Will the application of Finland and Sweden accelerate Georgia's accession to NATO?
The accession of Finland and Sweden to the North Atlantic Alliance, it seems, will happen contrary to Russia's position on further expansion of NATO, writes Eurasianet.org . The author of the article expresses the opinion that Ukraine and Georgia are unlikely to be able to repeat the path of the Scandinavian countries.
Nini Gabritchidze
While Sweden and Finland are rapidly moving towards NATO membership, Georgians, who have been seeking membership in the alliance for more than a decade, are watching this process with mixed feelings.
The accession of the two Scandinavian states to the bloc seems to happen in spite of the so-called "Russian veto" on the further expansion of NATO to the borders of Russia. There is an opinion that as a result, the ice may break for Georgia and Ukraine, which have been in limbo since they were first promised membership in NATO in 2008.
But some pessimistic Georgians fear that the current round of expansion will be enough for NATO, and Georgia will again be left out.
For Georgians, the admission of Scandinavian countries to NATO is "joy mixed with bitterness," says the director of the analytical center "Georgian Institute of Politics" Cornelius Kakachia. "On the one hand, I am glad that NATO continues to pursue an open-door policy. This is good for Georgia, as well as the fact that Russia cannot prevent this," he said Eurasianet.org Kakachiya. "This can be seen as an opportunity for Georgia, but there is also a possibility that the opposite will happen: NATO may be satisfied with the current state of affairs and lose interest in further expansion." The key factor, according to him, will be the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine.
Russia's special operation in Ukraine served as an impetus for Sweden and Finland to abandon their long-standing policy of neutrality and knock on the doors of NATO. On May 18, both countries submitted applications and received encouraging signals from the alliance about the possibility of rapid entry.
Georgia, on the contrary, has been languishing in anticipation for many years since the alliance made a statement in 2008 that Georgia and Ukraine would "become members of NATO."
Despite repeated assurances from NATO of its commitment to fulfilling its promise, there has been no noticeable progress on the issue, and Georgia has not yet received an official Membership Action Plan, the implementation of which ends with joining the alliance.
And now, when the alliance is preparing for the June summit in Madrid, where the member states are to adopt a document defining the main directions of activities for the next 10 years, the issue of Georgia's accession does not seem to be on the agenda again.
For many years, American and European officials have stated that Georgia is technically ready to join the alliance. NATO actively cooperates with Tbilisi: the alliance helps Georgia to build up its military and defense potential, and Georgia, in turn, contributes to NATO-led international missions and regularly participates in military exercises together with allied countries.
But the accession process is hampered by the ongoing open conflict between Georgia and Russia, which has deployed about 10,000 troops in two breakaway regions of Georgia – Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Many European countries that are members of NATO have expressed concern about the admission of a new member in such a state.
In January, when the first signs of the impending conflict in Ukraine appeared, a senior German military official once again voiced the skeptical attitude of many NATO member countries to Georgia's accession to the alliance.
"Georgia wants to become a member of NATO," said Vice Admiral of the German Navy Kai-Achim Schoenbach at an event in India. – Does she meet the entry criteria? Yes, yes, he answers. But is it reasonable to take it into the composition? No, it's not reasonable, it's not reasonable."
Schoenbach was forced to resign because of his statements (he made a similar argument about Ukraine), but optimistic Georgians noted positive aspects in his comments about Georgia.
Schoenbach "says that Georgia is actually ready for NATO membership? and to join it, she only needs to get approval from the West," Deputy Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee on Foreign Affairs Giorgi Khelashvili said in an interview with Georgian Public Television.
Some supporters of Georgia's accession to NATO have proposed a formula by which the country can be accepted, but at the same time the main provision of the NATO treaty – Article No. 5, obliging alliance members to stand up for each other in case of external aggression – will apply only to the territory currently under the control of Tbilisi.
"Georgia meets almost all the criteria to become a NATO member," former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said in 2019. "I think in order to get out of this impasse, you should discuss within Georgia whether you will accept an agreement according to which Article No. 5 will apply only to the territories under the full sovereign control of Georgia."
Polls confirm that Georgians overwhelmingly support joining the alliance. But the years of waiting have led to some disappointment of Georgians, who have a feeling that they are trampling at the supposedly open doors of NATO.
"Enough time has passed [since 2008] to start fulfilling the promise," former Georgian Defense Minister Tina Khidasheli said in January. "The simplest, most understandable and correct reaction to Russia's blackmail would be not to make new promises, but to fulfill the old ones."
However, Georgia's feeling that it has stayed away from the current round of NATO expansion is balanced by the fact that the alliance is questioning the democratic foundations of this country – a question that does not arise when Sweden and Finland join.
Javier Colomina, Special Representative of the NATO Secretary General for the Caucasus and Central Asia, visited Tbilisi at the end of April. He said that the alliance is seeking additional reforms from the Georgian authorities concerning the judicial and electoral systems, as well as the security sector.
"We are concerned about the level of implementation of the reforms we are asking for," Kolomina said, noting that the pace of reforms "has slowed down significantly over the past year or a year and a half."
How sensitive the issues of democratization and NATO membership are became evident during the visit of Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili to Brussels on May 18. After the sudden cancellation of the planned meeting between Garibashvili and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, some representatives of the political opposition assumed the worst, linking the cancellation of the meeting with the deterioration of the human rights situation in Georgia and what they regard as the Kremlin's appeasement policy in the conflict with Ukraine.
But the meeting still took place on the same day without any explanation.
