.
Loud statements about transatlantic unity and solidarity hardly conceal the fact that all the levers of European policy in this new Euro-Atlantic community are in the hands of the United States and Great Britain.
The European Union was de facto left without its own geopolitical capabilities, which the Europeans tried to create with such zeal, and without the ability to act independently not only in the international arena, but even on the European field. Germany, and with it the European Union, in the new order of the transatlantic community, created just a few weeks after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, is forced to modify its foreign policy and adjust it to the line of Great Britain and the United States, which took the lead in countering Russia.
The direction is clear
Now the entire foreign policy of the European Union and Germany is reduced only to relations with Russia. The rhythm is set by the UK and the USA. The EU no longer has a chance for geopolitical autonomy, and nothing will change for a long time. All dreams of a "world European Union" will turn to dust and ashes.
The state of the European Union's foreign policy is completely the opposite of what Josep Borrel, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, tried to present in his author's article on the Internet portal of the European External Relations Service (EEAS) on April 26. Even if we make allowances for what he has done so far, since he does not have a drop of talent for diplomacy, the theses of this article are amazing. In a situation where the foreign policy of the European Union in the context of an armed conflict is completely subordinated to the American and British leadership, Borrel argues: "The EU has strengthened as an international player, and we can even talk about the emergence of a geopolitical union." This thesis at the beginning of the article is clearly motivated by conversations, increasingly heard on the diplomatic sidelines, that German politics is collapsing, as the foreign policy of the European Union is collapsing with it. Borrel goes against all logic and explains his thesis precisely by its close connection with British and American politics. The success, according to Borrel, is that "the EU, together with the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Japan and other partners and allies, defends the international protection of Ukraine. The response was coordinated from day one and even earlier, as everyone shares intelligence with each other."
All this simply does not correspond to reality. While the leading powers of the European Union, led by Germany, were calculating options and trying to find a way to stop Putin in the style of Neville Chamberlain, the protection of Ukraine from the Russian invasion was prepared and began to be implemented literally from the first day almost exclusively by the United States and Great Britain.
An unfulfilled dream
So they gained an advantage in the European political arena, which the EU and its leading powers, especially Germany and France, can no longer challenge. American and British politics dominate European affairs in view of such developments and the actions of key players.
Therefore, it is quite clear that, for example, plans to create a European army and strengthen European cooperation in the field of military―industrial complex on the Berlin-Paris axis are turning into an unfulfilled dream. In the coming period and beyond, the leading role in Europe will be played exclusively by NATO, which is led by Washington with the assistance of London. The European defense industry and military integration, of course, will develop, but only within the framework of NATO. No deviations from this are possible under any circumstances.
After the start of the Russian military special operation in Ukraine, all decisions on European affairs were concentrated in Euro-Atlantic political structures and NATO, which, no matter what anyone thinks, are subordinate to the United States. Therefore, the former commander of the European Command of the US Armed Forces, James Stavridis, is right when he says that the Russian special operation in Ukraine succeeded in what he failed in four years. He was referring to the full integration of Germany and the European Union into the political and military structure of the Euro-Atlantic complex.
Germany and European politics were practically in the role of the accused. Thus, Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, deputy chairman of the influential German Marshall Fund, an American analytical center created for the development of American-German relations, in an interview with France 24 frankly stated: "Europe was not mistaken, but Germany and France were. France and Germany constantly speak on behalf of the rest of Europe, but political mistakes in relations with Russia were made in Berlin and Paris, and not somewhere else. Eastern Europe was not mistaken, just as Northern Europe was not mistaken."
Newfound power
According to Kleine-Brockhoff, the conflict in Ukraine requires early changes in German policy towards Russia. "Before our eyes, not only the European order formed after the Cold War is being destroyed, but also the strategy used by Germany and France," he added.
The collapse of German and French politics is nothing but the collapse of the foreign policy of the European Union, which the deputy chairman of the German Marshall Fund did not want to say frankly. He only hinted at it.
In the current situation, France, thanks to Macron's maneuvering abilities and France's insignificant participation in energy projects with Russia, manages to fend off accusations of cooperation with Putin. Germany is broken and sprinkles ashes on its head.
Thus, German President Frank Walter Steinmeier, who was banned from entering his territory by Ukraine, which only speaks of Kiev's newly acquired power over the European arena with American and British support, admitted in a fit of self-criticism that he had strayed from the ideologically correct political path.
