An ally in a difficult time. Will Algeria become an intermediary between Russia and the West?
Recently, Algeria has received many representatives of states and international organizations, Sasapost notes. Next in line is the visit of the French President, which was preceded by the arrival of the Russian Foreign Minister. According to experts, much now speaks about the desire of the Arab country to play a mediating role in the conflict between Moscow and the West with the maximum possible benefits for Russians.
Suleiman Shaabani
The French President intends to pay a visit to Algeria at the end of May 2022 at the invitation of President Abdelmajid Tebboun. After Macron's victory in the April 24 presidential election over his main rival Marine Le Pen, a candidate from the far-right, the Algerian leader sent a congratulatory message to his colleague, in which he noted the desire to greet him personally in the near future and work together to develop and deepen bilateral relations.
The visit of the French President will be a kind of culmination of Algeria's active diplomatic activity: recently, the country has received many representatives of States and international organizations. Of particular note is the visit of Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio in February and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in March, which was preceded by the arrival of his Deputy Wendy Sherman. In April, a few days before the second round of the presidential elections, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian visited Algeria.
On May 10, 2022, the President received Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and two days later, the director of the NATO Military Headquarters, Hans-Werner Wirman, arrived in the Arab country, where he was received by the Chief of Staff of the Algerian army, Said Chengriha.
Umar Sega, a researcher in the field of politics and security from Umm Al-Qura University in Algeria, comments on these events: "Successive visits by foreign ministers of leading Western powers reflect their special position on Algeria's role in resolving global and regional crises. The balanced diplomacy of the state is really of great importance for the settlement of various tensions observed in the Arab region and Africa."
Nothing happens by accident. Algeria and France — friendship after tension
Over the past year, French-Algerian relations have been in crisis. It began with a statement by President Emmanuel Macron, made during a meeting with youth representatives, when he questioned the fact of the existence of the Algerian nation before the French occupation, that is, before 1830.
These words were met with sharp criticism from the Algerians, and the authorities of the Arab state considered Macron's statements "irresponsible", recalled their ambassador Mohamed Antar-Daoud from Paris and closed the airspace for French military aircraft participating in Operation Barkhan off the African coast. As Algerian Foreign Minister Ramdan Lamamra noted at the time during a televised address: "Macron suffers from memory gaps."
Diplomatic tensions between the two countries persisted for about a year, despite Paris' attempts to resolve the crisis, until the Algerian authorities received Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian before the second round of presidential elections.
During the visit, the Minister stressed the importance of cooperation with Algeria, as a result of which the latter supported President Macron. Thus, the imam of the Grand Mosque of Paris called on Muslims to vote for the current leader, which helped him to receive 85% of the votes of the Muslim community in the second round of voting.
The number of Algerians in France has exceeded 5.5 million people, and they are characterized by the highest birth rate among immigrant minorities. According to the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Research, it was 12.7%. Meanwhile, the number of the French community in Algeria reached 41.78 thousand people in 2017.
The recent visit of Le Drian was the reason for the improvement of bilateral relations, which proved the tone of the congratulations of Algerian President Abdelmajid Tebboun on the occasion of Macron's victory. It showed great cordiality and a desire to put an end to recent disagreements.
Legislative elections are expected in France in June, and current estimates confirm Macron's fears that he will not be able to get a majority and thereby appoint a prime minister, especially in light of strong competition from the left-wing coalition led by Jean-Luc Melenchon. The latter won the trust of the majority of Muslims in the first round of the presidential election, while Macron became the object of criticism due to the wave of inflation caused by rising gas prices.
Common interests after the start of the conflict in Ukraine
France and its former colony share common interests. Paris is the main importer of Algerian products (2019) and ranks second in the list of its suppliers after China. The volume of French exports to Algeria in 2019 amounted to 4.92 billion euros, and imports of Algerian goods — 4.19 billion euros. 95% of French imports from Algeria are oil and gas.
After the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, Algeria became one of the countries that Europe counted on in order to compensate for the shortage of Russian gas. As the French Foreign Minister stated during his visit to Algeria, the Ukrainian crisis had serious consequences in terms of the diversification of energy supplies to European countries, as well as the security of food supplies.
