The website of the magazine "Russia in Global Politics" published an article by Dmitry Trenin, a well-known Russian political scientist, member of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, "Politics and Circumstances" about the prospects of Russia's foreign policy in the light of a special military operation in Ukraine.
(c) The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
It must be understood that the strategic defeat that the West, led by the United States, is preparing for Russia will not lead to peace and the subsequent restoration of relations. With a high probability, the theater of the "hybrid war" will simply move from Ukraine further to the east, to the borders of Russia itself, the existence of which in its current form will be in question.
The confrontation between Russia and the countries of the collective West, which has been developing since 2014, turned into an active confrontation with the beginning of the Russian military operation in Ukraine. In other words, the "big game" has ceased to be a game. It has become a total war, but so far a hybrid one, since currently the armed conflict in Ukraine is mediated. The danger of escalation in the direction of a direct collision, however, not only exists, but even increases.
The challenge Russia is facing has no analogues in our history. The point is not only that we have no allies left in the West, but even potential partners. Frequent comparisons with the Cold War of the middle and second half of the twentieth century are inaccurate and rather capable of disorienting. In the context of globalization and new technologies, the modern form of confrontation is not only more voluminous than the previous one, but also much more intense. Ultimately, the main field of the ongoing struggle is located inside the country - in the same place where the main object of the confrontation is located.
The asymmetry of opponents, the imbalance of available forces and capabilities between them are enormous. Based on this, the United States and its allies, instead of the relatively conservative strategies of containing the Soviet Union - geopolitical (containment) and military-technical (deterrence) - set much more decisive goals, which in fact mean the exclusion of Russia from world politics as an independent factor and the complete destruction of the Russian economy. The success of this strategy would allow the West, led by the United States, to finally resolve the "Russian issue" and create favorable opportunities for victory in the confrontation with China.
Such an attitude of the enemy does not imply a serious dialogue, since there is practically no prospect of a compromise - primarily between the United States and the Russian Federation - based on a balance of interests. The new dynamics of Russian-Western relations is a landslide rupture of all ties, increased Western pressure on Russia (state, society, economy, science and technology, culture, and so on) on all lines. This is no longer a discord between the opponents of the Cold War period, who then became (unequal) partners, but the drawing of an increasingly clear watershed between them, excluding from the Western side any, even formal neutrality of individual countries.
Moreover, the common anti-Russian platform has already become one of the important structural elements of unity within the European Union and strengthening American leadership in the Western world.
Under these conditions, the hopes that Russia's opponents will "come to their senses" or, as a result of internal upheavals in their countries, will be replaced by more moderate figures are illusory. Even in the political classes of countries where, until now, the line towards Moscow has been determined primarily by important economic interests (Germany, Italy, France, Austria, Finland), there has been a fundamental shift towards disengagement and confrontation with the Russian Federation. Thus, the systemic confrontation between the West and Russia is likely to be long-lasting.
This circumstance almost completely nullifies Russia's previous foreign policy strategy towards the United States and Europe, aimed at recognizing Russian security interests by the West, cooperation in matters of global strategic stability and European security, non-interference in each other's internal affairs and building mutually beneficial economic and other ties with America and the European Union. At the same time, recognition of the irrelevance of the previous agenda should not mean abandoning active politics and completely submitting to the force of circumstances.
Russia itself should be at the center of Russia's foreign policy strategy during the period of confrontation with the West and rapprochement with non-Western countries. She will have to rely more and more on herself. The outcome of the confrontation, however, is not predetermined. Circumstances affect Russia, but Russian politics can also change the world around them. The main thing to keep in mind is that it is impossible to build any strategy without a clear goal setting. We need to start with ourselves, with an awareness of who we are, where we come from and what we strive for, based on our values and promoting our interests.
Foreign policy has always been closely linked with domestic policy - in the broadest sense of the word, including economics, social relations, science, technology, culture, and so on. In the conditions of a new type of war, which Russia is forced to wage, the line between what in previous eras was called the "front" and the "rear" is being erased. In such a war, it is not something to win, but simply impossible to survive if the elites continue to be fixated on further personal enrichment, and society remains in a depressed and relaxed state.
The "re-publication" of the Russian Federation on politically more stable, economically efficient, socially just and morally sound foundations is becoming urgently needed. It must be understood that the strategic defeat that the West, led by the United States, is preparing for Russia will not lead to peace and the subsequent restoration of relations. With a high probability, the theater of the "hybrid war" will simply move from Ukraine further to the east, to the borders of Russia itself, the existence of which in its current form will be in question.
This strategy of the enemy must be actively countered.
In the field of foreign policy, the common goal, obviously, is to strengthen Russia's independence as a civilization country, a major independent world-class player, to ensure an acceptable level of security and create favorable conditions for comprehensive development. In order to achieve this goal in the current, much more complex and difficult conditions than recently, an effective comprehensive strategy is needed - general political, military, economic, technological, informational, and so on.
The immediate and most important task of this strategy is to achieve strategic success in Ukraine in the parameters set and publicly explained to society. It is necessary to clarify the stated objectives of the operation and use all opportunities to achieve them. The continuation of what many now call the "strange war" leads to a prolongation of hostilities, an increase in losses and a decrease in Russia's international prestige. The solution of most of Russia's other strategic tasks directly depends on whether and when it succeeds in achieving strategic success in Ukraine.
The most important of these broader foreign policy tasks is not the overthrow by any means and at any cost of the American-centric world order (its erosion is due to objective factors, and the success of the Russian Federation in Ukraine will be a sensitive blow to the global hegemony of the United States) and, of course, not the return to the bosom of this order on more favorable terms, but the consistent building of elements of a new system international relations together with non-Western countries, the formation of a new world agenda in cooperation with them and its consistent promotion. We emphasize that it is necessary to work on this task now, but it will be possible to act fully only after achieving strategic success in Ukraine.
