Between the hammer and the anvil. Algeria is facing a difficult choice — Russia or the West? What will be his final decision?
The gas crisis in Europe and Moscow's special operation in Ukraine not only attracted international attention to Algeria, but also put it before a difficult choice — Russia or the West, Rai Al Youm writes. The author of the article tells how this choice is complicated, and what are the real possibilities of the country to provide an alternative to Russian gas.
Editorial article
Algeria can compensate Russian gas to some European countries, including Italy, France, Germany and Spain. Berlin, which receives 55% of natural gas from Russia, is preparing to acquire the share of the Italian company Edison in the Algerian Reggane Nord field, which is approximately $ 100 million.
Analysts believe that Europe's concerns about the termination of Russian gas supplies and the search for an alternative may put Algeria in front of a difficult choice — Russia or the West?
Algeria is the largest gas producer in Africa and the seventh in the world, but the old infrastructure and the growth of domestic consumption are hindering the increase in exports.
European activity
Several foreign energy companies, such as Italian Eni, French Total Energies and Norwegian Equinor, operate in Algeria in accordance with production sharing agreements.
Algeria currently supplies Italy with about 21 billion cubic meters of gas per year, while Russia supplies about 29 billion cubic meters per year. In 2021, Italian Eni signed an agreement with Algerian Sonatrach to increase gas supplies. Additional supplies of up to 9 billion cubic meters per year are expected in 2023-2024.
According to Bloomberg, Algeria is the largest gas exporter to Italy and Spain and the third largest supplier of natural gas to EU countries after Russia and Norway. Thus, it can become a tool for mitigating shocks in the gas market.
Wintershall Dia is a German oil and gas company that has been operating in Algeria since 2002. She is one of the participants in the Reggane Nord project, which includes 6 gas fields and 19 wells with a production volume of about 2.8 billion cubic meters per year. The project is expected to continue until 2041.
"Our company has always been an active partner in the Reggane Nord project, and we are pleased to continue cooperation in this area," said Thomas Rappun, Vice President of Wintershall Dia.
NATO countries are also talking about the revival of the MidCat pipeline project, which would connect Spain with France and would reduce Central Europe's dependence on Russian gas.
Algeria faces a difficult choice
The gas crisis in Europe and the Russian special operation in Ukraine not only attracted international attention to Algeria, but also put it before a difficult choice — Russia or the West?
The USA, France, Italy and Germany are actively searching for an alternative to Russian gas. Moscow, in turn, took advantage of the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations with Algeria by sending Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on a visit. He reaffirmed his commitment to friendly relations with Algeria and stopped the West's attempts to use Algerian gas.
During his visit, Lavrov tried to remind the Algerians that both countries are members of the Group of Friends in Defense of the UN Charter. He also stressed that Moscow has enough buyers of energy resources in addition to European countries.
In September 2021, Algeria and Russia's Gazprom signed an agreement on the development of full-scale cooperation in the field of exploration, production, transportation, processing and sale of hydrocarbons. They are jointly developing the El Assel site in Algeria. It is expected that the field will be put into operation in 2025.
Ukraine, for its part, has taken another step to "cut off the oxygen" of Russia. Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmitry Kuleba held a telephone conversation with his Algerian counterpart Ramtan Lamamra, during which the parties discussed topical aspects of bilateral cooperation and prospects for the development of mutually beneficial ties in various fields.
Lavrov's visit followed the visit of his American counterpart Anthony Blinken, who, according to Western sources, tried to put pressure on Algeria to increase gas supplies to Europe. It is noted that this is the first visit of the US Secretary of State to Algeria in the last 22 years.
Energy specialist Mahma Buzan said that Russian-Algerian relations have a long history. Algeria is the third largest buyer of Russian weapons. The total amount of contracts in recent years has exceeded $ 11 billion.
"Russia is trying to keep the gas price down and is coordinating its actions with Algeria. An increase in gas production in any country is associated with the capacity of production facilities, but today the global gas industry is significantly affected by a shortage of investments, which imposes certain restrictions," he added.
"Hammer and Anvil"
Despite the expectations of Europeans, energy experts do not expect Algeria to be able to save Europe and rid it of dependence on Russian gas.
Energy expert George Zachman says Algeria will not be able to provide more natural gas, even if it has impressive reserves.
Economic commentator Cyril Federshofen, for his part, believes that Algeria is in a difficult situation. If he wants to become the main supplier of energy resources to Europe, this will negatively affect his relations with Moscow.
"It is still unclear how Algerian gas can become a real alternative to Russian gas. Algeria is currently suffering from stagnant exports due to a lack of investment in the oil and gas sector and a large domestic demand," he added.
Hussein Qadri, a professor of political science and international relations at the University of Algiers, says that the diplomatic momentum witnessed by the country since the beginning of the military operation in Ukraine and the gas crisis in Russia, "put the country between a rock and an anvil."
"Algeria can become an alternative, but at the same time it needs investments, because its energy capabilities do not allow replacing Russian gas in the short term," he added.