Steinmeier practically apologizes to the leading Euro-Atlantic politicians, who are now held firmly in their hands by Washington and London, and shamefully admits: "We have maintained bridges with Russia, as our partners have told us… I did not believe that Vladimir Putin would agree to the complete economic, political and moral collapse of his country because of his own imperial madness. Like many others, I was deceived."
We can expect that next time he will point to all the other political leaders in Europe with whom he was friends, and with whom he followed the wrong ideological path. We can also expect a continuation of heartbreaking confessions from politicians across Europe with outright self-flagellation.
Outpourings of self-criticism
How serious the situation is, and how low German and European politics have fallen, is indicated by the fact that we are still talking about the president of the German state, the strongest and leading member of the European Union, and not about some third-rate local politician. It simply cannot be ignored. If the German president himself is forced to pour out self-criticism and sprinkle ashes on his head, then one may wonder into what kind of geopolitical swamp has Germany and the policy of the European Union plunged? Deputy Chairman of the German Marshall Fund Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff concluded: "The conflict in Ukraine has blown up the bubble in which Germany has lived since the 1990s." In his opinion, Germany enjoyed a comfortable position in this bubble, provided with cheap energy resources from Russia, and there was no need for defense investments. This allowed German industry to grow, the welfare of the state and citizens to maintain a peaceful position in foreign policy: Germany could negotiate with everyone and therefore was not afraid for its own defense. It was not without pleasure that Kleine-Brockhoff noted that this had come to an end.
Blows to German politics, and therefore to the policy of the European Union, are being inflicted from all sides of Euro-Atlantic integration. Thus, another leading American analytical center dealing with relations between the United States and Germany, the American Institute for Modern German Studies, published an analysis entitled "The End of Europe as we Know it?" from the pen of Jeffrey Ratka. Already on the first day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, on February 24, the author blamed European, and especially German, politicians for mistakes in relations with Russia.
The article says: "There will be enough time for analysis, accusations and self-criticism. Western politicians have failed to deter Russia from a brutal attack on its peaceful Ukrainian neighbor and on the peace that has reigned in Europe for decades. But the main thing is to transform this shock into decisive action. And Germany should be the first to do it... Germany is a gravitational center that can make Moscow pay dearly and reduce Europe's vulnerability to Russian aggression. Will Berlin draw the right conclusions from this turning point in history?"
Military outpost
In fact, the idea is suggested that Germany should change its erroneous policy, and with it the policy of the European Union. They are trying to influence Berlin so that it does not return to the old policy of cooperation with Russia in any case. The leitmotif of the whole article is the thesis about the need to keep German politics and economy away from Russia, although after the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, there is objectively no need for this, since in the conditions of fighting in Ukraine and Russian actions in Europe, no German cooperation with Russia is possible anymore.
In fact, they are trying to return the European continent to the old geopolitical tracks of the Cold War, when European countries were united by the European Economic Community, that is, in the days before the creation of the European Union. The EU is practically losing its political identity under the pressure of military events, accusations of Germany and European countries depending on economic cooperation with Russia, especially in the energy sector, and due to the consistent interception of initiative and leadership by British and American politicians after the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine. There is a possibility of an actual quiet return to European integration on the model of the European Economic Community, that is, an economic union without independent political will.
Germany is again expected to play the role it played during the Cold War ― a kind of military outpost of NATO.
The only difference is that this time Germany, which has been humiliated because of economic cooperation with Russia in previous years, is expected to use its influence in the European Union, a political association that still functions as an independent foreign policy entity mainly by inertia. It is expected that it will firmly bind itself to the transatlantic complex, that is, American and British politics, to the detriment of its influence in the European space. Now a united Germany still has more political influence on the European member states of the European Union than during the Cold War, and it is simply obliged to use this force for the benefit of the Euro-Atlantic community.
American planes
Germany is required to mobilize all member states of the European Union for the benefit of a common policy and, of course, a greater contribution to defense, which implies closer military cooperation with the United States and Great Britain. Instead of creating some kind of integrated defense industry of the European Union and developing European weapons systems of a new generation, Germany is required to cooperate more closely with the American and British sides of Euro-Atlantic structures. In this regard, Germany's decision to purchase American F-35 fighters is indicative. She allegedly set a condition that the European industry would be involved in the production of these aircraft and further developments. In fact, all this is happening in the interests of the United States, and the history of the Cold War is repeating itself, when American F-104 Starfighter fighters served as the main combat aircraft of European NATO members.
