Landowski: "Sweden and Finland's joining NATO will help Ukrainians by limiting Russia's ability to attack"
The expansion of NATO at the expense of new members should encourage Ukraine. This opinion was expressed in an interview with iROZHLAS by the Czech commissioner at the alliance, Jakub Landowski. He is sure that the accession of Finland and Sweden to the alliance promises Kiev practical help, but above all it means two things for her.
Alzbeta Indrova (Alžběta Indrová), Katerzhina Gruntova (Kateřina Gruntová)
The beginning of Russia's special operation in Ukraine put an end to the long-term neutrality of Finland and Sweden. Both countries reported that they have applied to join the North Atlantic Alliance, the number of members of which will thus increase from 30 to 32. What will change this step, what message is NATO thereby broadcasting to Ukraine, and what reaction can be expected from Moscow. This was stated in an interview with iRozglas by the Czech commissioner to NATO, Jakub Landowski.
iROZHLAS: What advantages will the accession of Finland and Sweden give to the North Atlantic Alliance?
Jakub Landowski: Finland and Sweden will significantly strengthen the alliance's defense capability. And not only in the Baltic States, but also in general. These two countries have developed and well-equipped armies that are interconnected and capable of cooperating with the alliance. We are well acquainted with them from the exercises, and therefore the entry of these countries will bring only advantages to the alliance.
― What can the armed forces of these countries offer the alliance? You have already said that they are well equipped...
― In case of martial law, Finland has 280 thousand soldiers at its disposal, as well as 900 thousand reservists. Sweden has a huge industrial base to offer: advanced Gripen fighters are produced there, which are also in service with the Czech army.
The Swedish army is very well armed ― so much so that it is even unusual for a neutral state. The Swedish armed forces are also distinguished by high morale and willingness to defend their country.
― Moscow has already stated that Finland's accession to NATO will be regarded as a threat to which it will have to respond. What kind of response can I expect?
― I assume that Russia can go for a provocation or launch a cyber strike, but will not go for an armed attack, corresponding to the definition in the fifth article of the North Atlantic Treaty.
But all the same, we must be ready not only to support Sweden and Finland, but also to help them go from application to full membership, for example, by providing defense assistance, cooperating in the field of security or giving guarantees, like the rest of the alliance countries.
― Will the extension of the NATO border with Russia additionally strengthen the eastern wing?
― Of course, the likely entry of Finland and Sweden will greatly strengthen the alliance's forces in the Baltic region. Both of these countries are very wary of Russia.
― Can we expect the emergence of new multinational groups, such as in the Baltic States and Poland, and now also in Slovakia?
― The question is interesting, but we will proceed from the fact that, for example, Sweden does not plan to ask for such participation of allies and will not deploy nuclear weapons on its territory. Therefore, I would postpone this issue until we can talk as allies.
I would not like to get ahead of myself and anticipate the demands and requests of these two countries. But in general, it is customary in this region to ensure its own security by its own forces and be ready to provide defense guarantees to others, and in the event of a large-scale conflict to act in conjunction with allies.
― Does the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO threaten anything?
― I don't think so. As I assume, Russia will not be able to seriously threaten them or even attack them because of their membership. The alliance provides huge guarantees of security and immediate assistance, which increase the defense capability of the country joining it. And right away. Therefore, from the point of view of the security of these countries, membership is an undoubted plus.
― How long will the actual entry process take, starting with the application and up to full membership?
― After submitting the application, we predict a short phase of accession negotiations, which will probably take several weeks, and then it will be possible to proceed to signing the ratification documents. Of course, if all members of the North Atlantic Alliance confirm their consent.
It is difficult to predict the duration of the ratification process. The process depends on the legislative bodies. In most countries, the decision is made by parliament, and sometimes requires the signature of the president. I think that during the conflict everything will go faster than before. The last time the accession of Northern Macedonia was ratified, the process took about a year.
― You said that all member countries should agree. Turkey is loudly protesting against the accession of Finland and Sweden. How can this affect the accession of the two Scandinavian countries?
― Any decision in the alliance is made unanimously. I am firmly convinced that the diplomatic negotiations that are taking place between Turkey, Sweden and Finland will yield results, and nothing will threaten the accession process of Finland and Sweden. In this sense, I am an optimist (we talked on Monday before President Erdogan said that Turkey would not approve the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO ― author's note).
― How should Ukraine regard the expansion of the alliance at the expense of Finland and Sweden, which has long and unsuccessfully declared its desire to join it?
― For Ukraine, their entry means two things. First, it confirms the openness of the alliance to new members, enshrined in the tenth article of the North Atlantic Treaty in the so-called open door principle. Secondly, the entry of these countries will limit Russia's ability to conduct offensive operations in the Black Sea region.
Russia itself has stated that it will respond to the accession of Finland and Sweden, and for this it needs certain forces, as well as economic support for them. All this can improve the situation for Ukrainians. When the conflict is over, based on its results, we will be able to talk again about how to raise the issue of Ukraine's accession.
― Does this mean that the expansion of NATO at the expense of new members should encourage Ukraine more than deprive it of hope?
― Yes, I think this is an encouraging fact. In addition, the accession of Finland and Sweden promises practical help to it, because now the main thing for us is to stop Russia's attempts to aggressively deal with its neighbors, and the entry of these two countries will limit its capabilities in this sense.
― How likely is it that due to the conflict in Ukraine, other neutral countries, such as, for example, Austria, will think about membership in NATO?
― Yes, we can assume that this will be discussed in other neutral countries. After all, Finland and Sweden, the pillars of neutral states in Europe, have so radically changed their policies in a short period of time and with the huge support of the population. In any case, the principle of the alliance is that it never interferes in this public discussion, whereas the Russian Federation acts on the contrary, trying to influence the behavior of other countries with threats or actions.
