Finnish researcher on Turkey's position in connection with Finland's intention to become a NATO member: relations can deteriorate rapidly — "Erdogan is clearly serious"
Many Western countries would be happy to accept Finland and Sweden into the ranks of NATO — and exclude Turkey from the alliance, a Finnish expert told Uusi Suomi. He believes that relations between Istanbul and the united West can deteriorate rapidly.
Minna Karkkola
Relations between Turkey and the West can deteriorate rapidly, says Toni Alaranta, a researcher at the Institute of International Relations and an expert on Turkey.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on May 13 that Turkey cannot take a positive attitude to the plans of Sweden and Finland to join NATO. On the evening of May 14, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that he, like the president, is concerned that Finland and especially Sweden may support the Kurdish organization PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party).
On May 15, Cavusoglu published a list of requirements that Finland and Sweden need to fulfill in order to join NATO. According to Cavusoglu, Finland and Sweden need to stop supporting terrorism, provide security guarantees and lift export bans related to Turkey.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, in turn, said at a press conference on May 15 that Turkey would not complicate the process of Finland or Sweden joining NATO.
On May 16, Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto said that Cavusoglu had earlier assured him that Finland would not face obstacles on its way.
"The PKK is banned in Finland, it is included in the list of terrorist organizations compiled by the EU. If it is unclear to someone, we can write it in big letters and repeat it at every opportunity," Haavisto said at a parliamentary session.
"Erdogan is clearly serious"
On May 16, Alaranta tweeted that Erdogan is clearly serious, and many Western countries say that they would be more happy to accept Finland and Sweden into the ranks of NATO — and exclude Turkey from the alliance. In response, Erdogan increases the pressure.
"I don't want to scare anyone unnecessarily, but now there are many prerequisites for the fact that relations between Turkey and the West can deteriorate rapidly," Alaranta writes on Twitter.
"No one should be surprised that Erdogan turned this story into a diplomatic crisis? He has repeatedly played such a trick. This time he wants to click on the EU's nose at the same time: this is a complex process, and we need to make sure that you can fulfill the conditions."
On May 15, Alaranta called it good news for Finland that Turkey's criticism is mainly directed at Sweden. The bad news is that the definition of "terrorism" in Turkey is very vague.
"The appearance of an abbreviation of the RCP or a photo of Ocalan at some rally is already enough to bring charges."
The head of the Institute of International Relations Mika Aaltola, in turn, said in the morning program of Yle that Russia can play the "Turkish card" and offer Turkey something.
"Russia may have such thoughts, but NATO membership is still very important for Turkey. I don't think there can be a split in the ranks of NATO."
If there is still a split in the ranks of NATO, NATO will show itself as a rather weak organization, notes Aaltola.