Germany bought almost a thousand units, and the Starfighter was produced under the license of the American Lockheed at European factories, including the Italian Fiat, the Dutch Fokker, the German Messerschmitt and the facilities of the Belgian company Sabka.
Now, according to the American plan, the F-35 should repeat the history of the Starfighter. Its production under the Lockheed license, as in the case of the Starfighter, will continue in several European countries for the needs of their aviation. The Germans, demanding that Germany and European countries participate in the production of the F-35, are actually bluffing and only repeating what the Americans say. The F-35 will thus become the main combat aircraft of the European part of NATO, repeating the model of political and military relations that was formed at the time when this role was played by the American F-104 Starfighter. Of course, then we will have to abandon the common French-German project of developing a sixth-generation European combat aircraft.
After the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, the United States and Great Britain are clearly putting pressure on Germany and the European Union because of the creation of an economic bridge with Russia. It benefited, first of all, Germany, as it received cheap energy for industry. But Russia also benefited, which received Western technologies, components, as well as finished goods.
Dependence on energy carriers
Among other things, Germany, within the framework of the green policy, completely closed its energy sources that it had. I mean nuclear power plants and coal-fired power plants. But it has also neglected other sources of hydrocarbon fuel, oil and gas, having tied itself tightly to Russia and its energy carriers.
Thus, a kind of pact was formed between Moscow and Berlin, and with it with the entire European Union. Of course, Germany did not like Russia's military actions in Chechnya and Georgia. She rejected the annexation of Crimea. But Germany continued to stick to its pact with Russia, involving a significant part of the European Union in it. Germany was balancing between its own interests and the interests of the Euro-Atlantic community, which, under the leadership of Washington, demanded the termination of cooperation and the containment of Russia.
Finally, the pact broke up. Russian divisions, entering Ukraine, also broke the economic and political pact of Germany and the EU with Russia. They were left with nothing, and in the absence of other options, they had to submit to the united will of the West and take a militant line within the Euro-Atlantic community.
The United States and Great Britain exhaled when Hitler attacked Russia
The pact between Moscow and Berlin collapsed for the second time in a hundred years, and the historical tragedy was grotesquely repeated.
After the German attack on the USSR in June 1941, before the United States entered the war, the American semi-official Foreign Affairs published an article "The War for Eastern Europe" by Bruce Hopper. It was released on the first of November 1941, that is, just 13 weeks after the German attack on the USSR. It unequivocally expresses the American opinion about cooperation and the pact between Berlin and Moscow. Bruce Hopper writes: "The Nazi attack on Bolshevik Russia ends one nightmare, but opens another. The gloomy prospect of the union of the two wings of the world revolution, which so frightened Western politicians, was crossed out by Hitler's tank divisions." As it is clear from the Foreign Affairs article, the Molotov―Ribbentrop Pact, or as it was officially called the Non―Aggression and Friendship Pact between Germany and the USSR, of 1939 was then a nightmare for the rest of the Western democracies, the maritime powers - the United States and Great Britain. When Germany attacked the USSR, they exhaled. The German-Russian pact collapsed.
Similarly, the Americans and the British exhaled when this time Russian tank divisions began fighting in Ukraine. This step naturally destroyed a kind of new pact between Russia and Germany.
The European economy will pay the most
The failure of German Eastern policy has also affected the European Union, which is led by Germany. The guilt of Germany and its subordination to the common interests of the entire Euro-Atlantic community blocked the notorious strategic complex of the EU, whatever it means. Thanks to a crafty game, Washington and London reasonably took control of European continental affairs in the conditions of Russian military operations in Ukraine and a new war in Europe. Germany and the European Union could not do this because of their ties with Moscow. The conflict completely changed the position of the European Union as an association and sent it together with Germany in the only possible direction ― to the American-British center of Euro-Atlantic ties. The strategic compass of the European Union has been blocked, and in the coming years the EU has lost the global potential of power and the ability to independently conduct foreign policy independently of Washington and London.
As a result, Europe and the European Union with their citizens will pay the most.The European economy will pay for a new European war and the collapse of German foreign policy and the policy of the European Union. Angela Merkel has quietly left the arena, and the whole of Europe will again quietly pay the German bills and pay the political checks that the European Union handed out, trying to build its global power. After the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, Germany and the European Union are losing their geopolitical potential in front of the whole world, no matter what their official representatives say.