Algeria is under strong pressure from the Europeans on this issue, and most of the meetings of the representatives of the parties were held in this context. Thus, Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio said: "Our government is committed to increasing the supply of energy, especially gas, from various international partners, including Algeria, which has always been a reliable exporter."
This Arab country ranks seventh in the world in gas production and fourth in the Arab world in reserves (more than 159 thousand cubic feet for 2021) and provides 11% of Europe's gas needs. As the Algerian authorities emphasize, for technical and political reasons, the country is not able to replace Russian gas for Europeans, since the required volume is estimated at almost 200 billion cubic meters.
During his visit to Algeria, Sergey Lavrov said: "On the issues of gas supplies to the world market, we, Algeria, and other participants of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum adhere to the agreements reached."
In this regard, Algerian researcher in the field of politics and security, Oumar Sega, noted in an interview with Sasapost: "Lavrov's visit is an attempt to prevent the conclusion of agreements between Algeria and Europe in the field of energy, the purpose of which is to increase gas production and compensate for the reduction in Russian gas supplies."
Historically, Algeria and Moscow have strong strategic relations: the Soviet Union was the first to recognize the independence of the Arab state on March 23, 1962, and it, in turn, hastened to recognize the Russian Federation on December 26, 1991.
69% of Algeria's weapons are of Russian origin. It ranks first in terms of arms imports from Russia among African countries and third in the world after China and India. In 2016, the country accounted for 15% of Russian military exports.
Military trade is of great importance to Algeria because of security problems, especially on the eastern borders with Morocco. Despite the social crisis, the State's defense budget has increased in recent years, exceeding the total expenditures of the state budget on other sectors, including development, education and healthcare.
Can Algeria, with the help of France, mediate between Russia and the West?
According to a number of experts, Moscow is interested in the Algerian ally playing the role of mediator between it and European countries in the conflict in Ukraine. In this context, Ismail Maaraf, Professor of Political Science at the University of Algiers, noted: "A number of official delegations' visits to Algeria are taking place in the context of discussing its leading role in contacts between Moscow and the West, mainly through France."
In his opinion, Russia has become embroiled in the conflict in Ukraine and has become unable to continue actions in light of the economic consequences of sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies in Europe, so it is trying to use allies to mediate.
According to the Algerian professor, Algeria will play this role due to good relations with both sides. Sergey Lavrov's sudden trip to Algeria on the eve of Macron's visit can be viewed in this context.
Ali al-Lafi, editor-in-chief of the Africa 2050 portal, specializing in the problems of North Africa and the Sahara, also shared his opinion in an interview with Sasapost: "Russia expects to attract Algeria to its side, given its importance for the southern region of Europe. The Algerians have managed to distance themselves from the ongoing conflict, but this does not prevent him from playing a mediating role in resolving some crises."
According to the expert, Tebbun's visit to Turkey, Macron's future reception in Algeria, as well as Putin's invitation to visit Moscow — all this indicates the desire of the Arab country to play a mediating role in negotiations with the maximum possible benefits for the Russians.
An expert on Algerian-French relations from the University of Lyon, Miqdad Isaad, confirmed the possibility of such a role for the Arabs: "Yes, according to forecasts, Algeria will become an intermediary between Russia and the West, as it has strong relations with the United States and France, despite the sometimes tense rhetoric."
Umar Sega, a researcher at Umm Al-Qura University in Algeria, told our publication about the possibility of Algeria's direct mediation between Russia and Western countries: "It's too early to talk about it, and we are still monitoring developments in Ukraine and their consequences."
He added: "Algeria is well aware of when to maneuver and when to play the role of mediator, and it always strives to maintain a safe distance in relations with all players. In addition, he has common energy interests with Europe and strategic interests in the field of armaments with Moscow."
Nevertheless, Tunisian expert Ahmed Ben Mustafa ruled out a possible role for Algeria as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine: "It is true that Algeria has excellent relations with the West, but its bias towards Russia and dependence on its weapons do not allow it to be an objective mediator."
He added: "Algeria can be a communication channel between Russia and Europe, but nothing more. His goal is to convey Moscow's point of view to the opponent and thereby put an end to the conflict."