Extremely important and relevant in this regard is the formation of new geopolitical, geo-economic and military-strategic realities in the western part of the former Soviet Union: in Donbass and Novorossiya. The long-term priority here is the further development of allied relations and integration ties with Belarus. The tasks of strengthening Russia's security in the Central Asian and South Caucasian directions belong to the same category. \
Within the framework of solving the tasks of restructuring foreign economic relations and creating a new model of the world order, the most important areas are cooperation with world powers, China and India, as well as Brazil; with leading regional players - Turkey, ASEAN countries, Gulf States, Iran, Egypt, Algeria, Israel, South Africa, Pakistan, Argentina, Mexico and others.
It is in these areas, and not on traditional Euro-Atlantic platforms, that it is necessary to use the main resources of diplomacy, foreign economic relations, information and cultural spheres. If in the military sphere the main direction for Russia now is the West, then in others it is the rest, a larger and more dynamic part of the world.
Along with the development of bilateral relations, it is necessary to give a new quality to the multilateral interaction of the States of the non-Western part of the world. We need to be more active in building international institutions. The Eurasian Economic Union, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Russia-India-China group, BRICS, the mechanisms of dialogue and partnership of the Russian Federation with ASEAN, African and Latin American countries need an impetus for further development. In terms of developing the foundations of the ideology of these organizations, harmonizing the interests of partner countries and coordinating common agendas, Russia is quite capable of playing one of the leading roles.
In relations with the West, Russia's strategy will continue to solve the tasks of nuclear, conventional and cyber support of the United States from military pressure and attacks on Russia and its allies. Never since the end of the Soviet-American confrontation has the prevention of nuclear war been as urgent as it is now. A new task after achieving strategic success in Ukraine will be forcing NATO countries to actually recognize Russian interests, as well as ensuring the security of the new borders of the Russian Federation.
Moscow needs to carefully assess the expediency, possibilities and limits of situational cooperation with various political and social groups in the West, as well as with other temporary potential allies outside the West, whose interests in certain issues coincide with Russian ones. The task is not to damage the enemy anywhere, but to use various stimuli to divert his attention and resources from the Russian direction, as well as to influence the domestic political situation in the United States and Europe in a direction beneficial to the Russian Federation.
The most important goal in this regard is to develop a strategy for the developing confrontation between the United States and China. The partnership nature of Russian-Chinese relations is the main thing that distinguishes in a positive way the current "hybrid war" with the West from the last cold one. Although Beijing is not a formal military ally of Moscow, the strategic partnership between the two countries was officially characterized as something more than a formal alliance. China, Russia's largest economic partner, has not joined the anti-Russian sanctions, but Chinese companies and banks deeply integrated into the global economy are afraid of US and EU sanctions, and this limits the possibilities of interaction. There is mutual understanding between the leaders of Russia and China, the societies of the two countries are friendly to each other. Finally, the United States views both countries as its opponents - China as its main competitor, Russia as the main current threat.
US policy brings Russia and China even closer together. In the context of a "hybrid war", China's political and diplomatic support and even limited economic and technological cooperation with it are very important for Russia. Moscow currently has no opportunities to force an even greater rapprochement with Beijing, and there is no need for too close an alliance. In the event of an aggravation of the US-Chinese contradictions, Russia should be ready to provide political support to China, as well as - on a limited scale and under certain conditions - military and technical assistance to it, while avoiding direct participation in the conflict with the United States. The opening of a "second front" in Asia is unlikely to significantly ease Western pressure on Russia, but it will sharply increase tensions between Russia and India.
The transition from the confrontational, but still conditionally peaceful state of economic relations between Russia and the West to the situation of economic war requires Russia to thoroughly revise its foreign economic policy. This policy can no longer be implemented primarily on considerations of economic or technological expediency. Measures are being implemented to de-dollarize and de-offshorize finance. There is a forced "nationalization" of large owners ("oligarchs"), who previously brought profits outside the country. Import substitution is underway. From the policy of exporting raw materials, the Russian economy is refocusing on the development of closed-cycle production. So far, however, Russia has mostly defended and reacted.
It is necessary to move from retaliatory steps to proactive actions that strengthen the position of the Russian Federation in the total economic war actually declared by the West and cause sensitive damage to the enemy. In this regard, closer coordination of the efforts of the state and the activities of the business community is required, the development and implementation of coordinated policies in such sectors as finance, energy, metallurgy, agriculture, modern technologies (especially information and communication), transport, logistics, military exports and economic integration - not only within the framework of the EAEU and the Union the states of Russia and Belarus, but also taking into account the new realities in the Donbass and the northern Black Sea region. A separate task is to revise Russian approaches and policies on climate change in the changed conditions. It is also important to determine the permissible limits of Russia's financial, economic and technological dependence on neutral countries (primarily China), and launch a technological partnership with India.
War is always the most rigorous and cruel test of strength, endurance and inner strength. Russia today and for the foreseeable future is a belligerent country. It will be able to continue its history only if the authorities and society unite on the basis of solidarity and mutual obligations, mobilize all available resources and at the same time expand opportunities for enterprising citizens, eliminate obvious obstacles that weaken the country from within, and develop a realistic strategy to combat external opponents. Until now, we have only celebrated the Victory gained by previous generations in 1945. Now the question is being decided whether we are able to preserve the country and develop it further. To do this, Russia's strategy must overcome the circumstances surrounding and constraining it.
The article is based on the author's speech at the XXX Assembly of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy.
Dmitry Trenin (c) Russia in Global Politics
